中国能源化工产业发展报告-中石化

1、CONTENTS1Increasing Petrochemicals apacity of hinaBooming Petrochemicals Market of hinaTrends and hallenges ncreasingPetrochemicals Capacity of ChinaPetBochem:calC G:antC Cooh:ng UA MajoB EFAanC:on foB Ch:na42 18: CNOOC & Shell JV2 2 : ZRPC2 21: CNPC2 23: EFFonMob:l O/C PBoject2 2 -2 25: Ha:nan Ref:

2、n:ng & Chem:cal2 2 : Hengl: PC2 21: NoBth HEaj:n PC2 21: R&SUN2 2 : GEle: PC2 2 : QEanGhoE PCTBD: FHC & SAB&C JV2 19 Zhej:ang PC PhaCe & &2 21: Shenghong PC2 2 -2 25: ZRCCBohai GulfYangtze River DeltaPearl River DeltaAnnounced Integrated Projects 2019-20252025C2 13.5/24%PX 13.3/30%2025C2 15.3/27%PX

3、20.2/45%2025C2 6.4/11%PX 2.0/4.5%4%11%14%22%0501001502002025FCapacity of ethylene and PX of China has reached 25MTA and 13.8MTA in 2018, which is expected to reach 53MTA and 40MTA by 2025, both ranking the 1st in the world.MTAOthersUSMiddle EastChina+10%250AAGR: 14%+8%World Ethylene Capacity and Reg

4、ional Share6%20%24%47%908070605040302010020002005201020152018 2020F2025FMTAAAGR: 19%+14%+9%20002005201020152018 2020FWorld PX Capacity and Regional Share5China mpowering the World Capacity GrowthChina alone contributes 50-70% of the new capacity during another two round of expansion in 2019 and 2023

5、.2007-20091996-20002012-20132018-20192021-2025Note: Basic chemicals including ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, PX and methanol14MTA21MTA15MTA30MTA25MTA11%45%69%55%44%ChinaMiddle EastUSOthersAverage Annual New Capacity of Basic PetrochemicalsBoomingPetrochemicals Marhet of hinaChina

6、Still the argest Petrochemicals Marhet7China still holds the largest share of world petrochemicals demand, which is expected to maintain a high growth after the recent booming period. Demand of synthetic resin, fiber and rubber is expected reach 135MTA, 60MTA and 3.2MTA respectively by 2025.16%30%38

7、%40%050100150200250300MTA3502000Others2010Middle East2019F2025FUSChinaAAGR:11%7%6%Share and Growth of Synthetic Resin Demand30%63%71%74%0102030405060708090MTA2000Others2010Middle East2019F2025FUSChinaShare and Growth of Synthetic Fiber Demand14%6.5%5.5%10%22%25%27%024681012MTA2000Others2010Middle Ea

8、st2019F2025FUSChina9.7%4.5%3.8%Share and Growth of Synthetic Rubber DemandChina riving the World emand Growth8AAGR of World Synthetic Resin, Fiber and Rubber Demand2.6%3.9%4.0%5.1%4.2%2007-20102011-20142015-20162017-20192020-20255.1%4.8%5.2%World petrochemicals demand are recovering from years befor

9、e, growth of which outruns the world GDP. China, as a key driver, is expects to hold 1% higher than the world average demand growth by 2025.8.0%China6.0%World Avg.China per capita consumption of petrochemicals is catching up with Japan and Europe in the coming years. But 43kg(in equivalent ethylene)

10、 still has a long way to go compared with South Korea(89-90kg) and U.S.(70-80kg).Consumption Still Shows reat Potential9Kg per personSouth KoreaUSJapan2018EuropeChinaGDP percapita, $1009080706050403020100010000200003000040000500006000070000Consumption per capita of Equivalent Ethylene vs GDP per cap

11、ita from 1990-202580000Aging Population VS Massive Urbanization10Massive urbanization is the best answer to the aging problem. Besides the second baby boom, we will see 170 million new citizens moving to cities by 2030, which means at least 250 billion $ new consumption and 2750 billion $ new invest

12、ment.250+ Billion $New Consumption2750+ Billion $New Investment20182030170 Million New Citizens110 Million New Elders(aged over 60)3-4 Million Second babies*estimatedExplosive Growth of E-commerce Boosting the Polymers Demand11Billions of online orders and catering services are creating a whole new

13、area for polymers consumption, which is growing by 20-30% each year and increasing the demand of polyolefins by 1-2%.Fast Delivery and atering Services Boosting the Polymers Demand50Billion Packages250-300KT PE/PP50-60KT PE/PP20%20-30%8 Billion OrdersNew Demand from Environmental Protection Business

14、12Recycling rate of China has been much higher than the average of the world, which makes it harder to get significantly improved in years, together with waste plastics import ban, increased the virgin PE demand by 0.7-1.0 million ton. While air-pollution control regulation has driven the natural ga

15、s pipeline demand by 10%.Waste Po-ymers Import and omestic Production03000600020152016KT9000New Polymers Replacement201720182019Waste Ethyl Polymers ImportWaste Ethyl Polymers ProductionAAGR: -12%0100200300400KT500201720182019New Consumption from Fuel Changing Policy PE Consumption for PipelineNatur

16、a- Gas Pipe-ine emand for Po-yo-efinsAAGR: 10.3%EU 30%China 25%World 18%U.S.9%Sources: Roland Geyer, Jenna R. Jambeck, Kara Lavender LawRecyc-ing Rates of Non-Fiber P-astics20152030659914512%10%8.9%Billion $A Prosperous Outlook for High Performance MaterialsConsumption upgrading promotes the high pe

17、rformance materials demand. A more than 10% growth will be expected in the coming years, and the revenue of this area will reach 145 billion $ by 2030, accountingfor 40-50% of the world.40Battery MaterialsConstruction ChemicalsEngineering PlasticsMedical PlasticsPackage MaterialsElectronic Materials

18、EVA &alpha-olefinsLiquid Crystal MaterialsHigh Performance Plastics20202025Revenue of China High Performance Materials IndustryC1/C2: Large Import Still ThereMethanol effective supply cannot fully meet the fast growing MTO and fuel demand, net export approaching 10 MT. Self-sufficiency of ethylene i

19、s rocketing, while more than 10MT of equivalent ethylene still has to be imported.Note:Self-Sufficiency Rate=Production/DemandMethanol Supply and emand of China0204060801002025MT1202019MTOFuelOthers2020Capcacity88%89%88%862018Self-Sufficiency0102030405060702018MT20202025PEEGSMEOPVCOthersCapcacityNot

20、e:Ethylene Demand including derivatives demand(in ethylene)Ethylene Supply and emand of China51%51%58%83%2019Self-SufficiencyC3/C4: Balance is on the Horizon010203040506070802018201920202025MTPP AN PO Phenol/Aceton Butanol/2-ethylhexanol Acrylic Others Capcacity77%82%83%93%Self-SufficiencyExpanding

21、propylene capacity and demand are getting near the balance point, while PP still needs import; Not only the large integrated projects but also the BDH has changed the whole landscape for butadiene.0123456720182025MT820192020BRSBRSBCsNBRABSOthersCapcacity73%75%107%97% Self-SufficiencyButadiene Supply

22、 and Demand of hinaNote:BD Demand including derivatives demand(in BD)Note:Propylene Demand including derivatives demand(in Propylene)Propylene Supply and Demand of hinaAromatics: Nearing the Overcapacity103%62%55%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030405060120%2018201920202025CapcacityDemandSelf-Sufficiency(R

23、HS)PX Supply and Demand of hina051015202530352018201920202025Extensive investment on PX has dramatically change the outlook for it, balanced or even overcapacity is expected by 2025. For benzene, import wont be absent, but potential increase of the capacity utilization clouded the market.MTMTCapcaci

24、ty82%85%90%88%Self-SufficiencySMNitrobenzeneCPLPhenolOthersBenzene Supply and Demand of hinaBalance across the SpectrumPolymers supply still cannot meet the demand by 2025, while some, especially the aromatics, will be facing the overcapacity pressure.-20000-15000-10000-500005000100001500020000-1000

25、00-75000-50000-250000250005000075000100000MethanolEthyl eneLDPEHDPELLDPEEGPropylenePPANPOAcetonen-butanol2-ethyl hexanolButadieneBRSBRPXPTAPETBenzeneSMPhenolCPLC1C2C3C4Balance of China Major Petrochemicals in 2025Aromatics,000 tonProductionDemandBalance(RHS)China18: 23MTA25: 28MTAIndia18: 3.0MTA25:

26、7.7MTAIn 2018, China polymers gap reach up to 23 MTA, which will be increased by at least 5 MT by 2025. Far more incremental imports will be expected than other areas.Gap till Widening Up18Polymers Balance Change of Major Import Areas from 2018-2025Africa18: 5.7MTA25: 7.8MTASouth America18: 4.4MTA25

27、: 6.5MTASouth Asia18: 2.4MTA25: 3.8MTA20182025Note: Polymers including synthetic resins, fibers and rubbers rends and ChallengesA Further Opening-up Market20A series of measures are implemented to reduce the market access barrier, which has attracted not only the domestic private investors but also

28、the foreign investors, like Saudi Aramco, SABIC to join the game.9%11%Private Investors 25%Foreign Investors 13%Ethylene Capacity Share 2018(inner circle) and 2025Ethylene26%7%Private Investors 50%Foreign Investors 7%PX Capacity Share 2018(inner circle) and 2025PXRemove restrictions on wholly foreig

29、n funded petrochemical companiesRemove restrictions on crude oil import of private companiesIntroduce mixed ownership to SOEsImplement negative list for market accessCut items requiring government review by 30%Cut taxes and administrative fees Lower the VAT from 17% to 13%A More Diversified MarketIn

30、 2019, Zhejiang and Hengli PC will bring the aromatics version of OTC on board, and ExxonMobil will bring the olefins version to Huizhou, China years later. Meanwhile the first ethane VLEC will arrive in China and the first ACO unit gets into production.China Ethylene Capacity Share by Process 2025C

31、hina Propylene Capacity Share by Process 2025Ethylene- Based 26%Coal-based 74%Ethylene GlycolChina Ethylene Glycol Capacity Share by Process 202521Naphtha Cracking 69%ACO 1%DCC 1%MTO 5%CTO 14%Ethane Cracking 5%LPG Cracking 3%OTC 2%EthyleneFCC 22%Naphtha Cracking 37%CTP 3%MTP 1%MTO 5%CTO 15%PDH 17%Pr

32、opylene0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%-200-150-100-500501001502002503002000200520102015202020252030Margin IndexSelf-sufficiency IndexProfitability Facing Temporary Downward Pressure22Overcapacity of some products will bring downward pressure to the overall profitability. As the rebalance goes on, the

33、self-sufficiency will decline again and the profitability will get rebound sometime after 2025.350100%Margin Index and Self-sufficiency Index of China Petrochemical Market2026-20272027-20282017-2018Rebalance PeriodGolden AgeAnother Cycle?Consolidation on the Way23Stricter environment regulations and

34、 fierce competition are forcing the disadvantages out of the games. Rapid decreasing small companies/units and climbing concentration ratio indicate the on-going consolidation.concentration ratio+27%-18%201624500201723300201821300201525200Numbers of enterprisesabove designated sizeTakeaways24As the

35、largest producer and consumer, China petrochemical market to maintain a steady annual demand growth of 6-7% and a capacity growth of 9-10% before 2025.Opportunitiesareemergingfrommassiveurbanization,consumptionupgrading,infrastructure construction, e-commerce, environmental protection business and f

36、urther opening up.China will take more imports from the Middle East and U.S., as the polymers gap of China will be widening up by 5 million tons by 2025.Steady economy and huge demand will help the market to get rebalanced quickly. And a rebound is expected sometime after 2025.Q&AChina Refining Indu

37、stry Outlook and Oil Demand Peak eport series of China energy and petrochemical industryXiaoming KEMarch 25, 2019CONTENTS1In the future: oil demand growth shifting from fuel- driven to petrochemical feedstock-driven3Transformation and upgrading of refining industry in China under a new round of inve

38、stment2The refining industry in China ranking among the top in the worldThe refining industry in China ranking among the top in the worldThe refinery capacity in China ranks among the top in the world, and is still in expansion4State-wned refineries increased ca.acity t- meet the gr-wing rigid deman

39、d Inde.endent refiners began t- accelerate their ex.ansi-n Structural adjustment is c-ming In 2018, Chinas refinery capacity came to 16.8 Mb/d. New capacity mainly came from independent refiners.In response to the upgrading of oil quality, refineries in China are becoming increasingly complex.25%43%

40、61%75%57%39%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100 %200 0-2008200 8-2014201 4-2018The share of new capacity from independent refiners is increasingJ%JState-owned refinery78%70%66%72%68%66%64%62%60%70%76%74%72%80%1675478%150002500035000 5622450005500065000750008500095000200020022004200620082010201220142016

41、2018Stages of growth in refinery capacity (kb/d)& (fl$CapacityCapacity incrementRefinery utilizationIndependent refineryThe increasing crude oil processing meets domestic demand5By 2018, Chinas refining throughput was 12.1 Mb/d, and the dependency on imported crude oil came to 70.8%.Since the releas

42、e of imported oil quotas in 2015, the growth rate of refining throughput has risen from 4.1% to 5.4%.The utilization rate of independent refineries increased from 30% in 2014 to 60% in 2018, and the share of imported crude oil in processing feedstock increased from 21% to 71%.80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10

43、%0%02468101214200020012002200320042005200620072008200%201020112012201320142015201620172018The crude oil processing volume is rising (million b/d)3 150fiflAAGR 8.3%AAGR 8.1%AAGR 4.3%AAGR 5.8%crude oil processing volumeDependency on imported crude21%24%45%58%71%55%58%49%37%25%20142015201620172018The b

44、ottleneck of crude oil for independent refineries is eliminated (10,000 tons)4#33%flImported crudeDomestic crudeOther sourcesUrgent issue: large numbers of refineries with small average capacity6By 2018, the average refinery capacity in China was only 87 Kb/d, which is only half of the global averag

45、e level.Excluding the outdated capacity of less than 40kb/d, the average utilization rate could be around 82% in 2018.54704915401002005006007005004514153Refining Technology Overall advanced, some leadingOil & Gas exploration and development theory as well as technology highlights characteristicsComp

46、lete technology series of modern coal chemical industryPetrochemical Technology Reaches or approaches the worlds advanced levelComplete technology series of megaton ethylene projectComplete technology series of highly efficient and environmentally friendly aromatic hydrocarbons(Sinopec technology se

47、ries of highly efficient and environmentally friendly aromatic hydrocarbons)5. The level of some energy and petrochemical technologies has entered advanced ranks in the worldCooperation WithExternal PartnersIndependent Innovation10( offshore drilling)(Exploration of Shale Gas at Fuling)Technology wi

48、th independent intellectual propertyCapacity to design and build ten-million-tons oil refineryComplete technology series of clean petroleum products productionConventional UnconventionalMarine Facies Continental Facies Onshore Offshore(Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company Ltd. )The New Pattern of l

49、ong-term Development of Energy and Petrochemical Industry in ChinaHigh-quality DevelopmentClothingFoodHousingTransportationFutureMeet the Requirement of High-quality DevelopmentIn the future, petroleum and petrochemical industry emphasized on satisfyingquality and efficiency requirementMore Sustaina

50、bleMore IntelligentCleanerHigher-endNew DevelopmentNew Drivers12PastMeet the Demand of Basic Necessities of LifeIn the past 40 years, petroleum and petrochemical industry emphasized on satisfyingquantity and speed requirement1323.344.396.91.411.411.361.442029current trillion dollar)thousand dollar)P

51、opulation(Billion) 1.40China will be able to maintain GDP growth rate at 6-6.5% by 2025. Also, the population will continue to grow and is expected to reach peak at 1.44 billion in 2029.Chinas Per Capita GDP will increase significantly. Compared to 2018, it will double in2025, triple in 2035, and se

52、ven times in 2050. 1.421.Steadily growing economy in China will constantly provide a sustained impetus for industrial growthGDP6.(13.6%15.420182020202520352050GDP Per Capita(9.91219368355.8%5.0%4.0%Source:The State Information CenterDevelopment Research Center of the State CouncilEDRI100908070605040

53、3020100The 1st New Driver: New urbanization and the rural vitalization strategy will inspire the potential of Chinas economic and industrial development60% in 2018USChina World70% in 2030 831 Million Urban Population1,018 Million Urban PopulationThe rural vitalization strategy will break the urban-r

54、ural dual structure and drive economic growth strongly.By the free flow of factors , the integration of urban and rural industries could be promoted, level of urbanization could be raised, the synergy of urban development and rural revitalization could be achieved.1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

55、1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050T)e (ap between C)ina s urbanization rate an% t)at o %evelope% countries )as narrowe% rapi%ly (%)Source:UN, National Bureau of Statistics of China, EDRI14 80% in 2050The 2nd New Driver: The rising middle class has become a strong d

56、river of consumption growth and industrial upgradingUrban residents consumption is upgrading along the path from necessary consumption to improved consumption to high-end consumption.Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China30.18.423.312.510.86.12.728.67.26.16.222.813.611.67.32.73.51.16.98.84.77

57、.99.09.6Food, Cigarette andC lothingDaily neces sities andResidentialTrans portation,Education, Culture andHealth CareOther Supplies andLiquorServiceCommunicationEnt ertainmentServices% of Consumpt ion Expenditure in 2013% of Consumpt ion Expenditure in 2017G rowth Rate in 2017Consumption UpgradeNec

58、e-ary on-umptionImproved on-umptionHigh-end on-umptionConsumption Expenditure Structure of Urban Residents (%)Three Hundred and Fifty Million in 2030Middle ClassOne Hundred Million in 201515Northeast China-Eastern Inner Mongolia Economic Zone“Belt and Road”Yangtze River Economic BeltGDP(%): Midwest

59、+ Northeast201735%205040%Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic Circle &Xiongan New AreaGDP(%):East + South201751%205046%The 3rd New Driver: The coordinated regional development strategy will provide a broader space for industrial further expansion16Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaHainan Pilot Fre

60、e Trade ZoneBoosted GDP by more than $7.5 trillion17The 4th New Driver: Technological revolution will foster new growth and promote the upgrading of traditional petroleum and petrochemical industriesEmerging Industry Developing and GrowingNew Business ModelNew Energy, New MaterialsClean Energy, Adva