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WORLDAFFAIRS MAR24,JavierSolanawasEUHighRepresentativeforForeignandSecurityPolicy,Secretary-GeneralofNATO,andForeignMinisterofSpain.Heiscurrently oftheESADECenterflobalEconomyandGeopoliticsandDistinguishedFellowattheBrookingsInstitution.MADRID–EvenMikhailGorbachev,whopresidedoverthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionwithscarcelyashotfired,hasproclaimedhissupportforRussianVladimirPutin’sannexationofCrimea.ThepeopleofCrimea,hesays,havecorrectedahistoricSovieterror.Gorbachev’ssentimentiswidelysharedRussia.AftertheSovietUnion’sdisintegrationin1991,Russiawentfromsuperpowertobackwater.Threeex-SovietrepublicsjoinedtheEuropeanUnionandNATO,assertingtheirdesirenotonlyfordemocracyandprosperity,butalsotoavoidbeingpartofRussiaeveragain.BymovingtoannexCrimea,Putin,supportedmassively–thusfar–bydomesticpublicopinion,seemstobeendingthepost-imperialfrustrationofthepasttwoSince1991,however,Russiaexplicitlyrecognizedtheterritorialintegrityofonseveraloccasions.Suchrecognitionwaspartofthe1992YaltaAgreement,whichdividedtheBlackSeafleet,andofthe1997leasingcontractthatallowedthefleettoremaininSevastopol.’sterritorialintegritywasalsorecognizedinthe1994denuclearizationagreement,signedbytheUnitedKingdom,Russia,andtheUnitedStates,andagaininApril2011,whenthen-ViktorYanukovychextendedtheSevastopollease.TheUkrainianconstitutionprohibitedthereferendumonindependencethatwascarried
outinCrimeainthepresenceofRussiantroops.WiththevotetoleaveandjointheRussianFederationillegalbyanyreckoning,theinternationalcommunity,astheEUhasdeclared,cannotaccepttheRelationsbetweentheEUandhavealwaysbeencomplex.TheAssociationAgreementthatYanukovychrejectedlastNovember–adecisionthatincitedthepopularsthatbroughtdownhisernment–hadbeenundernegotiationsince2007.Essentiallyafree-tradetreatywithadditionalpoliticalelements,itssigningwaspostponedbecauseoftheimprisonmentofformerPrimeMinisterYuliaTymoshenko.In,YanukovychacceptedRussia’scounter-offer:a30%reductioninthepriceofRussiangassand$15billiontostaveoffdefault.Russianeedsifitistobuildso-calledEurasianUnion,theeconomicblocthatPutinisseekingwithKazakhstanandBelarus.Unlikethepartiestoafree-tradeagreement,themembersofacustomsunionliketheonePutinenvisagessettradepolicywithrespecttothirdstatesthroughtheestablishmentofcommonforeigntariffs.Thus,’sincorporationwouldbepatiblewithitsEUAssociationRussiaand,however,alreadyhaveafree-tradeagreement,viatheCommonwealthofIndependentStatesfree-tradeagreementsignedinOctober2011,whichiscompatiblewiththeproposedEUAssociationAgreement–inthesamewaythatMexicomaintainsfree-tradetreatieswiththeEU,aswellaswiththeUSandCanada.thuscouldhavemaintainednormalrelationswithitsneighbors,withtheEU,andwithRussia.ButRussianeedsfornationalistaswellaseconomicreasons.RussiannationalismhasalwaysconsideredanextensionofRussiaitself,byvirtueofitbeinghometoplacesthatareamongthedearesttoRussianidentity.PutinhascalledKyiv“themotherofallRussiancities.”Sevastopol,inturn,isadoublyheroiccity:duringthesiegeoftheCrimeanWarinthenineteenthcenturyandduringWorldWarII.ButunderstandingRussia’sfrustrationsandsentimentsdoesnotexcuseinvasionandannexation.TheEUAssociationAgreementthreatenednoneofRussia’sinterests,whethereconomicorcultural.RelationsbetweentheEUandRussiacannotbebasedonzero-sumgamesorspheresofinfluence.Solutionsmustbefoundthatenablealltowin.Moreover,Russia’sannexationofCrimeawilllikelydamageitscoreinterest:itspoliticalrelationshipwith,whichitwantstokeepfarfromEurope.So,forEurope,themostimportantprioritynowistohelptoensurestabilityandprosperityintherestofTheandmostpressingissueisstabilize ernmentinKyiv.ialelectiononMay25willbeakeymoment.Thevotemustbefreeandfair,accordingtodemocraticstandards.Moreover,itisessentialthatthestaterespectsnationalminorities’linguisticandculturalrightsand
promotessocialinclusion.Europeanaidshouldbeconditionedon’sperformanceinthisarea.Second,giventhattheriskofisgreatestin’sRussophoneeast,anOSCEmissionshouldbedeployedtheretoensurestability,security,andrespectforminorities,andtocondemn,ifnecessary,violationsofspecifiedcommitments.Thethirdissue‒andperhapsthemostimportant‒isthepressingneedforeconomicaid.TheEUhaspreparedan€11billion($15billion)aidpackage,thoughitissubjecttorulesandconditionssetbytheInternationalMonetaryFund,whichiscontributingpartofthetotal.Though’seconomyiscollapsing,the ernmentmaintainsexcessivespendingonsubsidiesthatarepatiblewithIMFaid.Atpresent,forexample,the ernmentspendsasmuchas16%ofitsbudgettosubsidizethepriceofenergyforeverycitizen.RussiawillnotskimponspendingafterannexingCrimea,andCrimeanswillbenefitfromthataidandaccesstoche Thoughthetourismindustryislikelytobemoribundforsometime,RussiansubsidiesmayleaveCrimeansrelativelybetteroff,especiallyfromtheoftheirethnickinineastern.EUandWesternaidpackageswillneedtotakethisintoaccount.TheproblemofCrimeawillnotberesolvedquickly.ThoughPutindeclaredinhisannexationspeechthatCrimeaisan“inseparablepart”ofRussia,hisbehaviorwillturnagainsthim.HeandRussiawillsufferinternationalisolation,whileUkrainiansarelikelyto eevenmoreinsistentonchoosingtheirownpath.稳统·吞并克里米亚。用他的话讲,克里米亚人民纠正了一个历史的错误。的情绪在俄罗斯受到广泛的认同。1991年后,俄罗斯就从超级大国降格为穷乡僻壤。三个前加盟欧盟和北约,公开宣布他们不仅要实现和繁荣,还要避免以后再落入的魔爪。吞并克里米亚之举迄今为止受到国内的强大支持,似乎为前20年后但1991年以来,俄罗斯明确承认的完整性。这样的表态是1992年雅尔塔协定行塞瓦斯托波尔的1997年租赁合同。1994年由英、俄、美共同签署的协议再次于2011年4月时统亚努科维奇续签塞瓦斯托波尔租约时承认了的完整性。以何种标准衡量都以方式脱离加入俄,以欧盟为代表的国际社会宣布接受这一欧盟与之间的关系一直非常复杂。去年十一月被亚努科维奇 融入了政治因素的贸易协定,该协定的签署因为尤利
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