Understanding Key Economic Indicators

1、Understanding Key Economic Indicators     Understanding Key Economic Indicators,关键词是Un,nd,de,er,rs,st,ta,an,nd,di,in,ng,gK,Ke,ey,yE,Ec,co,on,no,om,mi,ic,cI,In,nd,di,ic,ca,at,to,or,rs,s,             林兆权 By Desmond Lum

2、0;   In these times when market forces appear increasingly    complicated and more volatile, it is all the more important    to understand the professional jargon and terminology in the    market place in order to be able to

3、better make our investment    and business decisions. Understanding key-economic indicators    will assist in the decision making process, providing a snapshot    of the current situation and an insight into the future.   

4、60;Each economic indicator tells us something about the    economy or inflation. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is probably    the most important report as it is the whole framework where    other economic indicators fall under. Using the tex

5、tbook formula    where Gross National Product = Consumption + Investment +    Government Spending + Exports - Imports, some of the indicators    will fall into the above-mentioned category e.g. retail sales    figures wi

6、ll fall under Consumption, construction spending under    investment, to name a few.    There are also indicators that are broader that tell us    about the economy itself rather than the component, e.g.    employment fi

7、gures, leading indicators, money supply figures    (M3). Inflation figures, Produce Price Index (PPI) and the    Consumer Price Index (CPI) will, in short , inform us of    the changes in wholesale prices , cost of consumer (retail) &#

8、160;  goods and services respectively.    An indicator that is useful must be accurate, timely and    reliable. It depends entirely on the integrity of the national    statistical system responsible. It is vital to know the accura

9、te    components of an indicator. We have to be mindful of the    limitation of these statistical figures too.    Some indicators can be historic or extremely volatile, and    therefore their value are reduced. It is bet

10、ter to compare the    most recent data with earlier months, or take a moving average    for the past 3,6 or 12 months to smooth the data. It will tell    us if there has been a significant change in trend and whether    

11、a new direction is under way.    Timeliness of an indicator is also significant. Although    the reported figures are important, it is crucial to recognise    that markets react to the variance to the consensus forecast   

12、60;than to the absolute change in the indicator. Markets do not    like surprises and can be frustrated with volatility upon    subsequent revisions to the numbers published, even though    significance of the absolute number diminishes wit

13、h each    passing month.    In the US, together with the monthly employment report    released on the first Friday of the month, an important    survey by US National Association of Purchasing Management   

14、; (NAPM) is released within the first three business day of    the month, which tracks the economic movements fairly well.    These two reports are considered by many as valuable adjunct    to the Commerce Departments index of leading

15、indicators.    The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) in the US    acts as an early warning system, telling us when the economy    is about to change direction. This composite index of 11    leading indicators ha

16、s a good record of providing accurate    forecasts. The total index performs better as a prediction    tool than any of its parts. This monthly figure is available    on the last business day of the month and has low    

17、volatility.    As a general rule, turning points in the economy are    signalled by three consecutive months of LEI changes in the    same direction. This leading indicator is like a lighthouse,    giving the rest of the

18、 world economies a glimpse of the    direction of the worlds largest economy.    Singapore is highly dependent on trade, about four times    our GDP in 1997 at US $217.7 billion. The US is the most    important destinati

19、on for our electronics exports, followed    by Malaysia. Electronic goods make up about 70% of non-oil    domestic exports and about 45% of manufacturing sector. It    is therefore imperative to note the demand of electronic  

20、0; goods from the US. As Singapore imports much of the raw    materials needed for its value-added processes in the    manufacturing concerns, the retained import figures become a    good gauge of future activities.   &#

21、160;Retain Import, a leading indicator (usually about three    months) for the manufacturing sector, is still down. It fell    15.6% for 1998. This spells weak manufacturing and    electronics figures in the following two quarters. Julys

22、60;   total trade figures fell 9.1%, Singapore-made exports (also    known as non-oil domestic exports) fell 2.3% worse than    expected, led by the 5% decline in exports of electronic    goods. Although the accuracy of the p

23、redicting quality is    debatable, the retained import figure does give a relatively    good indication of the direction of the manufacturing and    electronic activities and as such the Singapore economy.    The indicat

24、or that reflects the domestic demand is the    non-oil imports. It fell 19.3% in July, the fifth month in a    row. On a three-month trend basis, the decline is    accelerating, reflecting extreme weakness in domestic    

25、;consumption.    (The writer is fund manager of Jardine Fleming Investment    Management Singapore.This column has the support of the    Investment Management Association of Singapore and the Stock    Exchange of Singapo

26、re.)    了解主要经济指标的意义    在目前这种时期，市场越来越变幻莫测、波动也越来越大，明白    市场的专业术语和名词因此变得更重要。主要经济指标传达的信息包    括当前的经济状况以及未来可能出现的情况，能协助制定投资和商业    决策。    每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信息，   

27、0;其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经济指标。经济    课本把国内生产总值的方程式列为：    消费投资政府开支出口进口 从以上的方程式可看出它    包含了许多经济数据，如零售销售数字包括在消费、建筑开支属投资    部分等。    除此之外，就业数字、领先指标和货币供应也是很有用的数字。    通胀方面，生产物价指数和消费物价指数分别让我

28、们知道物品和服务    的批发和消费价格的变动。    经济指标必须准确、及时和可靠才算有用。这完全依赖有关统计    系统是否完善。知道有关指标是由哪些成分组成也非常重要。另外，    我们也应知道这些统计数字的局限性。    有些指标可能过时或是波动剧烈，减低了它们的有效性。因此，    比较妥当的做法是把最新数字与之前几个月份的比较，或是利用过去

29、60;   3个月、6个月或是12个月的平均移动数。我们将能因此知道是否出现    显著的趋势改变或者在朝新发展方向。    指标的及时性也不容忽略。不过有一点应该注意的是，市场通常    不是对实际数字做出反应，而是它与市场的平均预测相差有多远。市    场不喜欢“惊喜”，也不喜欢波动或之后做出调整。    在美国，除商业部公布的领先指标指数外，每月初公布的就业报    告和采购经理指数也是两份重要的报告。后者能相当准确地反映制造    业的活动。    领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济是否    正要转向。它包括11个指数，整体指数比任何