世界需求和竞争力对出口和经济增长的影响

1、本科毕业论文外文翻译原文外文题目：Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic Growth 出 处：Growth and Change (Vol.25,Winter 1994,pp.3-24) 作 者： JESSIE POON 原 文：Effects of World Demand and Competitiveness on Exports and Economic GrowthIntroductionThe role of exports in economic growth has been mu

2、ch debated since the 1950s. Two viewpoints characterize the development literature on the relationship between exports and economic growth. The first considers that economic growth is a consequence of favorable internal and supply-related factors. Exports promote growth because they stimulate the ef

3、ficient use of these factors for economic production and enable a country or region to remain competitme (Bhagwati 1988; Kravis 1973; Riedel 1987). In the second viewpoint, the success of export-led growth is said to rest on a favorable trade environment which depends on the economic prosperity of c

4、ore regions. This demand-oriented viewpoint suggests that exports are not expected to expand faster than the demand for them by core regions (e.g. Lewis 1980; Nurkse 1961; Prebisch 1962). The difference between the two viewpoints lies in the weight given to the mechanisms determining the link export

5、s and economic growth. One outcome of the polarization of the literature is that regions trying to develop are confronted with development models which often assume dualistic forms. For example "inward" versus "outward" trade orientation, or, "export" versus "impor

6、t" substitution strategies.' Broadly, these dualisms are circum- scribed in what has come to be known as the "export optimism-export pessi- mism" debate(Bhagwati 1988). The need to collapse the export optimism-export pessimism dualism for a more integrative perspective has been ra

7、ised by Streeten (1982). Increasingly too, the literature suggests that a mix of both perspectives merits a closer look (e.g. Gereffi 1989). This paper examines the relationship between export growth and economic growth within an integrative framework. It argues that developing countries (abbreviate

8、d to LDCs) are rather differentiated in their economic structures so that the relationship between exports and economic growth is likely to vary. Thus, it is unlikely that the above relationship may be fully explained by one viewpoint. Two variables, world demand and competitiveness, capturing deman

9、d-oriented as well supply-oriented explanations of the mechanisms linking export growth to income growth are first established. The two variables are then incorporated into an exports-growth model, and, their effects on the aforemen- tinned relationship investigated. The primary units of analysis ar

10、e developing countries, although the study is also relevant to regional development. Particularly when developing countries may be conceived as regional units, except that many of the decisions governing economic growth in the former are made at the national level. The paper is organized as follows:

11、 the next section documents the theoritical and empirical underpinnings of export optimism as well as export pessimism , and their resulting polarized positions . The model for investigating integration is introduced next, followed by a discussion of the data and results. The paper ends with a summa

12、ry of the findings and their implications. The Exports-growth DebateThe question as to whether economic growth may be rapidly promoted through exports is characterized by two schools of thought: Export optimism. Export optimists consider trade to be an engine of growth and place much confidence in t

13、he role of prices to allocate resources efficiently. Countries or regions that are able to compete in their exports enhance their economic growth because this increases productivity and specialization, and improves efficiency through better resource allocation. Drawing on the principles of classical

14、 comparative advantage as well as vent-for-surplus and staple theories (see for example Myint 1958; North 1955; 1961), export optimists point to the potential gams that arise as a result of trade. Export optimists explain the link between exports and economic growth in terms of supply factors such a

15、s natural resources, entrepreneurship, skilled labor, and institutions. Trade results m economic growth by expanding the supply of labor and capital, while technological advances raise the productivity of the factors of production(Riedel 1987). Outward-looking trade strategies such as export promoti

16、on have been popularized on the premise that exports lead to rapid economic growth and development. Exports help to overcome a country or region's limited market and provide an outlet for the surplus products that are not consumed domestically. Idle or surplus resources are absorbed into exporta

17、bles which have the effect of stimulating economic growth (Myint 1958). Engaging in export producUOn therefore ensures greater capacity utilization through economies of scale Balassa 1985). It has also been maintained that economies that are oriented towards exports produce a higher level of industr

18、ialization (Joint ECLA/UNIDO Industrial Development Division 1986) and generate higher quality products because of the exposure to international consumption patterns. Other compelling arguments include the need by developing countries to earn foreign exchange in order to finance imports for mdustria

19、hzation(Esfahani 1991), as well as the deployment of abundant labor so that it leads to the growth of employment and wages (Krueger 1988). Export optimists support their position by drawing extensively from econometric studies relating economic growth to some indices of export performance under impl

20、icit assumptions of favorable supply conditions. Several of these studies concluded that economic performance is highly correlated to export growth (Balassa 1978; 1985; Dodaro 1993; Emery 1967; Feder 1982; Fosu 1990; Kavoussi 1984; Maizels 1968; Michalopoulos and Jay 1973; Rana 1988; Syron and Walsh

21、 1968; Tyler 1981). The meteoric rise of the Asian newly-industrializing countries (1VICs) has also been linked to their "superex- porting" development strategy (Balassa 1988; Hughes 1989; Krueger 1985; Riedel 1988). All these motivated the World Bank (1987; 1993) to endorse export promoti

22、on as the dominant development strategy for developing countries. Export pessimism. Export pessimists put less faith in the market, arguing that the ability of developing countries to export is constrained by the external market. They maintain that the hnk between exports and growth (abbreviated to

23、exports-growth) weakened considerably during the oil crisis years of the 1970s due to a contraction in demand especially for LDC exports. Thus, trade enhances growth only when the external demand is favorable. Export pessimists advocate more inward-oriented strategies, namely import substitution, as

24、 the major development model. Import substitution was thought to be beneficial because it reduces a country's vulnerability to international economic crises (Prebisch 1968). One of the earliest researchers to highlight the influence of the external environment on trade performance was Nurkse (19

25、61). Contrasting trade patterns between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, he argued that economic growth in the industrialized core had not resulted in a proportionate increase in demand for LDC exports. Echoing the same sentiments two decades later, Lewis (1980) points out that since most of

26、the exports of developing countries are destined for markets in developed countries, they have been adversely affected by the economic slowdown in industrialized countries since the mid-1970s. The export performance of countries is therefore said to be tied to the economic conditions of the industri

27、alized core region. The above is characteristic of dependency writings such as those of Cardoso and Faletto (1979). In this case, structural differences between a developed and developing region are seen to determine their asymmetrical trading relationship. Some empirical support for the position of

28、 the export pessimists is provided by studies on the role of external demand on the export performances of developing countries (e.g. Kavoussi 1985; Singer and Gray 1988). These reports indicate that export earnings decline substantially when the level of external demand is depressed. The role of th

29、e external demand assumes even greater significance when the rise of global protectionism is considered. The continued absorptive capacity of the international market for the exports of developing countries in the face of global reswcturing is questioned by Cline (1982) for example. Cline concluded

30、that if several developing countries were to follow in the footsteps of the exportoriented Asian NICs, it would provoke a widespread protectionist response from the developed countries. This further limits the ability of developing countries to grow through trade. An integrative perspective. The deb

31、ate between export optimists and pessimists have adopted rather polarized views so that policy recommendations have also been conflicting. The dualistic framework of the export promolion/outward-orientation versus import substitution/inward orientation models reflects this. The empincal literature h

32、as also not provided a clear resolution of the debate. For instance in investigating the exports-growth relationship, Balassa (1985) reports a higher parametric value for exports in the post-oil crisis period following 1973. Rana's (1988) study contradicts Balassa's conclusions in that expor

33、ts were found to have a less positive effect on growth after the oil crisis. An important source of the conflict between the export optimists and the export pessimists is the degree of openness which is deemed to be desirable during the process of economic development. Import substitution regimes te

34、nd to be characterized by high levels of protection for its producers (e.g. quantitafive restrictions or tariffs on imports) in order to avoid the vagaries of external demand. Export optimists support a higher degree of openness because it enables a country or region to find its comparative advantag

35、e, thus avoiding high-cost, inefficient activities and becoming more competitive. However, Streeten (1982) argues that the process of national production is often a mix of the two strategies. Bruton (1989) has pointed out that mdustrialization through import substitution is credited with building up

36、 the capital goods sector as well as technological maturity. Import substitution is thought to pave the way for successful export performance because a body of knowledge is acquired over time by targeting production towards the domestic market before exposing the products to an international cliente

37、le. This is also consistent with the Infant Industry theory in the economics literature where an industry is protected by first turning inward to the domestic economy until it is sufficiently mature to be exposed to external demand and competition. Frank, Kim, and Westphal's (1975) study of the

38、highly export-oriented South Korea estimated that import substitution and export expansion both contributed positively to the growth of manufactured output between the 1950s and 1960s. The creation of comparative advantage in the petrochemical industry by the Korean government is a good example of t

39、he import substitution of intermediate products. This provided the basis for newer phases of Korean industrial growth and exports in the late 1970s. Gwyne (1990) observed that industrial growth in Korea has been evenly distributed between domestic demand and export markets. Similar observations were

40、 made for Taiwan as well (Joint ECLA/UNIDO Industrial Development Division 1986). The integration of import substitution and export promotion in regional or national production appears therefore to be crucial in the development process. Balassa's (1981) theory of the stages-of-development is esp

41、ecially relevant here as economic progress is conceived in several stages: an "easy" stage of import substitution engaging in the replacement of the imports of nondurable consumer goods. During this period, external economies are generated in the form of labor training and entrepreneurship

42、. Export promotion becomes the next logical step as producers search for ways to overcome the limited size of their domestic markets. As the industrial process deepens, the replacement of more capital- intensive intermediate goods is pursued followed by another phase of export promotion. Thus, expor

43、t promotion is often preceded by a phase of import substitution. Integrating import substitution and induced growth is influenced by both country's competitiveness. Ho's (1984) export promotion implies that trade-induced growth is influenced by both the the levels of external demand and a st

44、udy of LDCs' exports for instance showed that the gains from trade for the NICs is associated with their abilities to maintain their export competitiveness globally. Where external demand has been poor, the more successful performers have been able to keep or even increase their market shares by

45、 dmersifying their exports or "getting around" protectionist measures (Baldwin 1985). Svedberg's (1991) analysis of the export performance of Sub-Saharan Africa similarly suggests that poor performance in exports lies as much in decreased competitiveness and market penetration as in un

46、favorable external demand. This paper therefore argues for a convergence of the perspectives underlying the export optimism-export pessimism schism. From the paper's viewpoint, the contribution of exports to economic growth is affected by both external demand as well as a country or region's

47、 competitiveness. 译 文：世界需求和竞争力对出口和经济增长的影响导言出口对经济增长的作用在20世纪50年代以来一直被争论。出口与经济增长之间的关系的发展文献有两个代表性观点。第一种观点认为，经济增长是内部和供应相关的有利因素的结果。出口促进增长，因为它们刺激经济生产因素的有效使用，使一个国家或地区保持竞争力（巴格瓦蒂1988年；卡拉维斯1973年；里德尔1987年）。在第二观点里，出口带动经济增长的成功是说基于一个经济繁荣的核心区域的有利贸易环境。这种需求为导向的观点表明，预计核心地域的 出口比需求不会扩大地太快（例如刘易斯1980年；纳科斯1961年；普里比1962年）。两

48、者观点的不同点在于出口和经济增长之间关系的确定和联系机制给出的权重。文献两极分化的一个结果是，地区试图发展往往采用二元形式发展模型。例如“走进来”与“走出去”贸易方向，或“出口”与“进口”替代战略。从广义上讲，这些二元论被已经称为“出口乐观与出口悲观”的争论限制（巴格瓦蒂1988年）。因为综合观点瓦解“出口乐观与出口悲观”二元论的需要已经被斯特（1982年）提高。越来越多的文献也表明，两个观点综合的优点值得仔细看看（如Gereffi,1989）。本文在一个综合框架内探讨出口增长与经济增长之间的关系。它认为，发展中国家（简称LDCs）在经济结构方面有相当区别的，因此出口增长和经济增长之间的关系可

49、能会有所不同。因此，不太可能由一个观点完整地解释上述关系。两个变量，世界需求和竞争力，锁定需求为导向以及供给为导向的解释的出口增长与收入增长的关系的机制首先建立。这两个变量纳入了出口增长模式还有前述研究关系的影响。分析的主要单位是发展中国家，虽然这项研究也关系到区域发展。特别是发展中国家可能被设想为区域单位，除了许多在前面控制经济增长的国家级做的决定。本文结构如下：下一部分是出口悲观以及出口乐观的理论和实证基础，和它们所带来的两级分化的立场。该模型一体化的综合是，通过对数据和结果的讨论介绍下面部分。本文最后以调查和他们的意义总结结尾。出口增长争论经济增长是否会通过出口快速增长这个问题被两所学校

50、的想法所描述：（一）、出口乐观乐观主义者认为出口贸易成为经济增长的发动机，价格的作用很大，国家或地区有能力在出口竞争，提高他们的经济发展，因为这可以增加生产力和促进专业化，并通过有效地分配资源更好地提高资源配置的效率。古典的绘图以比较优势的原则，及通风的过剩和主食的理论（例如见敏1958年，北美1955年，1961年），出口乐观者指出潜在收益的出现是由于贸易的结果。出口乐观解释出口和经济增长与供给方面各因素之间的联系如自然资源、企业家素质和熟练地劳动力。贸易对经济增长的作用在于扩大劳动力和资金供给，而技术进步提高生产率（里德尔，1987年）。在促进出口等已普及的前提下，实施外向型贸易战略，使经

51、济快速增长和发展。出口有助于克服一个国家或地区的有限市场，并提供一个剩余未供国内产品出口。闲置或多余的资源吸收到出口商品有刺激经济增长（敏，1958年）的影响。从事出口生产，因此确保通过规模经济（巴拉萨，1985年）更大的产能利用率。也有人认为，经济体对出口产生的工业水平（联合拉美经委会、工发组织工业发展导向部门，1986年）生成更高，因为国际消费模式曝光优质的产品。其他令人信服的理由，包括由发展中国家需要赚取外汇，以资助工业化的进口，以及丰富的劳动力的部署，以便它使就业和工资增长（克鲁格曼，1988年）。在出口乐观者的支持下，借鉴与提供的有利条件，出口业绩指标计量隐含的体现了经济增长是经济学

52、研究的一些广泛的立场。这些研究的结论是，经济增长表现与出口增长密切相关的（巴拉萨，1985年等）。在迅速崛起的亚洲新兴工业化国家也已经与他们的“大量出口”发展战略（巴拉萨，1988年；休斯，1989年；克鲁格曼，1985年；里德尔，1988年）。所有这些计划，经过世界银行（1987年，1993年）批准，作为发展中国家的主要发展战略来促进出口。（二）、出口悲观出口悲观主义者对投放市场信心不足，认为发展中国家的出口能力受到外部市场的制约。他们认为，出口和经济增长之间的联系（简称出口增长），在最不发达市场，尤其是出口需求萎缩的石油危机相当严重，在20世纪70年代削弱了。因而，加强贸易增长只有当外部需求大时是有利的。出口悲观主义者主张更多内向性的战略，即进口替代作为主要的发展模式。进口替代被认为是有利的，因为它减少了一个国家的脆弱性及国际（普雷维什，1968年）经济危机。最早研究者之一（纳