Deloitte2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案(1)

1、U.S. Energy & The Role ofRocky Mountain Natural Gas:Clean Domestic Energy For a Growing America(2005) There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energyBasic Energy Facts There is no economy, be it new, old or even futurist

2、ic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energyBasic Energy Facts Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17% There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessibl

3、e and affordable energyBasic Energy Facts We import 14% of the gas and 53% of the oil we use Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%Polls demonstrate that the American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1.

4、 Takes energy for grantedPolls demonstrate that the American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1. Takes energy for granted 2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nationsPolls demonstrate that the

5、 American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1. Takes energy for granted 2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations3. Seems to believe the mistaken notion that energy production necessarily en

6、tails unacceptable environmental impactIn Colorado about 2,000 drilling permits are issued annually compared to about 50,000 housing permitsSource: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy FactsOILTotal U.S. Energy Consumption byPrimary Energy Source 2001Source: EIAPetroleum39.4%Natural Gas22.8%Coal23

7、.1%Other - 3.9%Hydro - 2.5%Nuclear - 8.4%World Petroleum Demand25.9%76.0 MMbodSource: EIA In the last 5 years the world consumed 27 billion barrels/year, but the industry discovered only 3 billion barrels/year Therefore: used 135 billion barrels of oil while discovering 15 billion barrels of oilSour

8、ce: USGSBasic Energy FactsWorld Top Oil Producing Countries in 2001 1.U.S.9.0 MMbo/d2.Russia8.8 MMbo/d3.Saudi Arabia8.0 MMbo/d4.North Sea (UK, Norway, Denmark)6.3 MMbo/d5.Iran3.7 MMbo/d6.Mexico3.6 MMbo/d7.China3.3 MMbo/d8.Venezuela2.9 MMbo/d9.Canada2.8 MMbo/d10. Iraq2.4 MMbo/dSource: EIAU.S. Petrole

9、um Products Production vs. U.S. Petroleum Demand051015202519852001MMbodProduction -25%Demand +24%Source: EIAU.S. Crude Oil Production& Crude Oil ImportsSource: EIA051015202519731976197919821985198819911994199720002001Quadrillion BtuOil ProductionOil ImportsTop Suppliers of Crude Oil to U.S. in 2

10、001 1.Saudi Arabia1,611 Mbo/d2.Mexico1,394 Mbo/d3.Canada1,356 Mbo/d4.Venezuela1,291 Mbo/d5.Nigeria842 Mbo/d6.Iraq795 Mbo/dSource: EIANATURAL GASTotal U.S. Energy Consumption byPrimary Energy Source 2001Source: EIAPetroleum39.4%NaturalGas22.8%Coal23.1%Other - 3.9%Hydro - 2.5%Nuclear - 8.4%U.S. Natura

11、l Gas Consumption in 200122.0 TcfSource: Groppe, Long & LittellResidential22%Commercial15%Industrial26%Electric Utilities26%Chemicals and Materials3%Other 9%U.S. Natural Gas Consumption vs. Dry ProductionSource: EIA01020304050607019731977198119851989199319972001BcfdConsumptionProductionU.S. Shor

12、tfall in Production vs. ConsumptionSource: EIA01234567891019731977198119851989199319972001BcfdIn 2001 U.S. consumption was6 Bcfd greater than U.S. production! Projected Natural Gas DemandSource: EIATcf per year U.S. manufacturing is based on affordable and reliable supplies of natural gas. At these

13、prices, it is unlikely the U.S. will attract new manufacturing capital. Todays gas prices are forcing manufacturers to consider production overseas.Source: Industrial Energy Consumers of AmericaELECTRICITY U.S. highway fuel market totals 11-12 MMbopd making it the single largest petroleum market in

14、the world However the energy content creating Kilowatts in the U.S. is almost twice as large as the highway fuel market!Electricity Basic Energy FactsBasic Energy FactsIn 2001 nearly 42% of the energy consumed in the U.S. was used to generate electricity.Source: Groppe, Long & LittellU.S. Electr

15、icity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro - 5.8%Nuclear20.3% From end of WWII to start of 2000 residential and commercial electrical use increased 51 out of 53 years Yet no significant new power

16、plants were built between 1990 and 2000Basic Energy FactsIn 2000, PCs and electronics consumed 13% of our nations energy supply. By 2020, these uses are expected to consume 25% of the nations energy supply. 40% of the countrys electricity is used to power air conditioners.U.S. Electricity Net Genera

17、tionSource: Groppe, Long & Littell012341975198019851990199520002001Billion Kilowatt Hours1.6% CAGRU.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro 5.8%U.S. Hydroelectric Power

18、 ProductionSource: EIA 05101520251973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion Btu2001Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%Basic Energy FactsBasic Energy FactsOil, gas and hydro production are flat to down so what has incr

19、eased energy supply?Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro -

20、 5.8%U.S. Nuclear Electric Power Production25051015201973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion BtuThree MileIsland2001Source: EIA U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3

21、.4% Hydro - 5.8%U.S. Electric Power Production from CoalSource: EIACoal05101520251973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion Btu2001 Cant store electricity like you can oil and gas so excess capacity is essential! The nation is now adding gas fired power plants at an unprecedented rateElectr

22、icity Basic Energy FactsEasier to permitMore cost efficientTake years less to constructDistributed locationClean (50% of coal and oil power plant emissions)Why Gas Fired Power Plants?Source: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)10083433002505007501,000 xPounds of EmissionsPer

23、 Billion BtuNatural GasCoalFuel OilSource: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Sulpher Dioxide (SOx)11,7001,00005001,0001,5002,000 xPounds of EmissionsPer Billion BtuNatural GasCoalFuel OilSource: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Particulate Matter5833,10005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50

24、0 xPounds of EmissionsPer Billion BtuNatural GasCoalFuel OilSource: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2)115165210050100150200250 xPounds of EmissionsPer Billion BtuNatural GasCoalFuel OilRockies represent the single largest untappedonshore natural gas basin in the U.S.Source:

25、 National Petroleum CouncilRockies41%Gulf Coast23%Mid-Continent36%Estimated Proven and Potential Gas Reserves in the U.S. (1,135 Tcf)Why the Rockies?Source: AAPG Memoir 67, p. 286.Basin Center Gas (BCG)Rocky Mountain BCG Huge and largely untapped “unconventional” natural gas resource Abnormally pres

26、sured gas accumulations below normally pressured water system Compartmentalized non-continuous gas columns Usually low perm reservoirs but high perm areas do exist (sweetspots) Complex poorly understood system which represents tremendous opportunityRocky Mountain BCG These accumulations have defied

27、exploitation by conventional techniques A deep basin high potential “frontier” exists in mature provinceRocky Mountain BCGUnconventional resource1.4 TCFG produced annually 7% of U.S. gas productionOver 90% of CBM production came from Rockies in 2000Coal Bed MethaneCoal Bed Methane39.7 TCFG most like

28、ly recoverable from Rocky Mountain regionCBM potential of entire Rockies being reevaluated after success in Powder River, Uinta, Raton & Piceance BasinsThree of the four largest (?) U.S. onshore gas discoveries in last 25 years are in the RockiesProducingSan Juan Basin CBM (1986)2,000 MMcfdPowde

29、r River Basin CBM (1991)930 MMcfdBarnett Shale (1981)700 MMcfdJonah BCG (1995)650 MMcfd U.S. Daily Gas Production 1972 - 1999Source: 2000 Potential Gas Committee Report-24%-36%518%010203040Gulf CoastMid-ContinentRockiesPacificN. CentralBcfd-24%-36%518%-21%700%19721999U.S. Gas Supply: Why the Rockies

30、?Discount to NYMEXF=03 (Actual Jan-Feb, Futures Mar-Dec), 04 & 05 Futures 2-7-03$ / MMbtuCIG Basis1.150.600.310.250.520.781.251.771.080.84 Volatile prices Excessive regulations Inefficient permitting procedures Lack of land and lease accessibilityWhat is holding us back from growing our gas prod

31、uction?Barriers to Meeting the Nations Demand for Natural Gas21Tcf137Tcf31Tcf24TcfSource: National Petroleum CouncilU.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Reserves Subject to Access RestrictionsLack of infrastructureLack of impactful new technology (“silver bullets”)Lack of prospects?What is holding us back from

32、growing our gas production? Most of our gas supply and drilling activity in last 10 years has come from extremely successful exploitation efforts The problem is that this is a finite game05,00010,00015,00020,0001972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 # of Wells Com

33、pletedOilGasDry19727,551198117,50019867,15620002,076Source: APIHistory of U.S. Exploration Activity Price uncertainty “Tired” mature basins Lack of creative new ideas where have all the prospectors gone?Why are exploration efforts so anemic? Quarterly financial “street” expectations Perception that

34、domestic projects cant compete with global opportunitiesWhy are exploration efforts so anemic? Lack of consistent corporate commitment or fortitudeWhy are exploration efforts so anemic?We must explorefor the good of our countryand the survival of our industryWANTED:A New Supply of“Silver Bullets”IP / EUR Logs! Pipe set “dry holes” are tremendous waste of capitalCost Effective (Cheap) Onshore 3D Seismic Acquisition! Need “offshore-like” coverage