利乐乳业指数July

1、 tetra pak dairy indexa biannual news and informationsource about the dairy industryissue 3 july 2010changingglobal demographicsinsideletter from the ceochanging global demographics:living longer, healthierand differentlystate of the industrymarket spotlight:pakistanletter fromthe ceodear readers,im

2、 pleased to present the third issue of the tetra pakdairy index, which focuses on changing populationsaround the world and how these changes areinfluencing our industry and will continue to do so.this dairy index highlights three worldwide demographicdrivers bringing about changes in lifestyle and c

3、onsumptionin developed and developing countries: an ageingpopulation, urbanisation and a growing global middle class.living longer, healthier and differentlyalthough the impact of these drivers differs fromcountry to country, they present new and interestingopportunities for dairy producers everywhe

4、re to targetthe increasingly diversified needs of consumers asthey live longer, healthier and more varied lives.for example, dairy producers in many countries arebeginning to offer products that target people who areinterested in taking preventative health measures as they age.meanwhile, as the numb

5、er of city dwellers continuesto swell, dairy producers are benefiting from changinglifestyles which drive demand for more convenientproducts to suit increasingly busy, more mobile ways ofworking and living. at the same time, they are copingwith the logistical challenges of producing liquid dairyprod

6、ucts (ldp) in rural areas and distributing them incities, sometimes located hundreds of kilometres away.and finally, dairy producers in many developing countrieshave an eye on the global middle class, which is projected togrow from 430 million people in 2000 to 1.15 billion by 2030.during the next 1

7、0 to 15 years, developing countries suchas india, china and brazil expect a significant percentage oftheir populations to become part of this group earningincomes which will enable them more easily to afford value-added products such as flavoured and fortified milk.these trends are currently shaping

8、 the dairy industryin pakistan, the worlds fourth largest consumer ofldp and the subject of our market spotlight.about the tetra pak dairy indexthe tetra pak dairy index is a biannual report,which is designed to help dairy producers identify newopportunities for growth while offering all industrywat

9、chers information on the latest facts, figuresand trends related to the global dairy industry.the data contained in this report are collectedfrom a variety of tetra pak and external sources andanalysed by tetra paks dairy market experts. thetetra pak dairy index also includes tetra paks analysisof t

10、he industry based on its day-to-day work withdairy customers, governments, non-governmentalorganisations and local communities around the world,supporting every aspect of the dairy value chain.changing, but still growing steadilyeven during the worldwide financial crisis, globalconsumption of milk a

11、nd other ldp continued to grow,increasing 1.8% from 2008 to 2009. steady growth inldp consumption is expected to continue worldwide rising by an estimated 2.4% compound annual growthrate (cagr) from 2009 to 2012. this is up 0.2% on ourdecember 2009 forecast made during the economic crisis.although d

12、emographic drivers may change the wayconsumers enjoy their ldp, one thing is certain: milk isan affordable, nutritious food staple, which continuesto play a central role in diets all around the world.we hope you find this report useful and welcome yourcomments at . you can also findthe tetra pak dai

13、ry index at jnssonpresident and ceo tetra pak group23032302426272314the 60+ population offers significant potentialfor dairy producers who can meet their specificneeds and aspirations.importance of vitamin and mineral supplements grows with age% of consumers who say activity is important vs. % who o

14、ften do it2020161715-1920-2930-39important40-49do often50-5960+source: gfk roper reports worldwide, 2009, based on a survey of 30,000 consumers age 15 and older in 25 countries.aging population uses more vitaminand mineral supplementsafter 40-years-old, around 30% of consumers considervitamins and m

15、inerals very important compared tothose age 15 to 39, according to gfk roper reportsworldwide. usage also increases with age. in fact, in japan,supplements for everything from anti-ageing to helpingwith weak joints have been popular for years amongthe 60+ population, according to tetra pak japan.som

16、ething nice to eat or drink” ranks as the second mostpopular indulgence among people 60+ and the thirdmost popular among the general population, accordingto data from gfk roper reports worldwide. in addition,59% of the global 60+ population is concerned about foodsafety compared with 53% of the gene

17、ral population.“the 60+ population offers significant potential fordairy producers who can meet their specific needs andaspirations,” said zacka. “this includes both products that4when it comes to food and drinks, consumers 60+ arealso more likely to view food as a special treat and tobe concerned a

18、bout food safety. for example, “havingcater to healthy lifestyles, such as fortified milk productswith added calcium, vitamins and minerals and productsthat can be positioned as occasional indulgences.”population(millions)6000.05000.04000.03000.02000.01000.0health benefits and lifestyles outweigh la

19、belsrecent research from tetra pak germany demonstratesthat people 50+ do not want to be seen as ageing,seniors or elderly. for example, in japan, where 22% ofpeople are 65+, dairy producers focus not on age but onthe health benefits of products, such as those helpingto reduce cholesterol or decreas

20、e blood pressure.“the 60+ population in many countries will have more time,more money and more education than ever before. theyllalso be fitter, more active and more vibrant,” said tetra pakglobal marketing director chris kenneally. “marketerswho will do well will be those who can talk to this growi

21、ngpopulation group about lifestyles not ailments.”2. urbanisation:today, 3.25 billion people around the world live in urbanareas; by 2050 this number is expected to increase to 6billion, according to the united nations. countries likeargentina, brazil and south korea are already highlyurbanised, wit

22、h more than 80% of the population living incities. urban populations in asia and africa are expecteddairy producers find new ways tomeet needs of lactose intolerantfrom australia to europe to latin america,the number of people perceived to be lactoseintolerant or unable to metabolise the sugarfound

23、in milk products is on the rise. dairycompanies globally are developing alternative“lactose-free” products targeted at this segment.some are even developing products for people whothink they are lactose intolerant, but are not. theyjust have trouble digesting one of the proteinsfound in milk.thats t

24、he case in australia, where a2 dairy productsdeveloped the a2 milk product, made with theoriginal milk protein or a2 beta casein protein.“its the fastest growing milk in the white milkcategory with a 400% increase in sales over thelast three years,” said peter nathan, executivegeneral manager of the

25、 company.to double in less than a generation, says the un.cities drive economic growth and so city dwellers in mostcountries have greater brand awareness and higher disposableincomes than their rural counterparts. this means they bothwant and can afford packed milk as well as value-addedldp, such as

26、 milk fortified with vitamins and minerals, flavouredmilk and drinking yoghurt.the lactose-free segment is growing quickly. forexample in finland, lactose-free and lactose-reduced milks make up 11.2% of total whitemilk share purchased by customers, (based onnielsen household panel, 2009). valio evol

27、us2, alactose-free drinking yoghurt shot produced byvalio in finland, grew by 31% from 2008 to 2009.the world is becoming more urbanby 2050, the population of cities is expected to reach more than 6 billion people, while the rural populationis forecast to decline to fewer than 3 billion.7000.00.0195

28、019601970198019902000201020202030204020506source: united nations world urbanization prospects: the 2009 revisionurban populationrural population3. an emerging middle class:all around the world, the percentage of peoplewho fall into the global middle class is increasing.the definition of middle class

29、 differs from countryto country although it is always based on socio-economic data such as income, material wealthand educational achievement. but everywhere thissegment is enjoying increased purchasing power.developing regions lead growthmost of the growth is coming from developing regions,such as

30、india, china and brazil. for example, by 2025indias middle class is expected to number 583 millionpeople more than 10 times todays figure, accordingto gfk roper consulting. the average disposable incomeof indian households (income after taxes, adjusted forinflation) is projected to grow by 5.3% each

31、 year.there will still be consumer preferences based on wherepeople live, their food preferences, climate and otherfactors. affordability will remain the common levellingfactor, and dairy producers will need to choose the rightprice point to reach the middle class successfully.”premium products more

32、 affordablein developing countries in particular, dairy producersare beginning to look for growth in the rapidlyexpanding middle class. premium ldp products, suchas drinking yoghurt, fortified milk and flavoured milk,are now more accessible than ever to the middle class opening up new opportunities

33、for dairy producers.between 2006 and 2009, the middle class effect contributedto strong growth in flavoured milk sales in china (up4.7%), indonesia (up 6.8%) and brazil (up 11.1%).in china, the premium white milk and value-added8during the same period, chinas middle class is expected toincrease from

34、 43% of the total population to 76%. incomeshave risen sharply in the past few years; by 2025 china isexpected to be the third-largest consumer market basedon purchasing power, says the mckinsey global institute.“the consumer base for liquid dairy products is growingand in many countries, consumers

35、now have more moneyin their pockets,” said michael zacka. “however, you cantjust market across the board to the emerging middle-class.white milk categories, which exclusively target themiddle class, grew aggressively between 2007 and2009 as consumer purchasing power rose. in 2009,premium white milk

36、products accounted for almost 20%of total value share, according to tetra pak china.for instance, milk deluxe from mengniu, a long-life packaged milk, is the flagship product in chinaspremium segment. it is positioned as containinghigh-quality raw milk and is sold in small packagesglobal ldp consump

37、tion expectedto increase by 2.4% cagr from 2009to 2012ready to drink (rtd), long-life products to drive growth with asia, africa and latin america leading the wayworldwide consumption of milk and other liquid dairyproducts (ldp) is expected to grow at a compound annualfrom 2009 to 2012, worldwide co

38、nsumption of whitemilk, which represents 76.1% of total ldp consumption, isexpected to continue growing, reaching a cagr of 1.5%.this is up 0.2% from tetra paks december 2009 forecast.growth rate (cagr) of 2.4% from 2009 to 2012 reaching 283.2 billion litres by 2012, according tobut some value-added

39、 products were affectedtetra pak forecasts. this is up 0.2% compared with thecompanys december 2009 forecast, which was loweredamidst the uncertainty of the global financial crisis.global consumption of rtd long-life packaged productsas expected, consumption of many higher-priced, value-added ldp sl

40、owed during the crisis. for example, from2008 to 2009, flavoured milk typically one of the fastest-growing ldp categories grew by just 0.8% worldwide.is expected to drive much of this growth acceleratingfrom a 5% cagr from 2006 to 2009 to 5.4% cagr from2009 to 2012. the strongest growth in the ambie

41、nt rtdldp category is expected to come in asia (8.7% cagr),within the flavoured milk segment, long-life varieties grewby 2.7% globally from 2008 to 2009, while chilled productsdeclined by 2.7%. overall consumption of flavouredmilk is expected to rebound post-crisis, particularly inafrica (6.9% cagr)

42、 and latin america (7.1% cagr).tetra pak president and ceo dennis jnsson,commented, “milk is an affordable and nutritious foodmarkets with fast-growing younger populations, with aprojected worldwide cagr of 3.3% from 2009 to 2012.products such as drinking yoghurt and soy milk are alsostaple, which c

43、ontinues to play an important role inhealthy diets all around the world. while we expect tosee steady growth in consumption over the next threeyears, were also expecting to see the dairy industrytake advantage of the new opportunities that go hand-expected to grow steadily following the financial cr

44、isis. forexample, from 2009 to 2012 the cagr of drinking yoghurtis expected to reach 5.8% and that of soy milk 3.1%.in-hand with shifting demographics worldwide fromincreased urbanisation, to ageing populations and anemerging middle class in many developing countries.”consumption grows despite finan

45、cial crisis.worldwide ldp consumption increased by 1.8% from2008 to 2009. consumption in developing markets wasup by 2.9% during this time period, while consumptionin developed markets declined by 0.4%.overall ldp consumption was buoyed by stronger-than-expected global consumption of white milk, whi

46、chincreased by 1.3% to 201 billion litres worldwide from2008 to 2009. eastern europe and africa led consumptiongrowth in the ambient rtd white milk category, withyear-on-year growth of 6.6% and 6.0% respectively.state ofthe industry10marketspotlightshifting demographics transformpakistans dairy indu

47、stryone of pakistans long-standing traditions is that of the this has been partly due to dairy industry educationalmilkman who goes door to door delivering households campaigns which have created awareness of thetheir daily supply of milk. as a result, unprocessed,safety and nutritional benefits of

48、packaged milk.unpackaged milk represents nearly 94% of allliquid dairy products (ldp) consumed in pakistanand has long played an important role as a teacreamer, yoghurt and stand-alone refreshment.from 2006 to 2009, consumption of ldp in pakistansteadily increased in line with population growth,with

49、 a cagr of 2.4%, according to tetra pak data.in 2009, ldp consumption reached 18.9 billion litres maintaining its position as the fourth largest ldpconsumer after india, china and the united states.in the same period, packaged ldp grew at a cagr of8.4% compared with unpackaged products, which grewat

50、 a cagr of 2.1%. tetra pak expects packaged ldp tocontinue growing, with a cagr of 10.4% from 2009 to 2012.pakistan mirrors demographic drivers around the world.more urban, educated and sophisticated consumers,an emerging middle class and a large group of youngerconsumers are transforming its dairy

51、industry. as elsewhere,they demand new, safer, more convenient products.going urbanduring the past 11 years, pakistans urban population hasincreased by 3 percentage points. by 2009, 35.5% wereliving in cities (59.9 million people, 5 million more than in1998), according to tetra pak pakistan. thus, a

52、s people havemoved further from the rural areas where most of the dairyfarms are found, their access to good quality loose milk hasbeen limited due to the lack of a cold supply chain. this hasprovided packaged milk companies with the opportunityto provide good quality, safe milk in an alternative fo

53、rm.more educated, sophisticated consumersthis group values safety, hygiene and convenience; as aresult, from 1999 to 2009, packaged ldp products grewby a cagr of 19%.many consumers also appreciate the fact that packagedmilk does not need to be boiled before use as loose milkdoes. in addition, it can

54、 be stored for up to three monthsbefore opening, so they do not need to source milk daily.households choose premium productsthe growing middle class can afford safer, healthier productsthat cost at least 20% more than loose milk. the numberof pakistani households in the top three socio-economicgroups (as defined by sec a-c, a tool used to measureconsumers prosperity) has grown by