案例分析发达国家和发展中国家的贸易条件课件

1、Chapter 5 The Standard Trade ModelIntroductionA Standard Model of a Trading EconomyInternational Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD CurveTariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RDSummaryAppendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves1Chapter 5 The Standard Tr

2、ade MIntroductionPrevious trade theories have emphasized specific sources of comparative advantage which give rise to international trade:Differences in labor productivity (Ricardian model)Differences in resources (specific factors model and Heckscher-Ohlin model)The standard trade model is a genera

3、l model of trade that admits these models as special cases.2IntroductionPrevious trade the5-1 A Standard Model of a Trading EconomyThe standard trade model is built on four key relationships:Production possibility frontier and the relative supply curveRelative prices and relative demandWorld relativ

4、e supply and world relative demandTerms of trade and national welfare35-1 A Standard Model of a TradProduction Possibilities and Relative SupplyAssumptions of the model:Each country produces two goods, food (F) and cloth (C)Each countrys production possibility frontier is a smooth curve (TT)The poin

5、t on its production possibility frontier at which an economy actually produces depends on the price of cloth relative to food, PC/PF.Isovalue lines(P94)Lines along which the market value of output is constant4Production Possibilities and RFigure 5-1: Relative Prices Determine the Economys Output(P95

6、)QIsovalue linesTT Cloth production, QCFood production, QF5Figure 5-1: Relative Prices DeFigure 5-2: How an Increase in the Relative Price of Cloth Affects Relative Supply(P96)Q1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2TT Cloth production, QCFood production, QF6Figure 5-2: How an Increase inRelative Prices and Deman

7、dThe value of an economys consumption equals the value of its production:PCQC + PFQF = PCDC + PFDF = VThe economys choice of a point on the isovalue line depends on the tastes of its consumers, which can be represented graphically by a series of indifference curves.7Relative Prices and Demand7Indiff

8、erence curves(P96)Each traces a set of combinations of two goods consumption that leave the individual equally well offThey have three properties:Downward slopingThe farther up and to the right each lies, the higher the level of welfare to which it correspondsEach gets flatter as we move to the righ

9、t8Indifference curves(P96)8TTFigure 5-3: Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Standard Model(P97) Cloth production, QCFood production, QFQDIndifference curvesFood importsCloth exports9TTFigure 5-3: Production, ConsIf the relative price of cloth, PC/PF , increases, the economys consumption choic

10、e shifts from D1 to D2.The move from D1 to D2 reflects two effects:Income effectSubstitution effectIt is possible that the income effect will be so strong that when PC/PF rises, consumption of both goods actually rises, while the ratio of cloth consumption to food consumption falls.10If the relative

11、 price of clothTTFigure 5-4: Effects of a Rise in the Relative Price of Cloth(P98)Q1VV1(PC/PF)1Q2VV2(PC/PF)2D2D1 Cloth production, QCFood production, QF11TTFigure 5-4: Effects of a RisThe Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of TradeTerms of trade The price of the good a country s exports divided

12、by the price of its imports.(P94)A rise in the terms of trade increases a countrys welfare, while a decline in the terms of trade reduces its welfare.(P98)12The Welfare Effect of Changes 案例分析:发达国家和发展中国家的贸易条件发达国家和发展中国家19721993年的贸易条件（单位出口价值/单位进口价值，1972年为100）年度7273747576777879808182发展中国家石油出口国1001132582

13、46259272248302412451450其他国家1001049990941029694918584发达国家1009887898886898680798013案例分析:发达国家和发展中国家的贸易条件发达国家和发展中国家发达国家和发展中国家19721993年的贸易条件（单位出口价值/单位进口价值，1972年为100)年度8384858687888990919293发展中国家石油出口国410412391206232192214243214201198其他国家8487858788929192929291发达国家828182907791919192949414发达国家和发展中国家19721993年

14、的贸易条件（单位出口Determining Relative PricesSuppose that the world economy consists of two countries:Home (which exports cloth)Its terms of trade are measured by PC/PFIts quantities of cloth and food produced are QC and QFForeign (which exports food) Its terms of trade are measured by PF/PCIts quantities o

15、f cloth and food produced are Q*C and Q*F15Determining Relative Prices15To determine PC/PF , one must find the intersection of world relative supply of cloth and world relative demand.The world relative supply curve (RS) is upward sloping because an increase in PC/PF leads both countries to produce

16、more cloth and less food.The world relative demand curve (RD) is downward sloping because an increase in PC/PF leads both countries to shift their consumption mix away from cloth toward food.16To determine PC/PF , one must Figure 5-5: World Relative Supply and Demand(P99)RSRDRelative priceof cloth,

17、PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*F(PC/PF)1117Figure 5-5: World Relative SupEconomic Growth: A Shift of the RS CurveIs economic growth in other countries good or bad for our nation?It may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports. It may mean increased comp

18、etition for our exporters.Is growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closely integrated world economy?It should be more valuable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market. It is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on

19、 to foreigners rather than retained at home.18Economic Growth: A Shift of thGrowth and the Production Possibility FrontierEconomic growth implies an outward shift of a countrys production possibility frontier (TT).Biased growthTakes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the other(P1

20、00)Can occur for two reasons:Technological progress in one sector of the economy Increase in a countrys supply of a factor of production19Growth and the Production PossFigure 5-6: Biased Growth(P100)TT1TT1TT2TT2Cloth production, QCFood production, QF(a) Growth biased toward clothCloth production, QC

21、Food production, QF(b) Growth biased toward food20Figure 5-6: Biased Growth(P100Relative Supply and the Terms of TradeExport-biased growthDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it exports(P101)Worsens a growing countrys terms of trade, to the bene

22、fit of the rest of the worldImport-biased growthDisproportionately expands a countrys production possibilities in the direction of the good it importsImproves a growing countrys terms of trade at the rest of the words expense21Relative Supply and the Terms Figure 5-7: Growth and Relative Supply(P102

23、)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1(PC/PF)1RS2(PC/PF)22Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS2RD2(PC/PF)2RS1(PC/PF)11(a) Cloth-biased growth(b) Food-biased growth22Figure 5-7: Growth and RelativInternational Effects of

24、 GrowthExport-biased growth in the rest of the world improves our terms of trade, while import-biased growth abroad worsens our terms of trade.Export-biased growth in our country worsens our terms of trade, reducing the direct benefits of growth, while import-biased growth leads to an improvement of

25、 our terms of trade.23International Effects of GrowtImmiserizing growthA situation where export-biased growth by poor nations can worsen their terms of trade so much that they would be worse off than if they had not grown at all(P102)It can occur under extreme conditions: Strongly export-biased grow

26、th must be combined with very steep RS and RD curves.It is regarded by most economists as more a theoretical point than a real-world issue.24Immiserizing growth24Table 5-1: Average Annual Percent Changes in Terms of Trade25Table 5-1: Average Annual Perc5-2 International Transfers of Income: Shifting

27、 the RD CurveInternational transfers of income, such as war reparations and foreign aid, may affect a countrys terms of trade by shifting the world relative demand curve.Relative world demand for goods may shift because of:Changes in tastesChanges in technologyInternational transfers of incomeThe Tr

28、ansfer ProblemHow international transfers affect the terms of trade265-2 International Transfers ofEffects of a Transfer on the Terms of TradeWhen both countries allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Ohlins point):The RD curve will not shift, and there will be no terms of trade

29、effect.When the two countries do not allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Keyness point):The RD curve will shift and there will be a terms of trade effect.The direction of the effect on terms of trade will depend on the difference in Home and Foreign spending patterns.27Effects

30、 of a Transfer on the TFigure 5-8: Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade(P106)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRSRD2RD1(PC/PF)221(PC/PF)128Figure 5-8: Effects of a TransMarginal Propensity to Spend: the change of a countrys expenditure divided by the cha

31、nge of its income.A transfer worsens the donors terms of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient.(P106)If the donor has a lower marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient,its terms of trade will actually improve.29Mar

32、ginal Propensity to Spend: Presumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of TransfersA transfer will worsen the donors terms of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient.In practice, most countries spend a much higher share of their income on

33、domestically produced goods than foreigners do.This is not necessarily due to differences in taste but rather to barriers to trade, natural and artificial.30Presumptions about the Terms o非石油国的发展中国家的贸易条件（1980100）1980100198195.0198294.4198393.5198495.1198592.831非石油国的发展中国家的贸易条件（1980100）19801Import tari

34、ffs(P109) and export subsidies (P109)affect both relative supply and relative demand.Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a TariffTariffs drive a wedge between the prices at which goods are traded internationally (external prices) and the prices at which they are traded within a country (internal p

35、rices).The terms of trade correspond to external, not internal, prices.5-3 Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD32Import tariffs(P109) and exporFigure 5-9: Effects of a Tariff on the Terms of Trade(P110)Relative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*

36、FRS1RD1RD2RS2 (PC/PF)11(PC/PF)2233Figure 5-9: Effects of a TarifEffects of an Export SubsidyTariffs and export subsidies are often treated as similar policies but they have opposite effects on the terms of trade.Example: Suppose that Home offers 20% subsidy on the value of cloth exported:This will r

37、aise Homes internal price of cloth relative to food by 20%.This will lead Home producers to produce more cloth and less food.A Home export subsidy worsens Homes terms of trade and improves Foreigns.(P111)34Effects of an Export Subsidy34Figure 5-10: Effects of a Subsidy on the Terms of Trade(P111)Rel

38、ative priceof cloth, PC/PFRelative quantityof cloth, QC + Q*C QF + Q*FRS1RD1RD2RS2(PC/PF)11(PC/PF)2235Figure 5-10: Effects of a SubsImplications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses?The International Distribution of Income(p111)If Home (a large country) imposes a tariff, its welfare in

39、creases as long as the tariff is not too large, while Foreigns welfare decreases.If Home offers an export subsidy, its welfare deteriorates, while Foreigns welfare increases.The Distribution of Income Within Countries(p112)A tariff (subsidy) has the direct effect of raising the internal relative pri

40、ce of the imported (exported) good.Tariffs and export subsidies might have perverse effects on internal prices (Metzler paradox).(p112)36Implications of Terms of TradeSummaryThe standard trade model provides a framework that can be used to address a wide range of international issues and admits previous trade models as special cases.A countrys terms of trade are determined by the intersection of the world relative supply and demand curves.Economic growth is usually biased. Growth that is export-biased (import-biased) worsens (improves) the terms of trade.37SummaryThe standard trade modeInte