飞轮电池生产计划的制定

1、31/31飞轮电池生产计划的制定1.市场需求预测2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析3.生产方式的经济分析和比较4.制定综合生产计划5.生产能力的粗平衡6.制定主生产计划7.制定MRP,CRP8.生产能力的精平衡9.零件工序卡编制10.产品装配工序卡编制1/27Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Month1234Demandforecast122432291.市场需求预测（Marketforecast）实验数据根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一

2、月份市场需求量比较接近而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584误差分析R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)F

3、ORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型进行预测预测结果如下：2/27零件代号零件名称零件材料

4、零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-04电磁铁铁芯DW314-50锻造1MLF-07-05电磁铁侧夹紧发兰铝合金铸造车削精铣钻孔、扩孔精车2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铝合金铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01盘片45铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-02磁环电工纯铁模锻车削铣削1MLF-0

5、9-03压环45铸车削铣削钻孔、2SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019误差分析：R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORA

6、LLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)3/27造扩孔3.生产方式的经济分析与比较(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每

7、月最多生产28台。首先,计算计划一年雇用、解雇的工人数量和在这一年的平均库存。1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersWorkershiredWorkerslaidrequiredoffLevel1122472018capacitywith224247200inventoryMatchingdemand33224720042924720011212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoryBeginninEndingAverageAverageadding

8、orginventorinventorinventorsubtractioninventoryyyperypermonthyear121022160222222(8)221418(5)14911.5000000000000000016.87504/27AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractionc

9、ostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matchingdemand4854037200(4+1)*180012720然后,计算两种方案的成本：1234567备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost

10、=（4+1）*1800=9000再考虑到工人工资，总的费用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Costofmatchingdemand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5。Levelcapacity比Matchingdemand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本是600*2.5=1500外协：每台是1800因为对于matchingdemand中第三月和第四月共缺5台

11、，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过外协和加班两者的比较可以看出，两者的费用差不多，但考虑到Levelcapacity的生产方式比Matchingdemand生产方式更加稳定；Levelcapacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Levelcapacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，我选择Levelcapacity生产方式。5/271234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequ

12、iredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Month1Month2Month3Month41234123412341234Totaldemand12243229Beginninginventory10222214Required6666666666666666Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Load(hours)42004200

13、42004200Capacity(hours)49004900490049004.制定综合生产计划(AggregatePlanning)5.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)生产能力粗平衡生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(MasterProductionSchedule)LevelCapacity：主生产计划6/27012数量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF

14、-111MLF-12productionEndinginventory22221497制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)7.1MRP制定各个零件选择用LotForLot的生产方式，用软件POM计算可得：*MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)*=PROBLEMNAME:Untitled=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize00001080LFL7/27WeekNumber:1

15、2345678GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666Pla

16、nnedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0311000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts000000008/27Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:9101112

17、13141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0512000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceip

18、ts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts466666669/27PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHO

19、RDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070010000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases4666666610/27WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements6666

20、6666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070322000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000Net

21、Requirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts0000000011/27Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderRele

22、ases18181818181800*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070421000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases301818181818

23、1818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts181818181818181812/27PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize

24、070522000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts0000

25、0000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800*RUSHORDER*13/27=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070621000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements2436363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Availab

26、le00000000NetRequirements2436363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts2436363636363636PlannedOrderReleases6036363636363636*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements3636363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3636363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts3636363636363636PlannedO

27、rderReleases363636363636360*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize14/27090010000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666WeekNumber:910

28、111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090122000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements4666666615/27ScheduledReceip

29、ts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER

30、*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090221000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements4666666616/27PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirem

31、ents66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090322000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available

32、00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*17/27WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLea

33、dOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize1111000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:91011121314151618/27GrossRequirements66666666Sche

34、duledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660*RUSHORDER*=ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize1212000LFLWeekNumber:12345678GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequire

35、ments46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666*RUSHORDER*WeekNumber:910111213141516GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts0000000019/27Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600*RUSHORDER*=PLANNEDORDERRELEASESCHEDULE:We

36、ekNumber:12345678ItemCode:*RUSH*0046666666034666666660510666666660700466666660703301818181818181818070412181818181818181807053018181818181818180706243636363636363636090046666666090110666666660902466666666090310666666661146666666612106666666620/27零件名称外壳外转子电机套筒电磁铁外侧夹紧法兰电磁铁铁芯电磁铁侧夹紧法兰电磁铁夹紧装置盘片磁环压环电器定位板底

37、板工序工时数15.921.226.55.326.515.921.215.921.215.915.9WeekNumber:910111213141516ItemCode:*RUSH*00666666660346666666005106666660007006666666607033018181818181800070412181818181818180070530181818181818000706243636363636363600900666666660901106666660009024666666600903106666660011466666660121066666600=7.2CRP

38、制定因为生产一个成品需要80个工序，故平均一个工序需要425/80=5.3125小时。由此可得出各个零件所需工时如下表所示：21/27零件代号生产量第一个月第二个月1周2周3周4周5周6周7周8周MLF-0366666666MLF-0566666666MLF-07-031818181818181818MLF-07-041818181818181818MLF-07-051818181818181818MLF-07-063636363636363636MLF-09-0166666666MLF-09-0266666666MLF-09-0366666666MLF-1166666666MLF-12666

39、66666零件代号生产量第三个月第四个月9周10周11周12周13周14周15周16周MLF-0366666600MLF-0566666600MLF-07-0318181818181800MLF-07-04181818181818180MLF-07-0518181818181800MLF-07-0636363636363600MLF-09-0166666600MLF-09-0266666660MLF-09-0366666600MLF-1166666660MLF-126666660022/27由MRP可知各零件每周的需求量，如下表所示：零件代号工时第一个月第二个月MLF-0391.891.891

40、.891.891.891.891.891.8MLF-05127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-07-03318477477477477477477477MLF-07-0495.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4MLF-07-05477477477477477477477477MLF-07-06572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4MLF-09-01127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-09-0295.495.495.495.495

41、.495.495.495.4MLF-09-03127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2MLF-1195.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4MLF-1295.495.495.495.495.495.495.495.4生产所需时间2222.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.42381.4生产可提供时间3081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.253081.25剩余工时858.85699.85699.85699.85699.85699.85699.

42、85699.85零件代号工时第三个月第四个月MLF-0391.891.891.891.891.891.891.80MLF-05127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-07-0347747747747747747700MLF-07-0495.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-07-0547747747747747747700MLF-07-06572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.4572.40MLF-09-01127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-09-0295.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-09-03127.2127.2127.2127.2127.2127.200MLF-1195.495.495.495.495.495.495.40MLF-1295.495.495.495.495.495.400根据以上表格，计算每个月每周所需要的工时23/27零件代号第一个月第二个月MLF-0046666666MLF-07-0046666666MLF-09-0046666666所需装配能力540810810810810810810810总装配能力122512251225122