政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响

1、June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumRegulatory Issues andChinas Auto Market政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.DChina Business UpdateChina Automotive Review中国汽车要闻 邢文军1June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents F

2、orumThe Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场中国的汽车市场Future Trend & Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素未来市场的走向和影响因素Recent Policies & Regulations近期的相关政策和法规近期的相关政策和法规2June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumThe Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场中国的汽车市场3June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing a

3、nd the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumThe Rise of Per-Capita GDP人均人均GDP198519901995199820012002200320042005GDP (tril. yuan)0.91.865.757.79.6 10.24 11.6713.6518.23Population (bil.)1.061.141.211.251.2761.281.291.31.3Per-capita yuan8531,6344,8546,2777,517 8,187 9,014 10,50113,950Per-capita $10319757

4、4746909990 1,0901,2701,703Large Metropolis and Coastal Areas$3,000-$4,000 直辖市及沿海地区直辖市及沿海地区4June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAutomobile Output Automobile Output 汽车产量汽车产量 1992-2005 1992-200501,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000

5、19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCar*BusTruck*Total5June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumGrowth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005汽车及轿车产量增幅汽车及轿车产量增幅(in million units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

6、 2002 2003 2004 2005Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73% change 22.1 4.3 7.3 1.38 7.37 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3Cars* 0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93% change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8

7、24.2* Includes sub-category cars and MPVs6June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAdding One Million Units A Year年增百万辆年增百万辆First Million: 1953-1992 - 40 yearSecond Million: 1993-2000 - 8 yearsThird Million: 2001-2002- 2 yearsFourth Million: 2003 - 1 yearFifth

8、 Million: 2004 1 yearsSixth Million: 2005 over 1 yearSeventh Million: 2006 1 year7June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumGDP and Output Growth Rates GDP和汽车产量增幅和汽车产量增幅-30-20-10010203040506019781980189219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004GDPOutput8June

9、 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumChinas auto market: myth and reality 中国的汽车市场的真实性中国的汽车市场的真实性9June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFarm Truck Output 1992-2005 农用车农用车0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,00

10、0,0003,500,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnits3 wheeler4 wheelerTotal10June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotorcycle Output 1992-2005 摩托车产量摩托车产量05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,0001992199319941995199619971998199920002

11、0012002200320042005YearUnitsUnits11June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotor Vehicle Output 机动车产量机动车产量 (含农用车含农用车)(including farm trucks)02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCarBusT

12、ruckTotal12June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumIntensifying Competition 竞争激烈竞争激烈633?13June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDF-Yueda-KiaFAW CarFAW-VWSGMSVWHainan-MazdaGEELYTianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin- FAW- ToyotaCha

13、ngan-SuzukiDongfeng-Peugeot-CitronCheryGuangzhou-HondaD-NissanBrilliance-JinbeiBJ-HyundaiChangan-FordNJ-FiatChanghe-SuzukiHafei AutoGuizhou-SkylarkSoutheastS-GM-WulingSichuan-Toyota3+? Guangzhou-ToyotaChangan-FordD-NissanGuangzhou-HyundaiGreat WallJianghuai6+314June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing

14、 and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum63 Multinationals are all in 跨国公司全部进入跨国公司全部进入Volkswagen: 大众大众 SAIC and FAW GM: 通用通用 SAIC-GM, Wuling, Dongyue, Jinbei Ford: 福特福特 Changan, Nanjing, JianglingDaimlerChrysler: 戴克戴克 BAIC, Southeast Toyota: 丰田丰田 FAW, GAICHonda: 本田本田 GAIC, Dongfeng Renault/Nissan:

15、 雷诺雷诺-日产日产 Dongfeng BMW: 宝马宝马 Brilliance JinbeiPSA: 标致雪铁龙标致雪铁龙 Dongfeng ; Fiat: 菲亚特菲亚特 NanjingHyundai-Kia: 现代现代-起亚起亚 BAIC, Dongfeng, GAIC Suzuki: 铃木铃木 Changan, Changhe; Mitsubishi: 三菱三菱 Southeast Isuzu: 五十铃五十铃 Qingling; 15June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Fo

16、rum3？: FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC “三大？三大？”BAIC: 北汽北汽 DaimlerChrysler, Hyundai, MitsubishiGAIC: 广汽广汽 Honda, Toyota, Dongfeng-Nissan PassengerChangan Group: 长安长安 Ford, SuzukiHafei/Changhe: 哈飞哈飞/昌河昌河 Aviation Industry GroupJianghuai Auto Group 江淮江淮Nanjing: 南汽南汽 Fiat, MG RoverSoutheast (Fujian)：东南东南 Mitsubishi

17、, China MotorsBrilliance: 华晨华晨 BMW Qingling Motor Group：庆铃庆铃 Isuzu16June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum3？Domestic Investment 国内投资国内投资Chery: 奇瑞奇瑞 R&D Center, Engine Plant, Export/JV Geely: 吉利吉利 R&D Center, Engine plant, Export/JV BYD (Qinchuan): 比

18、亚迪比亚迪 HK$254 million/74% shares Great Wall: 长城 100,000 units car assembly plant Jianghuai: 江淮 light commercial, MPV, car Lifan: 力帆 1.6L car Zhongxing: 中兴 SUVs and pickups Gonow Auto: 吉奥 SUVs and pickups Loncin: 隆鑫 300 million, bus/suv17June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006

19、 Presidents ForumReality and Definition 如何定义如何定义Sedan 轿车轿车Automobile 汽车汽车Motor vehicle 机动车机动车Consumers 消费者消费者Family car 家庭轿车家庭轿车Price: 价格价格 100,000, 80,000, 40,000, 30,000Sedan vs hatchback 三箱三箱, 两箱两箱 (Citron ZX, Xiali) 18June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Fo

20、rumSummary 结论结论: Eexisting and potential large market 现实和潜在大市场现实和潜在大市场 Institutional and commercial 公、商务车市场公、商务车市场 Consumer market: 消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车 Motorcycles, farm vehicles, mini-vehicles (not 100%) Sedans 轿车轿车 Transition from a centralized to a market system计划经济向市场经济过渡计划经济向市场经济过渡

21、 19June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFuture Trend and Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素未来市场的走向和影响因素20June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumInteraction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈三股力量的博弈Government, World Market, Domestic Market 政

22、府、国际和国内市场政府、国际和国内市场 Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精简政府机构精简政府机构 Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制公有制和私有制 WTO Impact 世贸组织世贸组织 The Rise of a Consumer Market 消费者市场的兴起消费者市场的兴起 21June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDeclining Administrative Control行政

23、干预逐渐弱化行政干预逐渐弱化 Ministry of Machinery Industry 机械部机械部 State Administration of Machinery Industry 机械局机械局 China National Automotive Industry Corp. 中汽总中汽总 State Economic and Trade Commission 经贸委经贸委Federation of Machinery Industry 机械工业联合会机械工业联合会CAAM/SAE 中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会中国汽车工程学会22June 26, 2006Glo

24、bal Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumEmphasis on the Rule of Law 法制增强法制增强Type/Product Approval 认证认证Safety: compulsory tests, frontal collision 安全碰撞法规安全碰撞法规Emission Control: Euro III & II 排放排放Consumption Tax 消费税消费税Consumer Protection: Recall 消费者保护消费者保护Fuel consumption

25、level:然油消耗限制然油消耗限制23June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAdministrative Control 行政干预依然存在行政干预依然存在Auto Industry Development Policy 产业政策产业政策（2004） Market entry 市场准入市场准入 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 股比限制股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制项目限制24Ju

26、ne 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDifferent departmental priorities (部门交叉管理）部门交叉管理） SDRC:发改委发改委 Circular (investment threshold) State Assets Commission 国资委国资委 Large State-owned companies MOFCOM:商务部商务部 Investment, Sales, Export Quality Inspection，Supervisi

27、on & Quarantine: 质监局质监局 Administration of Taxation: 税务局税务局 Taxation Industry and Commerce: 工商局工商局 Business License Public Security: 公安局公安局 Vehicle License & Registration Communications: 交通部交通部 Maintenance & Repair Ministry of Science &Technology: 科技部科技部25June 26, 2006Global Auto Manu

28、facturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMarket vs. Central Planning 市场和计划经济市场和计划经济State Council DRC 国务院发展研究中心国务院发展研究中心 Government Should Not Interfere 政府不宜干预政府不宜干预 Equal Access and Fair Competition 公平竞争公平竞争 26June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents For

29、umDriven by Market Forces 市场的作用越来越大市场的作用越来越大Automobile: means of production vs consumer good汽车：生产资料还是消费品汽车：生产资料还是消费品Public/Institutional to Private Ownership公有到私有公有到私有Economic Growth & Rising Living Standards经济发展和生活水平经济发展和生活水平27June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Pre

30、sidents Forum Overall Economic Growth 经济持续增长经济持续增长 Average GDP growth 7-8% GDP增幅增幅 Active fiscal policy 积极的财政积极的财政 Average annual growth in output 10-15% 汽车年产量均增汽车年产量均增 15 左右左右28June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum International Players 跨国公司跨国公司Multinatio

31、nal Presence 跨国主机厂和供应商跨国主机厂和供应商Government Relations and Lobbying 政府公关政府公关Vehicles for Government Consumption 政府采购政府采购Emissions, Safety, Technology 安全、排放、技术安全、排放、技术29June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumWTO Accession 世贸组织世贸组织 Tariff down to 25%/10% in 2006

32、关税减削减关税减削减 Quota eliminated 配额许可证取消配额许可证取消 Localization requirement 取消国产化率取消国产化率 Global sourcing 全球采购全球采购 Equity investment limit 放宽投资额度限制放宽投资额度限制 Consumer expectations: Price reduction 降价降价 30June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDomestic Market Forces 国内市

33、场变化国内市场变化Local Investment 地方政府投资地方政府投资Private Investment 民营投资民营投资 Chery, Geely, Brilliance, BYD, Lifan, GWMarket Entry Open, with restrictions 准入并未封闭准入并未封闭Merger & Acquisitions 兼并重组，借壳生产兼并重组，借壳生产Buying into the Big Three? 民营参股三大民营参股三大? 31June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of Chi

34、na2006 Presidents ForumCorporate Decision Making 企业面临新决策企业面临新决策Protective vs. Competitive Advantage 保护还是竞争优势保护还是竞争优势Advanced Management vs. Efficiency 先进管理和效率先进管理和效率 State-ownership & Labor Cost Advantage 国有和劳动力成本国有和劳动力成本Low-Cost Management 低成本管理低成本管理Product Development: Institutional/Consumer新产

35、品开发对象新产品开发对象 32June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMarket Share of Carmakers, 2004-2006 (%) 市场份额市场份额Make/Model 2001 20042005Jan-Mar. 06Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.910.4 9.3FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0Chery Aut

36、omobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9 Geely 2.9 4.5 5.2 6.1Tianjin-FAW-Toyota N/A 3.4 4.7 6.0 Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.033June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum The Road of E

37、lectronic Appliances and Motorcycles 家电和摩托车家电和摩托车Motorcycle Market shares:19972005 摩托车市场份额摩托车市场份额 SOEs + JVs （国有和合资企业）（国有和合资企业）: 90% 40% 34June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumRecent Policies & Regulations 近期的相关政策和法规近期的相关政策和法规35June 26, 2006Global Auto

38、 Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAuto Industry Development Policy（2004）产业政策产业政策 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 整车股比限制整车股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制项目限制 JV initiated M&As 合资企业兼并重组国企合资企业兼并重组国企 Separation of production & Sales: Mazda 3生产和销售分离生产和销售分离 En

39、trance barrier 准入准入 Support of “large auto groups” 支持支持“大集团大集团”36June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumImport Tariff 进口关税进口关税Quota and license eliminated 许可和配额取消许可和配额取消Whole vehicles: 25% July 1, 2006 整车整车25Parts & components: 10% July 1, 2006 零部件零部件10I

40、mpact: high-end, luxury cars as imports 豪华车豪华车Targeting the newly rich 新富新富 Local production unlikely 不会地产不会地产37June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumCBU Characteristics 整车特征整车特征 (April 1, 2005) Import Administration of Automotive Parts and Components Havin

41、g Characteristics of CBUs 60% or higher in value: 25 tariff, July 1, 2006超过整车价值超过整车价值60，按整车征税，按整车征税 EU, US, Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico: “Violation of WTO rules on localization” 违背违背WTO地产规则地产规则 China：”Counter import tariff evasion” “打击逃避关税打击逃避关税” Likely solution 解决办法解决办法38June 26, 2006Global Au

42、to Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumExterior ID Marks 汽车外部标识汽车外部标识Administrative Methods on Exterior ID Marks of Automobile Products, February 2006 今年二月实施今年二月实施Government: Made in China 政府规范市场政府规范市场Corporate: Sales 企业销售企业销售Consumer: Foreign vs. local brands 消费者心理消费者心理39June 26

43、, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumConsumption Tax, April 1, 2006 消费税消费税 (%)Sedan/MPV SUVEngine NewOldChange EngineNewOld Change1.0L 3 3 01.0L-=1.5L 3 5-21.0L-=1.5L 3 3 01.5L-=2.0L 5 5 01.5L-=2.0L 5 3 22.0L-=2.2L 9 5 42.0L-=2.2L 9 3 62.2L-=2.5L 9 8 12.2L-=2.5L

44、9 3 62.5L-=3.0L 12 8 42.5L-=3.0L12 5 73.0L-=4.0L 15 8 73.0L-=4.0L15 5104.0L 20 8124.0L20 515Impact: 影响影响40June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFarm vehicles part of automobiles 农用车变为汽车的一部分农用车变为汽车的一部分The Notice on Standardizing the Administration of Three-W

45、heel Automobiles and Low-Speed Trucks, June 1, 2006 三轮汽车、低速卡车三轮汽车、低速卡车VIN：January 1, 2007 汽车识别代号汽车识别代号WMI: 世界制造识别世界制造识别a) minimum output 3,000/500 最低年产量最低年产量b) certification 生产许可生产许可Application deadline: December 31, 2006 申请截至申请截至41June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotor Vehicle Output 机动车产量机动车产量 (含农用车含农用车)(including farm trucks)02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCarBusTruckTotal42June 26, 20