国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)课件

1、国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)1 Multinational Financial Management Alan Shapiro 7th Edition J.Wiley 2.)Gold inflow led to higher prices which reduced surplus; 3.)Gold outflow led to lower prices and increased surplus. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)16 A BRIEF HISTORY III.The Gold Exchange Standard (1925-19

2、31) A.Only U.S. and Britain allowed to hold gold reserves. B.Others could hold both gold, dollars or pound reserves. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)17 A BRIEF HISTORY C.Currencies devalued in 1931 - led to trade wars. D.Bretton Woods Conference - called in order to avoid future protectionist and destruc

3、tive economic policies 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)18 A BRIEF HISTORY V. The Bretton Woods System (1946-1971) 1.U.S.$ was key currency; valued at $1 - 1/35 oz. of gold. 2.All currencies linked to that price in a fixed rate system. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)19 A BRIEF HISTORY 3.Exchange rates allowed

4、 to fluctuate by 1% above or below initially set rates. B. Collapse, 1971 1.Causes: a.U.S. high inflation rate b.U.S.$ depreciated sharply. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)20 A BRIEF HISTORY V. Post-Bretton Woods System (1971-Present) A.Smithsonian Agreement, 1971: US$ devalued to 1/38 oz. of gold. By 19

5、73: World on a freely floating exchange rate system. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)21 A BRIEF HISTORY B. OPEC and the Oil Crisis (1973-774) 1. OPEC raised oil prices four fold; 2. Exchange rate turmoil resulted; 3. Caused OPEC nations to earn large surplus B-O-P. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)22 A BRIEF H

6、ISTORY 4. Surpluses recycled to debtor nations which set up debt crisis of 1980s. C.Dollar Crisis (1977-78) 1.U.S. B-O-P difficulties 2.Result of inconsistent monetary policy in U.S. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)23 A BRIEF HISTORY 3.Dollar value falls as confidence shrinks. D.The Rising Dollar (1980-8

7、5) 1.U.S. inflation subsides as theFed raises interest rates 2.Rising rates attracts global capital to U.S. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)24 A BRIEF HISTORY 3.Result: Dollar value rises. E.The Sinking Dollar:(1985-87) 1.Dollar revaluated slowly downward; 2.Plaza Agreement (1985) G-5 agree to depress US

8、$ further. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)25 A BRIEF HISTORY 3.Louvre Agreement (1987) G-7 agree to support the falling US$. F.Recent History (1988-Present) 1.1988 US$ stabilized 2.Post-1991 Confidence resulted in stronger dollar 3.1993-1995 Dollar value falls 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)26 PART III. THE

9、 EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM I.INTRODUCTION A. The European Monetary System (EMS) 1.A target-zone method (1979) 2.Close macroeconomic policy coordination required. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)27 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM B. EMS Objective: to provide exchange rate stability to all members by holding e

10、xchange rates within specified limits. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)28 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM C.European Currency Unit (ECU) a “cocktail” of European currencies with specified weights as the unit of account. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)29 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM 1. Exchange rate mechanism (E

11、RM) - each member determines mutually agreed upon central cross rate for its currency. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)30 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM 2.Member Pledge: to keep within 15% margin above or below the central rate. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)31 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM D.EMS ups and downs

12、 1. Foreign exchange interventions: failed due to lack of support by coordinated monetary policies. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)32 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM 2. Currency Crisis of Sept. 1992 a. System broke down b.Britain and Italy forced towithdraw from EMS. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)33 THE EUROP

13、EAN MONETARY SYSTEM G.Failure of the EMS: members allowed political priorities to dominate exchange rate policies. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)34 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM H.Maastricht Treaty 1.Called for Monetary Union by 1999 (moved to 2002) 2.Established a single currency: the euro 国际货币体系(国际财务管

14、理JosephF.Greco)35 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM 3.Calls for creation of a single central EU bank 4.Adopts tough fiscal standards 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)36 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM I.Costs / Benefits of A Single Currency A. Benefits 1.Reduces cost of doing business 2.Reduces exchange rate risk

15、 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)37 THE EUROPEAN MONETARY SYSTEM B.Costs 1.Lack of national monetary flexibility. 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)38 PART IV. EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES Transmission Mechanisms A.Trade links contagion spreads through trade B.Financial System -more important transmission mechanism -investors sell off to make up for losses 国际货币体系(国际财务管理JosephF.Greco)39 EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY CRISES Origins of Emerging Market Crises A