东南大学 项目管理教材

1、Project ManagementPMInstitute of Systems and EngineeringSoutheast University1课程形式课程形式主课，习题课，专题课，作业考试形式笔试学习要求按时上课，认真听讲阅读参考书认真记笔记，整理笔记思考，讨论，提问成绩评定作业，平时成绩，期末考试比例：作业 10%，平时成绩20%，期末考试70%2课程内容项目生命周期人员: 项目成功的关键项目计划与控制项目生命周期PM主要内容第一章 项目管理概念第二章 识别需求第三章 提出解决方案第四章 执行和结束项目控制能力技能知识信息经验实践&反馈应用学习&培训怎样才能成功？控制计划文化人方

2、法价值、信念、态度、行为、传统项目管理体系信息组织授权、责任CAD、建模进度计划激励、领导、谈判、团队建设、沟通、决策定义项目、指定战略、制定进度计划历史、现状（成本、进度、质量和需求）对照计划检查进展、采取改正措施、审计绩效基准计划项目管理成熟度组建团队建立项目构筑成功范围管理质量管理时间管理成本管理人力资源管理合同与采购管理沟通管理综合管理风险管理I See The Cat Quickly HideChicken,Rice, Potatoes Scope范围管理Quality质量管理Time时间管理Cost成本管理Human resource人力资源管理Procurement合同与采购管理

3、Communication沟通管理Integration综合管理Risk风险管理 管理产生项目干系人所期望的关键结果为成功而管理成功 领导确定方向与项目成员密切合作沟通前景激励与鼓励成员应用实践与改进管理和领导如果你未能达到凭空虚构的目标，是否意味着失败？成功Schultz,Sleven,Pinto(1987)观点解决问题时常犯的四种错误当应该采取某种行动时，却没有采取行动。Fortune和Peters从失败中学习：系统解决观点当不该采取某种行动时，却采取了行动。采取错误的行动（去解决）错误的问题。提出了正确的问题，但未采用正确的解决方法。未达到目标。出现不希望得到的负面效果。设计失败。目标不

4、合适。在项目开始前，便制定各方都同意的成功标准，这一点非常重要！制约项目成功的因素工作范围成本进度计划客户满意度两个因素对项目的成功至关重要：1、高层管理人员的支持；2、项目团队成员中所存在的问题导向（不是专业导向）。资源绩效成本时间良好的客户关系范围蔓延项目管理成功的因素根据Standish Group每年对信息系统项目进行的调查：只有17%的项目达到了预定目标；有50%的项目更改了目标；33%的项目被撤消。美国每年花在这上面的费用大约为800亿美元。项目失败的高昂代价1、问题未能清晰定义2、计划基于不充分的数据（软件开发中经常遇到）3、单纯由计划人员编制计划（原则：实际工作人员必须共同参与

5、计划）4、无人负责5、项目计划理想化6、资源计划不充分（低劣的资源计划可能是导致项目失败的最常见原因）7、不认同自己为团队中的一员8、项目中的成员流动性大，且未考虑对项目的影响（组织所给予的奖赏必须与它所期望的目标保持一致）9、项目计划缺乏细节和深度（原则：项目计划的细节和深度，不应超出有效管理所能达到的层面）10、项目未按计划进行（计划不明确；不按计划执行）11、忘记了原始目标12、高层管理者拒绝接受现实（依据片面的历史经验进行估算；强行规定质量、成本、时间和工作范围等目标，违背了四要素的规律）13、粗略的估算变成了正式的目标（必须记录和存档所有的推测）导致项目失败的原因时间成本 努力技术诀

6、窍工具质量粗略估算有时会变成“正式目标”制定使命/远景说明质量管理检查改进结果确定关键成功因素识别商业过程将关键成功因素与商业过程联系起来 进行差距分析选择商业过程识别改进机会分析改进机会定义项目范围计划项目活动安排项目工作监控项目进展反馈循环ABCD持续质量管理模型管理风险项目风险数据集成时间不确定性技术不确定性过程不确定性市场 战略计划商业价值 企业文化产品观念组织风险产品风险墨非定理：凡是要出问题的都会出问题！风险：在一个项目中可能发生的影响项目目标的任何事情。原则：我们都倾向于过高估计自己的能力，而过低估计困难，“即使墨非也是一位乐观者！”例子：一位工程师技术人员正全神贯注地设计一项他

7、们无法完成的工作，根本就没有考虑失败的可能性！正因为如此，他们“将所有的鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里”，很可能不得不从头开始。项目风险在项目中，可能出差错的事情常常比可能意想不到地正常运行的事情多，这是现实生活中一个令人遗憾的事实。-约翰.R.斯凯勒避免风险的原则：通过好的计划来规避风险，而不是靠损失一个好的机会来避免风险。预防总是比失败划算：对于一个非常重要的项目，企业决策者宁愿避免使用一个缺乏经验的项目经理，也不愿跟在一个没经验的项目经理后面尽力去管理风险。项目风险避免危险总是比管理危险好，这似乎很有道理。-Harvey Levine(1995)风险概率数（RPN）=概率度（P） 严重程度（S）检

8、测能力指标（D） ，这个数值越大，风险就越严重。例如：对一个项目的风险分析项目风险在某些高风险项目中，当不能进行可行性研究时，公司将采取并行开发的路线，能够工作的第一种技术应该是公司继续采用的技术。显然这种方法需要花费很多成本，并且仅在时间比金钱更重要时才采用。已识别的风险坏天气P S D RPN关键团队成员损失技术不适用 3 2 4 24 2 8 8 128 6 10 8 480管理风险的三种方式：1、风险避免；2、风险减轻（降低，如安全气囊）；3、风险转移（如通过保险预防损失）。投资结合的风险 增加安全系数 与合作伙伴共担风险 开发和测试事故应对程序 随时间分散风险 操作风险 参加多种风险

9、投资 与承包商签订总承包合同 投资组合中的群体互补风险 制定风险共担合同条款 寻求低风险投资 使用安全系数；精心地设计 集中于单个的、熟悉的领域 拥有备用设备 增加公司的资本 增加培训商品价格 可选操作选项 在未来市场中，保护或稳定价格 进行测试、试验和试用 使用长期或短期销售（价格或数量）合同 风险分析（减少评审的错误） 通过制定相应合同条款共享风险 使用较好的技术（例如决策分析）利率和汇率 寻求补充信息 使用互惠信贷、最低价格、最高价格、中 监控关键和指示性的偏差间价格和其他限制手段 验证样品 调整资产负债表 进行项目评估和后评估 以某种货币进行一定的外汇交易 利用替代方法和人员，开发备用

10、模型环境危害 包括多专业及专业之间的沟通 购买保险 提供较好的培训和工具风险减轻或避免的斯凯勒方法（1995）技术1技术2成本进度整体内容涉及初步要求的技术成功的主观评估指标与其他项目对比的技术成功的主观评估指标预算成本超支和盈余的主观评估指标进度计划超前和滞后的主观评估指标整体项目成功的主观评估指标评估指标项目成功的评估指标：资料来源：Couillard(1995)管理过的项目数目责任指标项目管理工具和技术了解项目的各个目标项目经理授权和责任级别项目主管授权和责任级别组织机构高层管理的介入沟通形式问题的处理项目团队的支持项目经理的经验项目管理要素：资料来源：Couillard(1995)C/

11、SCSC：成本/进度控制系统标准（按逻辑分成5组；包括35项目标准）项目管理方法WBS的应用PERT/CPM的应用C/SCSC的应用各类定期技术报告各类定期成本报告各类定期进度报告项目监测的频率1995年，Standish Group针对项目失败的原因调查了1,000多位IT经理。调查显示的10条最主要的原因是：1、需求不完整；2、缺少用户参与；3、缺少资源；4、期望不现实；5、缺少执行支持；6、要求和规范不断变化；7、缺少计划；8、对项目的需求不复存在；9、缺少IT管理；10、技术缺乏。增加项目失败风险的原因：如果在技术、成本和进度方面面临风险，遵循以下指南：1、强调团队支持2、给予项目经理

12、相应的权力3、改进问题处理和沟通的方式4、避免使用纯项目型组织结构5、提高项目监测的频率6、使用WBS、PERT/CPM和C/SCSC方法7、为项目团队建立清晰的项目目标8、选择有经验的项目经理项目风险管理建议：基本概念PMP（Project Management Professional）项目管理专业人员资格。项目：为创造独特的产品、服务或结果而进行的一次性努力。项目管理：将知识、技能、工具和技术应用于项目的各项活动之中，以实现或超过项目干系人对项目的要求和期望。第一章 项目管理概念本章内容项目的涵义和特征在项目管理中的关键约束条件一个项目是怎样诞生的项目生命周期项目管理过程所涉及的步骤项目

13、管理的益处第一章 项目管理概念项目就是以一套独特的、相互联系的任务为前提，有效地利用资源，为实现一个特定的目标所做的努力。项目是多任务的！一个项目就是一个计划要解决的问题。-J. M. Juran(1989)1.1 项目的概念A project is a unique endeavour to produce a set of deliverables within clearly specified time, cost and quality constraintsBuilding a new houseDeveloping a new software applicationPerfor

14、ming an assessment of current manufacturing processesCreating a new radio commercialThe operational work is the ongoing, repetitive set of activities that sustain the organization.Processing customer ordersPerforming accounts receivable and accounts payable activitiesExecuting the daily manufacturin

15、g orders1.1 项目的概念Projects are different from standard business operational activitiesAre unique in natureHave a defined timescaleHave an approved budgetHave limited resourcesInvolve an element of riskAchieve beneficial change1.1 项目的概念Comparing Projects and OperationsFeatureProjectsOperationsKey Simi

16、laritiesPlanned, executed, and controlled Performed by peopleResource constrainedPlanned, executed, and controlled Performed by peopleResource constrainedPurposeAttain objectives and terminateSustain the organizationTimeTemporaryDefinite beginning and end pointsOngoingOutcomeUnique product, service,

17、 or resultNon-unique product, service, or resultPeopleDynamic, temporary teams formed to meet project needs Generally not aligned with organizational structureFunctional teams generally aligned with organizational structureAuthority of ManagerVaries by organizational structure Generally minimal, if

18、any, direct line authorityGenerally formal, direct line authority1.2 项目管理的概念Project Management is the skills, tools and management processes required to undertake a project successfully1.2 项目管理的概念SkillsSpecialist knowledge, skills and experienceToolsDocument templates, registers, planning software,

19、modeling software, audit checklists and review formsProcessesVarious processes and techniques are required to monitor and control time, cost, quality and scope on projectsTime management, cost management, quality management, change management, risk management and issue management1.2 项目管理的概念The Proje

20、ct Management Institute (PMI) defines project management as a set of five process groups and nine knowledge areas 美国项目管理协会（Project Management Institute）,简称PMI，成立于1969年。它是一个有着10万多名会员的国际性项目管理专业协会，是项目管理专业领域中由研究人员、学者、顾问和经理组成的全球性的最大专业组织机构PMI早在七十年代末就率先提出了项目管理的知识体系（Project Management Body of Knowledge, 简称为

21、PMBOK）PMBOK 把项目管理划分为9个知识领域，即：范围管理，时间管理，成本管理，质量管理，人力资源管理，沟通管理，采购管理，风险管理和集成管理。国际标准化组织以该文件为框架，制订了ISO10006关于项目管理的标准1.2 项目管理的概念Description of Project Management Process Groups#Process GroupDescription per PMBOK 2000 EditionCommon Terms1InitiatingAuthorizing the project or phasepreliminary planning“kickin

22、g off”2PlanningDefining and refining objectives of the project and selecting the best course of action to attain those objectivesdefiningdeveloping the plan“setting the stage”3ExecutingCoordinating the people and resources to implement the planmaking it happengetting it done“coordinating”4Controllin

23、gEnsuring project objectives are met by monitoring and measuring progress regularly to identify variances from the plan so that corrective actions can be takentracking progress“keeping on course”5ClosingFormalizing acceptance of project or phase and bringing to an orderly endclient acceptancetransit

24、ion“closeout”1.2 项目管理的概念Description of PMBOK Knowledge Areas#Knowledge AreaDescription per PMBOK 2000 EditionCommon Deliverables1Project Integration ManagementProcesses required to ensure the elements of the project are properly coordinatedProject CharterProject PlanChange RequestsWork Results2Proje

25、ct Scope ManagementProcesses required to ensure that project includes all the work that is required and only the work that is required to complete the project successfullyScope StatementWork Breakdown StructureFormal Acceptance3Project Time ManagementProcesses required to ensure timely completion of

26、 the projectNetwork DiagramTask EstimatesProject Schedule4Project Cost ManagementProcesses required to ensure the project is completed within the approved budgetResource RequirementsCost EstimatesProject Budget1.2 项目管理的概念Description of PMBOK Knowledge Areas#Knowledge AreaDescription per PMBOK 2000 E

27、ditionCommon Deliverables5Project Quality ManagementProcesses required to ensure the project will satisfy the needs for which it was undertakenQuality Management PlanChecklistsQuality Reviews6Project Human Resources ManagementProcesses required to make the most effective use of the people involved w

28、ith the project Role and ResponsibilityMatrixOrganization ChartPerformance Evaluations7Project Communications ManagementProcesses required to ensure the timely and appropriate generation, collection, dissemination, storage, and ultimate disposition of project informationCommunication PlanStatus Repo

29、rtsPresentationsLessons Learned8Project Risk ManagementProcesses concerned with identifying, analyzing, and responding to project risk.Risk Management PlanRisk Response PlanRisk Log9Project Procurement ManagementProcesses required to acquire goods and services outside the performing organizationProc

30、urement PlanStatement of WorkProposalsContracts1.2 项目管理的概念Relationships among the project management process groups, which is based on PMBOK 2004 EditionMonitoring and Controlling ProcessesPlanning ProcessesExecuting ProcessesInitiating ProcessesClosing Processes1.3 项目管理的分类A类项目出问题的可能性类别持续时间复杂性B类项目C类

31、项目D类项目风险技术18个月9-18个月3-9个月3个月高中低很低突破性技术现行技术熟练技术实践确定可能一些无高中低很低1.4 项目管理的特征项目的特征1、存在唯一性2、时空限定性3、资源有限性4、过程完整性5、目标多样性1.4 项目管理的特征面向成果：关注项目的完成，通常运用目标式管理基于团队：注重协作与沟通借助外部资源：高效率，低成本具有柔性：面对变化，适应变化具有探索性：面对挑战，存在复杂性、不确定性和风险性等问题注重知识与经验的积累：知识挖掘与整合，注重创新文化培育以人为本：共同远景、共同参与、共同发展、共同价值项目管理的刘易斯方法2、制定问题说明、前景和使用说明3、生成项目备选战略4

32、、对每个备选战略1）满足所有的P、C、T、S吗？2）SWOT和风险可接受吗？3）结果可接受吗？4）力场分析可行吗？6、制定实施计划5、每个因素都可行吗？否是1、概念7、每个干系人都认为可行吗？8、签署项目计划并建立项目日记9、执行计划10、进展可行接受吗？14、所有工作都完成了吗？15、进行最终项目评估16、结束项目否否否否7a、战略可以吗？是是是13、计划可行吗？12、战略可行吗？11、定义可行吗？否否是否定义编制战略计划实施计划执行和控制学习战略计划中包含的活动主要外部利益相关者： 当地社团 社会 客户 供应商 干系人 债权人主要内部利益相关者： 高级经理 中层经理 临时工 项目团队成员

33、员工数据库： 历史绩效 目前的状况 预测评估： 组织的 优势 弱势 环境的 机遇 威胁使命目标目的战略计划实施计划1.5 项目生命周期Project Life Cycle执行项目结束项目识别需求Resource提出解决方案Time1.5 项目生命周期1. Project initiationA business problem or opportunity is identified and a business case providing various solution options is definedA feasibility study is conducted to inves

34、tigate whether each option addresses the business problem and a final recommended solution is then put forwardOnce the recommended solution is approved, a project is initiated to deliver the approved solutionTerms of reference are completed outlining the objectives, scope and structure of the new pr

35、oject, and a project manager is appointedThe project manager begins recruiting a project team and establishes a project office environmentApproval is then sought to move into the detailed planning phase1. Project initiationProject initiation activitiesDevelop a business caseUndertake a feasibility s

36、tudyEstablish theterms ofreferenceAppoint theprojectteamSet up aprojectofficePerformphasereview1. Project initiationThe business case includesA detailed description of the problem or opportunityA list of the alternative solutions availableAn analysis of the business benefits, costs, risks and issues

37、A description of the preferred solutionA summarized plan for implementationThe business case is then approved by an identified project sponsor, and the required funding is allocated to proceed with a feasibility study1. Project initiationSet up a project officeEquipment, such as office furniture, co

38、mputer equipment, stationery and materials;Communications infrastructure, such as telephones, computer network, e-mail, Internet access, , database storage and backup facilitiesDocumentation, such as a project methodology, standards, processes, forms and registersTools, such as accounting, project p

39、lanning and risk modeling software1. Project initiationPerform a phase reviewAt the end of the initiation phase, a phase review is performedThis is basically a checkpoint to ensure that the project has achieved its objectives as planned2. Project planningProject plan outlining the activities, tasks,

40、 dependencies and timeframesResource plan listing the labor, equipment and materials requiredFinancial plan identifying the labor, equipment and materials costsQuality plan providing quality targets, assurance and control measuresRisk plan highlighting potential risks and actions to be taken to miti

41、gate those risksAcceptance plan listing the criteria to be met to gain customer acceptanceCommunications plan describing the information needed to inform stakeholdersProcurement plan identifying products to be sourced from external suppliers2. Project planningProject planning activitiesCreate aproje

42、ct planCreate aresource planCreate afinancial planCreate aquality planCreate arisk planCreate anacceptanceplanCreate acommun. planCreate aprocurementplanContract thesuppliersPerformphase review2. Project planningCreate a project planThe first step in the project planning phase is to document the pro

43、ject planA work breakdown structure (WBS) is identified which includes a hierarchical set of phases, activities and tasks to be undertaken to complete the projectAn assessment of the level of effort required to undertake each activity and task is madeThe activities and tasks are then sequenced, reso

44、urces are allocated and a detailed project schedule is formedProject plan is the key tool used by the PM to assess the progress of the project throughout PLC2. Project planningCreate a resource plan Type of resource required, such as labour, equipment and materialsQuantity of each type of resource r

45、equiredRoles, responsibilities and skill-sets of all human resource requiredSpecifications of all equipment resource requiredItems and quantities of material resource requiredA schedule is assembled for each type of resource so that the project manager can review the resource allocation at each stag

46、e in the project2. Project planningCreate a financial plan A financial plan is created to identify the total quantity of money required to undertake each phase in the project (in other words, the budget) Detailed financial planning is an extremely important activity within the project, as the custom

47、er will expect the final solution to have been delivered within the allocated budget2. Project planningCreate a quality planDefines the term quality for the projectLists clear and unambiguous quality targets for each deliverable. Each quality target provides a set of criteria and standards to be ach

48、ieved to meet the expectations of the customerProvides a plan of activities to assure the customer that the quality targets will be met (in other words, a quality assurance plan)Identifies the techniques used to control the actual quality level of each deliverable as it is built (in other words, a q

49、uality control plan)2. Project planningCreate a risk planDocument all foreseeable project risksIdentifies the actions required to prevent each risk from occurring, as well as reduce the impact of the risk should it eventuateDeveloping a clear risk plan is an important activity within the planning ph

50、ase, as it is necessary to mitigate all critical project risks prior to entering the execution phase of the project2. Project planningCreate an acceptance planAn acceptance plan is created by clarifying the completion criteria for each deliverable and providing a schedule of acceptance reviewsThese

51、reviews provide the customer with the opportunity to assess each deliverable and provide formal acceptance that it meets the requirements as originally stated2. Project planningCreate a communications planThe types of information to be distributed to stakeholdersThe methods of distributing the infor

52、mationThe frequency of distributionResponsibilities of each person in the project team for distributing the information2. Project planningCreate a procurement planThe detailed description of the products (that is, goods and services) to be acquired from suppliersThe justification for acquiring each

53、product externally as opposed to from within the business, and the schedule for product deliveryDescribes the process for the selection of a preferred supplier, and the ordering and delivery of the products (the procurement process)2. Project planningContract the suppliersIdentify a short-list of ca

54、pable suppliersSelect a preferred supplierA contract is agreed between the project team and the supplier for the delivery of the requisite productsPerform a phase reviewThis is a checkpoint to ensure that the project has achieved its objectives as planned3. Project executionThis phase involves imple

55、menting the plans created during the project planning phaseMonitor and control the deliverables: identifying change, risks and issues, reviewing deliverable quality and measuring each deliverable produced against the acceptance criteriaOnce all of the deliverables have been produced and the customer

56、 has accepted the final solution, the project is ready for closure3. Project executionProject execution activities4. Project closureProject closure involves releasing the final deliverables to the customer, handing over project documentation to the business, terminating supplier contracts, releasing

57、 project resources and communicating the closure of the project to all stakeholdersThe last remaining step is to undertake a post-implementation review to quantify the level of project success and identify any lessons learnt for future projectsPerformprojectclosureReviewprojectcompletion4. Project c

58、losurePerform project closureDetermining whether all of the project completion criteria have been metIdentifying any outstanding project activities, risks or issuesHanding over all project deliverables and documentation to the customerCancelling supplier contracts and releasing project resources to

59、the businessCommunicating the closure of the project to all stakeholders and interested parties4. Project closureReview project completionDid it result in the benefits defined in the business case?Did it achieve the objectives outlined in the terms of reference?Did it operate within the scope of the

60、 terms of reference?Did the deliverables meet the criteria defined in the quality plan?Was it delivered within the schedule outlined in the project plan?Was it delivered within the budget outlined in the financial plan?项目管理生命周期定义：定义项目范围陈述问题/机遇建立项目目标识别成功标准列出假设、风险和障碍组织：启动项目招募、组织项目团队确定团队运作规则平衡项目资源制定工作包