word或wps报告简易模板

1、Investment Valuation of YILI Group Through theanalysis of the macro economyto find theideal investmentperiod,investors need tofindsatisfactoryinvestment industrythrough the industry analysis. The definition of the industry:is an enterprisegroup,members of theenterprisegroupas a result of its product

2、sfor consumersin the very great degreecould be substituted each otherin aconnectedstate,anddue to the difference ofproduct substitutabilityandother enterprisesgroup phasedifference.According to the United Nationsinternationalstandard industrial classificationof all economic activitiesindex:the Yilig

3、roup belongs to thewholesale and retail,food andhotel industryin the catering industry.Mengniu,GuangmingareYili hasstrong competitivenessin the industrycompetitors.Sensitivity to the Business Cycle:The threemain factors to determine thesensitivityof the economic cycle: the first isthe sensitivity of

4、secondsales,the second isoperating leverage, the third isfinancial leverage .Sensitivity of sales:sensitivity to the business situation of necessities sensitivity is low, such as food, medicine and medical services, on the contrary, machine tools, steel, automotive and transportation are highly sens

5、itive to the state of the economy. Dairy products belonging to the food industry, relatively low sensitivity to the business situation, the risk is relatively low.Operating leverage: refers to the difference between the fixed and variable costs. Variable costs are relatively high sensitivity to the

6、economic environment of enterprises is relatively low, high fixed costs of the company, operating leverage is high, economic situation, any slight change will have a huge impact on its profitability.Industry analysis In order to quantify the operating leverage, enterprises regard metrics quantify th

7、e sensitivity of operating profit to enterprise sales change called the degree of operating leverage, DOL percentage of enterprises in a specific output or sales level is the business profit changes caused by the percentage change in the ratio of output or sales profit changes in the. ThereforeAnd b

8、usiness lever coefficient can be expressed by the following formula:DOL=Percentage change in profits / Percentage change in salesBusiness lever coefficient is big business risk is more big, if the unit price and increase sales, it is equivalent to get more profits; business risk will be more small,

9、business lever coefficient is low, so its and business lever coefficient in the opposite direction of change. Companies can increase sales, reduce the unit variable cost and fixed cost and other measures to reduce operating leverage and business risk. From the table we can see the Erie company.From

10、that, that operating leverage is there, have certain management risk, operating leverage plays a certain role,Compared with 2013, Yili company in 2012, total turnover growth of 13.78% over the same period, pre tax profit growth rate of 64.58%, Yili dairy uses capacity of operating leverage are to be

11、 improved, the interests of the operating lever is not very high.Industry analysis Financial leverage: reflects the using situation of the debt, interest payments on the debt situation has nothing to do with sales, so it can be regarded as can increase the fixed cost sensitivity. In the economic dev

12、elopment process, the companys investment rate of return than the interest, improve the financial leverage for the benefit of the company, financial leverage ratio is different in different industries.The conditions of enterprises operating liabilities and capital structure is constant, regardless o

13、f how much profit, interest on the debt is constant. So the profit before interest and tax changes, fixed capital cost will be 1 yuan per profit before interest and tax burden of the corresponding decrease or increase, thus brings certain financial leverage gains or losses to ordinary shareholders.D

14、enote by DFL the financial leverage, financial leverage coefficient = per ordinary share profit rate of change / earnings before interest and tax rate of change.From the above2012-2010yearsErielever coefficientis slightly greater than 1,with smaller magnitudeof earnings per shareforprofit before int

15、erest and taxchanges,the liabilities of a businessinterestin smaller,financial leverage effectis not obvious,andillustrate the potentialfinancial risks ofsmallenterprises.Butprofits by a large margin,2013Yilifell,interest expensehas increased,visible2013Eriefacing greaterfinancial risk.Industry anal

16、ysis Sector Rotation:Sector Rotation is the expected performance of the business cycle according to the condition of excellence in the industry or sector, and make the investment portfolio is inclined to the industry or sector.A description of the economic cycle, close to the position of the peak, o

17、verheating, inflation and higher interest rates, greater upward pressure on basic consumer goods. It is a good time to Yili Group, this time not to invest in the group, dairy products also belong to more basic consumer goods, while the inflation rate higher prices will be relatively high, will reduc

18、e the sales, the company also is not easy, this is more suitable for natural resource extraction and processing industries.Wave after the economy into recession, systolic or, at this time, medicine, food and other necessities to cycle less sensitive, may create a better performance. This time invest

19、ment Yili company is a more appropriate time. The dairy industry belongs to the more general food, less sensitive to economic cycles, in the economic contraction turnover will not have too much influence, is a good investment opportunity.In the period of economic recession, in order to maintain the

20、economic equilibrium and economic recovery and prosperity ready, Ordinary Company will come to meet the expected demand growth through the purchase of new equipment, this time can invest in machinery, transportation or construction investment capital industry, relatively speaking this time investmen

21、t Yili company income, food industry development in this period of time is not.When the economy entered a period of prosperity, the rapid development of economy. Durable goods and luxury goods and other cyclical industry will be in this period the most profitable industry, at the same time, the food

22、 industry will get better development opportunity at this time also, is also a good choice for investment in this period the Yili company.Industry analysis Industry life cyclesThe earnings of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Limited by Share Ltd from 2003 to2013：The analysis of Start-Up StageDec

23、ember 1992, on the basis of Huimin Milk Food Factory on joint-stock reform, the 21 sponsors set up in Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Co., Ltd. (Yili Group) by the absorption of other corporate and employee shares in private placement. Start-up phase of the Yili Group is facing fresh milk, milk powde

24、r, cold drinks and other technological innovation and R & D needs for funds, are also facing weak financing, intense competition in the industry, as well as the recovery of funds, such as the risk of recurring difficulties. Due to the low level of start-up phase of corporate credit, the poor liquidi

25、ty， the limited ability of mortgage assets, and the liabilities is lack of credit and guarantees to support the financing, it is difficult to obtain bank loans, plus dairy is also a greater risk of a new type of investment industry, most of the investment were not optimistic about its prospects. The

26、refore, Yili Group in 1996 before the venture capital mainly from entrepreneurs and venture capital.Industry analysis The analysis of Consolidation Stage 1997, Inner Mongolia Yili Group Castle Dairy Holdings company, Inner Mongolia Yili Group was formally established, the acquisition marked the comp

27、any entered a rapid growth phase. Yili Group on the rapid development of annual growth in share capital, 1997-2002 Changes in Yili Group shares as shown in Table 1 mainly.1997-2002, Yili Group employee shared by listed turn allotment of a substantial increase in the tradable A shares and the total s

28、hare capital, to further expand its competitive edge in the stock market. In 2002 ,the issuance of A shares listed, raised 800000000 yuan of funds, for the Erie to expand the production scale, product structure adjustment, theestablishment of a national logistics distribution system and a modern mar

29、keting system with a strong financial guarantee.Industry analysis In addition, Yili Group industry in 2002, the main business profit and net profit were 1318610000 yuan and 141950000 yuan, a growth of 69.83% and 18.61% respectively than 2001s 776430000 yuan and 119680000 yuan. Thus, the consolidatio

30、n stage of Yili Group financial management goal is the embodiment of the profit maximization, the financial strategy with fast expansion characteristic of high liabilities, high equity expansion, decentralized investment, cash dividend.The analysis of Maturity StageAfter the pioneering period and de

31、velopment period of accumulation , Yili Group industry ,has formed a greater competitive advantage in the dairy market, the company decentralization financial governance mode gradually formed, ownership and management separation occurred gradually. From the beginning of 2003, Yili Group industrys ma

32、in business income is the highest in the industry , leading Chinas dairy with strong strength, its income 2003-2007 as shown in table 2.The main business income of 8734990975.76 yuan in 2004 , compared to the main business income of 6299333498.19 yuan in 2003 ,achieved a rapid growth of main busines

33、s income. Although the main business income rose 38.67%, the operating costs were relatively high , net profit rose only 19.81%.In 2005, the Yili Group industrys main business revenue grew 39.38%, profits grew 29.75%, Industry analysis net profit rose 22.69%, 2005 annual return shows that the abilit

34、y of the Yili Group industry has been greatly improved. Only the first half of 2006, Yili Group industry to achieve the main business income of 7933000000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.17%; net profit of 202000000 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.17%; The increase of the main business costs a

35、nd operating expenses under the 2006 year let the net profit decreased, but the overall corporate income is higher. In maturity, Yili Group also began to enter the payback period, due to the dairy market share steady, stable profitability, cash flow and smooth, relatively stable financial status, in

36、vestment in research and development capabilities to enhance financial management objectives maturity embodied Yili Group is enterprise value maximization, its financial strategy is with the low debt, diversified investment, the dividend distribution steady characteristics.The analysis of Relative D

37、ecline From 2008 to 2010, Yili Group in a relatively recession, the financial situation worse: in 2008 ，the melamine incident occurred, Yili Group sales significantly reduced, the annual revenues of 21,658,590,273.00 yuan less than the operating costs 23,728,616,581.74, resulting in operating profit

38、 -2,050,011,862.52 yuan, net profit -1,736,710,918.87 yuan ; Although the profit of 2009 had a growth in 2008 and 2007, but the growth rate in 2009 was 10.66% of accounts receivable, it is easy to deduce Yili Group profit growth at this time may be related to a significant increase in accounts recei

39、vable ; prepayments decreased from 497,010,521.03 yuan in 2007 to 283,946,051.86 yuan in 2008， indicating that the long-standing relationships between the company and its suppliers and customers was destroyed, the loss of consumer confidence would make Yili Group develop difficulty in the future ; F

40、rom 2008 to 2009， borrowing short-term changed little, tended to decrease overall, long-term borrowing substantial increase 100.86%Industry analysis the impact of the melamine incident had led to Yili Group to increase the long-term borrowings to reduce the financial risk of short-term loans .The an

41、alysis from 2011 to 2013Yili shares of the companys net profit from 2011 to 2013 is not bad in the overall situation , but the net profit in 2012 than in 2011 declined little. In 2012, net profit attributable to equity holders of 1.717 billion yuan, compared with 1.809 billion yuan in 2011 ，fell 5.0

42、8 percent. Yili Group said that if it got rid of the factor of the disposal of long-term equity investment income in the same period last year, the actual net profit rose nearly 10%. The Yili Group CEO, Zhang Jianqiu ，said: Our company in the industry did not invest outside the main action in 2012,

43、and the disposal of long-term equity investment in 2011 earlier had invested 240 million yuan, getting rid of the factors, the actual 12-year net profit rose nearly 10 percent .Industry analysis The one index :Moving Average for YiLi Group.The Moving Average of a stock index over a given interval of

44、 time as each week ,the moving average is recomputed by dropping the oldest observation and adding the latest. Each observation represents the closing level of the DJIA on the last trading day of the week. The 5-week moving average for each week is the average of the DJIA over the previous 5 weeks.I

45、mplications for investors:Compare weekly price (or daily price) and MA, identify the trends:MA below weekly price line during primary rising trend MA above weekly price line during primary falling trendSee how they cross between each other to identify the changes- weekly price line crosses long-term

46、 MA from above, bearish signal, as the second Heart-shaped point, and imply the point is sell point. -weekly price line crosses long-term MA from below, bullish signal, as the first Heart-shaped point and imply the point is buy point.So the Heart-shaped point and imply that the stock trends will Cha

47、nges.Chart (technique) analysis.Chart (technique) analysis.The second index :Support and Resistance Level for YiLi Group.Resistance and support level in a rising trend, and then the breakout point of resistance line: a rising trend selling signal.Resistance and support level in a falling trend, and

48、then the breakout point of resistance line: a rising trend buying signal.Chart (technique) analysis. The definition of Resistance and Support level:In the process of price movement, if it contains peaks and troughs are higher than the previous one corresponding peaks and troughs, so called upward tr

49、end; In contrary, if it contains peaks and troughs are lower than the previous peaks and troughs, then known as the downward trend; if the latters peaks and troughs are basically unchanged from the previous peaks and troughs, then become oscillatory trend, or sideways trend or no trend. Now, we just

50、 introduced two trends: upward trend(chart1) and downward trend(chart2) .The two trends are also contains Support level and Resistance level.A support level is the lower limit to price fluctuations in the intermediate trend;Resistance level is the higher limit to price fluctuations in the intermedia

51、te trend;A “breakout ”occurs when a stock (or the market) passes through either a support or a resistance level.Macroeconomic Analysis The global economic The international economy might affect a firms export prospects,the price competition it faces from competitors,or the profits it makes on invest

52、ments abroad. As the global economy develops faster and faster, the financial crisis is spreading all over the world at any time.Therefore,the foreign trades of Yili Group are also influenced in a way.The Domestic Macro economy The national economic environment can be a crucial determinant of indust

53、ry performance.The macro economy is the environment where all firms operate as well.The first step in forecasting the performance of the broad market is to assess the status of the economy as a whole. Some of the key economic statistics used to describe the state of the macro economy are followed:GD

54、P/Gross Domestic ProductGDP（Unit：billion）20102011201220132014（the front three seasons）From the datas and the graph ,we can draw a conclusion that the GDP in our country is growing rapidly ,indicating an expanding economy with ample opportunity for Yili Group to increase its sales.（2）Employment失业率（%）

55、20102011201220134Macroeconomic AnalysisFrom the datas and the graph ,we can easily know that the unemployment rate is declining steadily ,which means more workers are hired in Yili Group so that theyll contribute to the output.（3）SentimentConsumers and producersoptimism or pessimism concerning the e

56、conomy is an important determinant of economic performance.In 2008,Sanlu infant formula milk powder produced by Yili Group containing the melanmine which does harm to us especially to the little babies were not allowed to be sold in the market.Thus beliefs influence how much consumption will be purs

57、ued and affect the aggregatedemands for goods and services.Government Policy（1）Fiscal PolicyIt refers to the governments spending and tax actions and is part of “demand-side management”.It is also probably the most direct way either to stimulate or to slow the economy.Now,our country is taking a pos

58、itive fiscal policy which is beneficial for Yili Group.In other words,positive fiscal policy is another way to expand domestic demands,and people are encouraged to buy more products in their daily life.Yili Group can take it into consideration that healthier and higher-quality products can be sold t

59、o more consumers in order to make more profits.（2）Monetary PolicyIt refers to the manipulation of the money supply to affet the macroeconomy and is the other main leg of demand-side policy.It works largely through its impact on interest rates.Sound monetary policy plays a significant role in the dev

60、elopment of Yili Group.For instance,our country takes several actions on increasing the supply of currency including cancelling the control of commercial banks credit ceilings ,reducing the legal reserve requirement ratio and reduction of interest Macroeconomic Analysiscontinuously etc.Lowering rese