日本物流业：三巨头的第业绩更新

1、Logistics: Big Threes 3Q Results UpdatePoised For Rerating On Six- To 12-Month HorizonAsia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Amid an uncertain environment, recommended investmentstrategy for the transport sector in 2019 comprises: 1) a barbell strategy combining marine transport with railways a

2、nd 2) a company-specific approach to logistics. Our order of preference subsectors is: railways marine transport logistics airlines. We expect logistics companies to see rising profits as service prices continue to correct upward, but share price outlook is tempered by:) waning upward momentum in se

3、rvice pricing,2) risk of slower freight movement following the upcoming consumption-tax hike, and 3) a potential reaction to 2018s share price gains. This has us advising a company-specific approach to the subsector and recommending Nippon Express, Hitachi Transport System, and Sankyuall Overweighta

4、s our top picks in view of company-specific catalysts for the first two and a longer-term growth story for the third.Nippon Expressbullish despite likely decline in FY2019 profits: Investors are concerned about 1) risk of a slowdown in the air freight business and 2) higher costs in FY2020 (“equal p

5、ay for equal work” implementation, system and other strategic expenditures). We think the former is not fully priced in and accordingly apply a more conservative valuation than previously. We expect the latter to be priced in with the February 22 announcement of the new medium- term business plan. W

6、e expect equal pay for equal work to add 10 billion in costs and result in profits declining YoY in FY2020. However, we also expect the new medium-term plan to target higher profit margins and an increase in RoE driven by asset sales and shareholder returns and accordingly look for investors to asse

7、ss it from a longer-termSankyupoised for stable growth: Our bullishness reflects: 1) ongoing demand for plant engineering and maintenance driven by superannuation, 2) rising profit margins (as shorter construction times and improved operating efficiency drive down CoGS and also as the company avoids

8、 unprofitable customers and raises prices), and 3) Sankyus leveraging of its strong staff mobilization capabilities to broaden customer domains and expand execution capabilities. While we see a shortage of near-term catalysts in expectation of profits falling sharply in 1Q FY2019 as the company come

9、s off a major year for shutdown maintenance in 2018, we look for profits to accelerate from 2Q as comps ease and new construction orders come into play. With the long-term growth scenario intactand the near-term earnings cycle poised to bottom, we think the shares have corrected enough to make thema

10、ttractive.Japan Equity Research Transportation, Real Estate, REIT Ryota Himeno AC(81-3) 6736-8639 HYPERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himeno Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Equity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ( bn)Price () Rat Curing PrevCur Price TargetEnd

11、DateEnd DateNippon Express (9062)9062 JT642.716,440OWn/c7,630Dec-198,350n/cSANKYU (9065)9065 JT326.085,000OWn/c7,000Dec-19n/cn/cHitachi Transport System (9086)9086 JT343.163,070OWn/c3,750Dec-193,500n/cSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change.All prices as of 08 Feb 19.See page 35 fo

12、r analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of

13、this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Ryota Himeno (81-3) 6736-8639 HYPERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himenoAsia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Hitachi Transport Systemm

14、erger with SG would be highly meaningful: Our bullishness reflects: 1) growth in the 3PL market; 2) the new (from FY2019) medium-term business plans inclusion of a growth story (encompassing not Japan but also overseas expansion and M&A); deepening synergies with SG Holdings. The company is already

15、seeing synergies with SG even at the current alliance level, but we think a full-scale merger could open the way to even (operational reorganization, joint investment, joint procurement) and any progress toward this end is therefore meaningful. While potential issues with combining corporate culture

16、s and operating schemes make it difficult to assess whether there will be any concrete progress in FY2019, think a merger would clear longer-term growthpotential.2Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Nippon Express (9062)7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 SANKYU (9065)16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Hitachi Tra

17、nsportSystem (9086)243Invest-mentShare price()PricetargetDeviationDividendMarketcapInvest-mentShare price()PricetargetDeviationDividendMarketcapTransaction value(million)P/E(X)19/3E20/3EP/B(X) 18/3A 19/3ESince 2000 High () Low ()opinionclosing price()yield(bn)9062 Nippon ExpressOW6,4407,63018.5%2.3%

18、642.71,55012.49,0602,6309065 SankyuOW5,0007,00040.0%2.0%326.16881.56,5003509086 Hitachi Transport SystemOW3,0703,75022.1%1.3%343.27251.53,225489Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimatesNote: Prices as of Feb. 8. We raise the risk premium to 6.0% from 5.5% for 3PL compa

19、ny ( Hitachi Transport System), which are currently seeing costs increasing in advance of price rises.Figure 2: TSE 33 industry indexes: Share-price performance last 3 months10%0%-10%-20% TXTL &APPRL PULP&PAPER OIL & COALPRODRUBBER GLSS &CRMC IRON&STEEL NONFERMETAL METALPRODUCTSELECTRICAPPL TRANSPOR

20、TEQUIP PRECINSTRUMENT OTHERPRODUCTS ELEC POWR&GAS LANDTRANSPRT MARINETRANAIRTRANSPORT WARE&HARB INFO&COMM WHOLESALE RETAILTRADESEC&CMDTYOTHERFINC REALESTATE Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8.Figure 3: Transportation Subsectors: Share-price performance last 3 months5%0%-5%-10%TO

21、PIXJRRailways (excl.Land TransportAir Transport WarehouseSource: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganJR)Transportand harbor TransportNote: Price as of Feb. 8. JR covers JR East, JR West, JR Central, and JR Kyushu; Private railway covers Tobu, Tokyu, Keikyu, Odakyu, Keio, Keisei, Seibu Holdings, Kintetsu Group Hol

22、dings, and Hankyu Hanshin; Logistics (ground transportation) covers Nippon Express, Yamato Holdings, SG Holdings, Senko Group Holdings, Nikkon Holdings, Fukuyama Transporting, Seino Holdings, and Hitachi Transport System; Marine transportation covers NYK Line, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen

23、; Air transportation covers JAL and ANA; Logistics (warehousing and transportation) covers Mitsubishi Logistics, Mitsui Soko Holdings, Sumitomo Warehouse, Kamigumi, and Kintetsu World Express; each group utilizes weighted averages.4JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Ryota Himeno (81-3) 6736-8639 HYP

24、ERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himeno0%-10%-20%Figure 6: Transportation Stocks: Share-price performance last 1 month20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Ryota Himeno (81-3) 6736-8639 HYPERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himeno0%-10%-20%Figure 6: Transportation Stocks: Share-price

25、performance last 1 month20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8Sector EASTJAPANRAIL WESTJAPANRAIL CENTRAL JAPANRLJR TOBU RAIL TOKYU Co. KEIKYUODAKYU ELECRAILKEIO KEISEI ELEC SEIBU KINTETSU GROUP H HANKYU HANSHINHSOTETSU KEIHANNANKAI ELECTRICRLNAGOYA NISHI-NIPPON R

26、L NIPPONEXPRESSYAMATOHDSG SANKYUINC SENKO GROUPHDNIKKON FUKUYAMATRANSPOSEINO HITACHITRANSPOR KONOIKETRANSPORTNIPPONYUSENKK MITSUIOSKLINES KAWASAKIKISEN JAPANAIRLINESANA MITSUBLOGISTICS MITSUI-SOKOHD SUMITOMOWAREHOUKAMIGUMI KINTETSUWORLDSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8.Sector E

27、ASTJAPANRAIL WESTJAPANRAIL CENTRAL JAPANRLSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8.JR KYUSHU TOBU RAIL TOKYU Co. KEIKYUCo.ODAKYU ELECRAILKEIO KEISEI ELEC SEIBU KINTETSU GROUP H HANKYU HANSHINHSOTETSU KEIHANNANKAI ELECTRICRLNAGOYA RAIL NISHI-NIPPON RL NIPPONEXPRESSYAMATOHDSG SANKYUINC

28、SENKO GROUPHDNIKKONHD FUKUYAMATRANSPOSEINOHD HITACHITRANSPOR KONOIKETRANSPORTNIPPONYUSENKK MITSUIOSKLINES KAWASAKIKISEN JAPANAIRLINESANA MITSUBLOGISTICS MITSUI-SOKOHD SUMITOMOWAREHOUKAMIGUMI KINTETSUWORLDAsia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Figure 4: Transportation Stocks: Share-price perform

29、ance last 12 months0%-20%-40%-60%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8.Figure 5: Transportation Stocks: Share-price performance last 3 months10%Sector EASTJAPANRAIL WESTAsia Pacific Equity Research12 February 2019Figure 4: Transportation Stocks: Share-price performance last 12 mont

30、hs0%-20%-40%-60%Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Note: Price as of Feb. 8.Figure 5: Transportation Stocks: Share-price performance last 3 months10%JR KYUSHU TOBU RAIL TOKYU Co. KEIKYUODAKYU ELECRAILKEIO KEISEI ELECSEIBU KINTETSU GROUP H HANKYU HANSHINHSOTETSU KEIHANNANKAI ELECTRICRLNAGOYA RAIL NISHI-N

31、IPPON NIPPONEXPRESSYAMATOHDSG SANKYUINC SENKO GROUPNIKKON FUKUYAMATRANSPOSEINO HITACHITRANSPOR KONOIKETRANSPORTNIPPONYUSENKK MITSUIOSKLINES KAWASAKIKISEN JAPANAIRLINESANA MITSUBLOGISTICS MITSUI-SOKOHD SUMITOMOWAREHOUKAMIGUMI KINTETSUWORLD55Figure 7: Global Valuation2/8/2019Market cap Share price per

32、formance (%)P/E(x)P/B(x) EV/EBITDAD/E ratio (%) ROE(%)(mn $)1M3M6M1Year FY18E FY19EFY18EFY19EFY18EFY19E6178 JPJAPAN POST HOLDINGS CO LTD53,6871.9%-4.4%5.6%1.9%1,607.03.03.09062 JPNIPPON EXPRESS CO LTD5,8582.7%-11.2%-8.5%-11.3%6.66.49064 JPYAMATO HOLDINGS CO LTD10,645-5.2%-6.6%-13.3%2.2%27.722.0-9143

33、 JPSG HOLDINGS CO LTD8,6322.2%5.6%21.7%31.6%22.420.92.712.312.09069 JPSENKO GROUP HOLDINGS CO LTD1,1900.0%-3.9%-3.2%11.1%7.26.889.210.010.29072 JPNIKKON HOLDINGS CO LTD1,6871.5%-7.2%-6.8%-3.3%12.512.01.07.27.09076 JPSEINO HOLDINGS CO LTD2,8184.1%-8.8%-23.3%-15.0%13.84.1-9086 JPHITACHI TRANSPORT SYST

34、EM LTD3,1280.2%2.6%0.8%14.6%8.78.344.510.210.29301 JPMITSUBISHI LOGISTICS CORP2,072-1.7%-4.2%3.4%-0.4%20.518.80.810.810.39302 JPMITSUI-SOKO HOLDINGS CO LTD4461.7%-4.0%3.4%13.9%9.18.6275.711.010.99303 JPSUMITOMO WAREHOUSE CO LTD1,103-1.6%-3.5%4.4%-6.8%17.714.30.710.59.59364 JPKAMIGUMI CO LTD2,9557.7%

35、3.1%5.4%3.3%7.27.0-16.05.55.59375 JPKINTETSU WORLD EXPRESS INC1,057-2.4%-13.1%-29.3%-29.6%6.86.5AMZN USAMAZON.COM INC780,138-4.1%-9.5%-15.8%17.6%43.632.017.918.714.518.526.228.0UPS USUNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B92,75011.0%-3.0%-10.3%-1.1%10.29.4490.5107.977.9FDX USFEDEX CORP46,2676.1%-22.7%-27.8%-25.9

36、%7.06.468.620.020.2R USRYDER SYSTEM INC3,07510.5%1.8%-26.2%-27.3%10.04.5188.110.510.5EXPD USEXPEDITORS INTL WASH INC12,2754.8%-2.3%-3.1%17.8%21.520.76.313.412.6-52.729.529.4CHRW USC.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE INC12,4257.9%-1.1%-5.9%-0.1%18.016.97.812.512.060.740.537.6ZTO USZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR13,04

37、08.3%6.4%-8.9%20.5%13.410.9-48.515.414.5BSTI USBEST INC - ADR1,7755.6%-20.2%-46.2%-44.2%-22.32.7297.67.9-54.1-9.812.5002468 CHSTO EXPRESS CO LTD-A4,32417.6%0.5%18.9%-20.0%9.18.2-65.124.320.8600233 CHYTO EXPRESS GROUP CO LTD-A5,03618.3%8.5%-4.8%-18.4%19.516.83.312.310.7-38.615.815.9002120 CHYUNDA HOL

38、DING CO LTD-A8,71016.1%6.7%1.8%10.7%16.514.4-70.527.522.5002352 CHS F HOLDING CO LTD-A20,833-2.8%-15.8%-25.3%-31.0%29.625.04.016.012.7-27.212.813.3PWTN SWPANALPINA WELTTRANSPORT -REG3,93423.9%35.6%15.2%13.5%15.213.5-49.613.618.3KNIN EUKUEHNE + NAGEL INTL AG-REG15,9631.5%-4.3%-16.8%-17.2%20.418.97.61

39、2.912.0-30.232.934.2RMG LNROYAL MAIL PLC3,508-5.3%-22.6%-40.7%-48.1%10.37.6DPW GRDEUTSCHE POST AG-REG35,4861.5%-11.4%-18.5%-29.9%14.06.117.817.919.9SPOST SPSINGAPORE POST LTD1,5781.1%-5.0%-20.2%-34.0%11.911.3-PNL NAPOSTNL NV1,1584.0%-9.6%-26.9%-43.8%6.95.9-124.3288.8132.3BPOST EUBPOST SA1,757-1.6%-3

40、4.7%-42.7%-71.2%3.54.037.634.927.4Land transportation-0.9%-8.5%-14.1%9.2%34.826.415.016.712.9-21.130.429.1Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganNote: Estimates are those of Bloomberg.6Overweight9062.T,9062 JTPrice: 6,440 Price Target: 7,630Previous: 8,350JapanTransportation, Real Estate, REIT Ryota Himeno A

41、C(81-3) 6736-8639 HYPERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himeno Bloomberg JPMA RHIMENO JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.Price Performance9,5008,500 7,5006,5005,500Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 9062.T share price ( TOPIX (rebased)Nippon Express (9062)Medium-term Plan Announcement Could Exhaust Ba

42、d News, Shift Focus To Longer TermConclusion: We lower our price target to 7,630 from 8,350 as we revise our earnings forecasts and target valuation. This still implies substantial upside, and we reiterate our Overweight rating. The shares rebounded a bit following strong 3Q results and a share buyb

43、ack announcement but remain a distinct laggard in our view. Investors are concerned about 1) risk of a slowdown in the air freight business and 2) higher costs in FY2020 (“equal pay for equal work” implementation, system and other strategic expenditures). We think the former is not fully priced in a

44、nd accordingly apply a more conservative valuation than previously; note that any top-line decline for air freight also implies lower costs and is therefore unlikely to be fatal. We expect the latter to be priced in with the February 22 announcement of the new medium-term business plan. We expect eq

45、ual for equal work to add 10 billion in costs and result in profits declining YoY in FY2020. However, we also expect the new medium-term plan to target higher profit margins an increase in RoE driven by asset sales and shareholder returns and accordingly look investors to assess it from a longer-ter

46、mperspective.YTD1m3m12mAbs5.2%2.7%-11.2%-11.3%Rel2.2%1.3%-2.8%1.5%FY2018 guidance looks conservative, but we are also not overly optimistic: forecast FY2018 operating profit of 77.3 billion (+10% YoY; guidance and our previous forecast 77 billion). This implies a 7% YoY decline for 4Q. While guidanc

47、e strikes us as conservative based on trends through 3Q, we are also not overly optimistic in view of profits in the core air freight business having already turned to decline in December. OverseasoperationsareonaDecemberfiscalyear-endYTD1m3m12mAbs5.2%2.7%-11.2%-11.3%Rel2.2%1.3%-2.8%1.5%Now expect p

48、rofits to decline in FY2019: We now forecast FY2019 operating profit of75.9 billion (1.8% YoY; previously 78 billion). We factor in a sharper slowdown in air freight and higher-than-anticipated costs. We now expect “equal pay for equal work” initiatives being implemented from April 2022 to add 10 bi

49、llion in costs (previously 5 billion). The company has 11,00012,000 non-full-time employees. While a portion of these costs will be offset by natural disaster rebound (+2.36 billion), gross profits from One Stop Service, an upward correction in service pricing, and reduced SG&A spending, we see risk

50、 of them combining with the slowdown in air freight to drive profits lower YoY.NIPPON EXPRESS CO., LTD. (Reuters: 9062.T, Bloomberg: 9062 JT)Company Data2016/32017/32018/32019/3 E2020/3 E2021/3 EPrice()6,440Sales ( mn)1,909,1051,864,3011,995,3172,153,4002,197,2002,235,800Date Of Price08-Feb-19Operat

51、ing Profit ( mn)54,77857,43170,26977,30075,90079,100Market Cap (bn)642.71Recurring Profit ( mn)62,39463,80674,39582,80081,40084,200Market Cap ($ bn)5.82Net Profit ( mn)35,65936,4546,53450,00049,10050,800Shares O/S (mn)100EPS ()356.26379.6868.06520.79511.42529.1252-weekRange()9,130-5,660P/E (x)18.117

52、.094.612.412.612.2TOPIX1,539P/BV (x)1.11.01.0DPS ()145.00Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Dividend Yield2.3%ROE9.2%Price Target ()7,630Price TargetEndDate31-Dec-197Nippon Express (9062)Company ProfileNippon Express is a global logistics company with a comprehensive logistics ne

53、twork spanning railways, ground- delivery vehicles, ocean transport, and air transport. Its core services are logistics, international mixed transport, express transport, and international air cargo. Nippon Express is also a major moving company in Japan. The home delivery business was sold to Japan

54、 Post. Other operations include passenger vehicle and cargo vehicle sales, leasing, and maintenance, as well as real estate leasing.Operating Profit Mix by Segment (FY2017)SecurityTransportation3%LogisticsHeavySupport(SouthHaulage Asia&OceaniaConstruction)5%4%LogisticsLogistics59%(EastAsia)Logistics

55、2%(Americas)Logistics(Europe)5%Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan.Investment Thesis Risk Analysis Upside Scenario to Target Price/RatingFair pricing leads to marginimprovementProfit margins rise on weight differential profits(lowering of unit cost by carrying more) in air cargo, pass-through of costs

56、 topricesGreater shareholder returns through share buybacks and othermeansDownside Scenario to Target Price/RatingFair pricing is not enough to offset costincreasesAir freight export volume declines, marginsdeteriorateM&A at high valuations that damage corporate value, investments with low expectedr

57、eturnsConsensus OP forecasts versus our estimates billionJ.P. MorganConsensusFY2018E77.377.4 FY2019E75.980.3Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Note: Consensus is based on BloombergValuationOur price target of 7,630 is based on our FY2018 BPS estimate of 5,791 and a theoretical P/B of 1.32x (F

58、Y2019E RoE of 8.6% divided by 6.5% cost of equity). Our previous price target was 1.42x FY2018E BPS of 5,866 (FY2019E RoE of 8.3% divided by 5.8% CoE). The change in cost of equity reflects an increase in risk premium to 6.0% from 5.5%. The time horizon of our target is December 2019.GDP Growth Assu

59、mption FY3/19FY3/20RealGDPgrowth0.7%0.7%Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.Peer Valuations Based on Bloomberg ConsensusCompany nameBloombergTickerCurrencyPricePrice dateMarket Cap($mn)P/E(x)FY18EFY19EFY20EPBR(x)FY18EFY19EFY20EROE(%)FY18EYamato Holdings Co Ltd9064 JPJPY2,840Feb-0810,60027.722.019.21.921.8

60、21.707.3SANKYU9065 JPJPY5,000Feb-082,95912.431.401.2713.0Seino Holdings Co Ltd9076 JPJPY1,489Feb-082,80613.820.690.665.4Nippon Express Co Ltd9062 JPJPY6,440Feb-085,83313.112.512.01.061.000.958.6SENKO Group Holdings9069 JPJPY854Feb-081,1851.091.030.9710.0Hitachi Transport System9086 JPJPY3,070Feb-083