盈利预测：在显著下调过后调整周期接近底部0206

1、2012 年 2 月 5 日 亚太 盈利预测：在显著下调过后，调整周期接 近底部 证券研究报告 盈利预测下调势头放缓 过去几个月里，市场盈利预测的下调幅度已超过 10%。即使我们预计未来还会出 现更多调整，但进一步下调的速度可能会放缓。在利好消息方面，全球领先指标 出现了一定程度的上行势头。 主题 1：短期盈利调整与在：短期盈利调整与在 g2 经济体的业务规模 短期盈利预测调整可能仍受到行业在 g2 经济体业务规模的推动。软件/it 服务板 块可能较易出现盈利风险。 主题 2：随着宏观经济企稳，板块盈利复苏：随着宏观经济企稳，板块盈利复苏 随着市场开始计入今年晚些时候的企业利润反弹，各板块盈利

2、复苏的差异将成为 重要的题材。历史分析表明科技和可选消费品板块通常会在盈利周期中处于领先 位置。 四季度业绩期：目前位置小幅低于预期 目前为止，mxapj 指数中有 114 家企业（占总市值的 19%）。实际盈利达到 i/b/e/s 市场预测的 98%。 四季度盈利可能面临风险的板块和股票 在本业绩期，化工、交通运输以及中国零售业的盈利可能不及预期。我们列出了 盈利可能高于或低于预期的 11 只股票。 8 月份以来市场盈利预测被显著下调 mxapj eps level 44 39 2012 2013 2011 34 j-10s-10d-10m-11j-11s-11d-11 资料来源：facts

3、et、i/b/e/s、msci、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 鄧啟志 +852-2978-0722 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 慕天辉, cfa +852-2978-1328 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 caesar maasry +852-2978-7213 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 欧阳汉 +81(3)6437-9888 高盛证券株式会社 高盛集团 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展 这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报 告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 师不是美国

4、finra 的注册/合格研究分析师。本报告仅供分发给高盛 机构客户。 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2 2012 年 2 月 5 日 earnings: closer to the bottom of the downward revision cycle refocusing on asian fundamentals asian equities gained 10% over the past month, making it the strongest january since 2001 in terms of performance. we chara

5、cterize the rally as the market “pricing out” major left-tailed macro risks, thanks to several encouraging developments in europe, including the ecbs 3-year ltro. now that markets are moving back to pricing in the “base case” of moderate growth as investors are less worried about a significant globa

6、l shock occurring, it is time for investors to refocus on asian fundamentals. the results season and, more importantly, corporate guidance should provide useful insights into the trajectory of asian earnings. earnings revisions are incrementally more important to returns throughout the first half of

7、 2011, continuous earnings upgrades were not able to drive equities higher. despite an 11% rise in eps, the mxapj index was flat. an obvious reason is that investors were ahead of the revisions curve and pricing in downgrades before the sell-side analysts. since mid-2011, cuts in consensus earnings

8、estimates have accelerated. we see a “re-coupling” of equities prices and earnings changes (exhibit 1). we expect this to continue, and in this report we make the following arguments on earnings: we still see the current revisions as part of a “moderate correction cycle”, barring renewed external sh

9、ocks. after rapid downgrades in the previous months, we believe we are now closer to the bottom. the pace of further cuts may decelerate, given a more encouraging set of macro data recently in the developed markets. near-term earnings revisions will still be driven by g2 exposures. from this top-dow

10、n perspective, software/it services may be vulnerable to modest downside earnings risks. looking forward into 2h, as the market starts pricing in an earnings growth recovery in 2013, investors should focus on the relative orders of potential profit rebound among sectors. for the current reporting se

11、ason, chemicals, transportation and china retail are sectors that may deliver weaker numbers. early results so far indicate a small miss in 4q earnings. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 亚太 dec-10jun-11feb-11 aug-11 dec-11 sep-00 apr-11 sep-01 oct-11 sep-10sep-95 sep-96 sep-97 sep-98 sep-99sep-02 sep-03 sep-04 sep-05

12、sep-06 sep-07 sep-08 sep-09sep-11 3 2012 年 2 月 5 日 exhibit 1: a “decoupling” then “recoupling” of price and earnings mxapj 12m forward eps and index index level eps 亚太 510 mxapj levelmxapj 12m forward eps 43 490 470 2h: indices and 42 450 430 410 390 370 350 1h: equities fell despite earnings upgrad

13、es earnings revisions moved together 41 40 39 38 37 source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. exhibit 2: the momentum of earnings sentiment has aligned well with significant inflection points in the regional equity index mxapj forward earnings sentiment and index earnings se

14、ntiment (%) 60 forward earnings sentiment (%) 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 mxapj index level 700 mxapj index (right) 600 500 400 300 200 100 sep-10dec-10jun-10mar-11sep-11dec-11 jun-11 4 2012 年 2 月 5 日 earnings revisions: a pau

15、se after rapid downgrades the majority of earnings downgrades in 4q took place during november, when mxapj earnings estimates fell 5% in just one month. since then, the investment community has become more hopeful on the developments in europe, and with the better global macro data, analysts revisio

16、ns have also stabilized. nevertheless, divergence among markets and sectors remains as large as we observed in 3q, and we highlight the following: earnings in global cyclical sectors like computer hardware and transportation continue to be revised down rapidly. this largely explains the cut in estim

17、ates in korea and taiwan. in the last earnings preview, we highlighted that commodity-related sectors were vulnerable to negative earnings surprise, and we are now seeing some small earnings downgrades in steel/aluminum, chemicals, metals/mining, etc. oil and gas is the exception, as oil prices have

18、 been firmly holding up (brent +4%, wti +25% during 4q). indonesia is the only market in which earnings were revised up. we are now closer to the bottom of the earnings cycle; pace of further cuts may slow we expect 6% eps growth for the mxapj index in 2012, vs. 11% by consensus, mainly driven by so

19、fter margin assumptions. this implies some 5% earnings downgrades ahead, although the pace of further cuts could decelerate given the rapid revisions over the past few months. recent macro data has also been more encouraging. our global leading indicator (gli), which has a reasonable linkage with mx

20、apj forward eps growth estimates, is seeing its momentum picking up. on the other hand, if the 4q reporting season turns out to be a huge disappointment, it may be a trigger for another wave of earnings downgrades. historically, negative surprises during earnings season tend to lead to forward earni

21、ngs estimate cuts. exhibit 3: consensus earnings estimates have come down significantly since august mxapj eps level estimates mxapj eps level, weekly 46 亚太 44 42 2013 2013 growth: 40 2012 +13% 38 2012 362011 growth: +11% 34 source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商

22、品和策略研究 philippines singapore indonesia china india thailandmalaysiaaustralia hongkong mxapj korea taiwan industrials/conglos semiconductors retail/durables metals/mining chemicals property utilities media transportation insurance/otherfin. staples/healthcare steel,aluminium software banksautos oilan

23、dgas bldgmat telecom comphw 4q 5 2012 年 2 月 5 日 exhibit 4: korea and taiwan were downgraded most; indonesia is the only market that had upward revisions in 亚太 exhibit 5: computer hardware and transportation were revised down most revisions to 2011e eps level in 4q revisions to 2011e eps level in 4q

24、eps revision (4q) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% eps revision (4q) 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -14% -16% source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. exhibit 6: where do we stand in the earnings downgrade cycle? we expect some 5% downgrades ahead, but are g

25、etting closer to the bottom earnings revision index in the past “major” and “minor” correction cycles earnings revision index 110 minor correction cycle 100 90 80 we expect some downgrades ahead; 70 60 50 40 30 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2011-2012 but now closer to the bottom major correction cycle 01

26、23456789 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 months from beginning of downward cycle source: i/b/e/s global aggregate, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 2000 2001 2010 2012e dec-94dec-95dec-96dec-97dec-98dec-99dec-02dec-03dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-00dec-09dec-0

27、1dec-10dec-94dec-95dec-96dec-97dec-98dec-99dec-02dec-03dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-09dec-00dec-01dec-10dec-11dec-11 2013e 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011e 6 2012 年 2 月 5 日 exhibit 7: our below-consensus earnings forecasts are mainly driven by softer margin assumptions consensus ne

28、t margin 9.4% vs. gs top-down 9.2% 亚太 eps growth (%)mxapj net margin, cons. expectation 14 12 consensus 14% 12% including financials excluding financials 10 8 gs top-down 10% 8% 9.2% 9.4% 7.1% 7.4% 9.8% 7.8% 6 6% 4 4% 2 2% 0 2011p2012e2013e exhibit 8: consensus earnings forecasts have historically b

29、een closely related to the global economic cycle. gli % change yoy vs. mxapj 12-month forward eps growth estimates exhibit 9: . our gli is finally seeing some upward momentum global leading indicator (gli) headline and momentum gli (% change yoy) 15 gli % yoy 10 5 12-month forward eps growth forward

30、 eps growth 35% 30% 25% 20% gli (% chg yoy) 15 10 5 gli (% chg mom, 3mma) 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 015% 0 -0.5 -5 10% 5% -5-1 -1.5 -10 -15 0% -5% -10 -15 headline gligli momentum -2 -2.5 source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, worldscope, goldman sachs global ecs research estimates. exhibit 10: even though earnings re

31、sults are backward looking, surprises may still lead to forward earnings revisions earnings surprise vs. forward earnings revisions changes to fy1 earnings fy0 earnings2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012average surprise worse than -20% -20% to -15% -15% to -10% -10% to -5% -5% to 0%

32、 +0% to +5% +5% to +10% +10% to +15% +15% to +20% better than +20% -35% -9 -4 -4 -3 2 0 12 3 15 -36% -8 -7 -5 -2 0 2 3 0 27 -23% -6 -4 -3 -1 1 1 5 3 28 -16% -5 -7 -2 -4 2 2 5 7 26 -13% -17 -10 -3 -3 1 2 3 9 18 -16% -5 -4 -1 0 1 3 7 10 19 -21% -9 -2 -4 -1 0 2 6 7 34 -22% -9 -7 -4 -1 0 3 5 7 10 -40% -

33、9 -8 -7 -2 1 3 7 6 50 -25% -15 -9 -6 -2 1 3 6 5 39 -27% -12 -6 -4 -2 1 3 6 11 32 -6% -5 -6 -4 0 1 4 7 11 39 -6% -8 -3 -3 -3 1 -1 -4 7 1 -22% -9 -6 -4 -2 1 2 5 7 26 source: factset, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 7 2012 年 2 月 5 日 sectors that may have risks to 4q earnings the

34、 following sectors may deliver weak earnings in 4q, some of which may continue into early 2012 as growth remains soft. analysts assumptions for these sectors may be optimistic relative to where the macro picture currently stands. chemicals: we continue to believe that there may be downside risks to

35、chemicals earnings for 4q11. industry data points show that margins further worsened in 4q, declining 20% on average from the previous quarter. we attribute this to the challenging macro conditions, and given the low visibility of global growth outlook, it remains unclear when chemical companies wil

36、l be out of their bottom of the earnings cycle. transportation: in our view consensus assumption of higher sales growth for airlines may prove optimistic as global growth (both em and dm) significantly slowed in 2011. cargo business growth has stayed negative almost for the entire year. our airlines

37、 analyst believes that taiwanese airlines in particular are most vulnerable to negative surprise as they are very exposed to the dm cargo business. shipping companies have been affected by the low volume growth. in addition, the meaningful decline in freight rates coupled with persistently high fuel

38、 costs suggests there is likely a margin squeeze. our analysts believe that earnings may still miss in 4q even after meaningful downgrades, but they should see a rebound in 2012. china retail: we believe the sector is increasingly vulnerable to earnings disappointments. this is one of the few countr

39、y sectors that earnings estimates have been continuously raised. however, same store sales growth in china seems to be peaking out. on the cost side, labor and rental costs have seen a sharp rise in the past few years, and it takes time for raw material costs to come down even though inflation has r

40、ecently moderated. we are concerned that retailers may face severe margin pressure if revenue does not grow fast enough. in our view, a positive surprise in 4q is less likely to come from a whole sector. in an environment of slower revenue growth, we believe specific stocks with better cost control

41、may beat market expectations. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 亚太 lldpe-ethylene pp-propylene pta-px pta-naphtha hdpe-ethylene abs-naphthapvc-ethylene bd-naphtha sbr-bd-sm pvc-naphtha eg-ethylene px-naphtha propylene-naphtha ethylene-naphtha ps-naphtha jun-10sep-10sep-09jun-09mar-10jun-11mar-11dec-09sep-11dec-10dec-1

42、1 8 2012 年 2 月 5 日 exhibit 11: regional chemicals earnings estimates have had moderate cuts, but probably have more to go. mxapj chemicals eps integer mxapj chemicals eps integer 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 source: factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 e

43、xhibit 12: . as margins fell 20% on average in 4q 4q chemical product margin performance 4q chemical product margin perf 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 亚太 jul-10 jan-10apr-10jan-11oct-10 jul-11 2011e jan-10jan-02jan-03jan-04jan-05jan-06jan-07jan-08jan-09jan-11 jul-10 mar-10jan-10sep-10nov-10mar-

44、11 jan-11 jul-11sep-11nov-11 may-10may-11 jan-12 mar-10jul-10sep-10jun-11sep-11 aug-09 jun-09 may-10nov-10aug-10nov-10 aug-11 may-10may-11 nov-11 2q08 4q08 oct-09dec-09apr-09 feb-10feb-11nov-11 1q112005 2007 oct-11apr-1120002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 bdiy 9 2012 年 2 月 5 日 exhibit 13: c

45、onsensus sales assumptions for airlines may not have fully reflected the global slowdown. nominal g7 gdp growth vs. regional airlines sales growth 亚太 exhibit 14: . and the cargo business has experienced negative growth almost for the entire year far east rftk (revenue freight tones kilometers) growt

46、h nominal gdp growth (%) 6 nominal g7 gdp growth 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 sales growth (%) 20 regional airlines sales growth 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 far east rftk growth 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% exhibit 15: china throughput volume has continuously been on the downtrend china throughput volume growth

47、china throughput volume growth (% yoy) exhibit 16: shippers are under severe margin pressure given lower freight rates but consistently high fuel costs bdiy, ccfi and fuel cost ccfi, fuel cost (indexed at 100) 60%4,500 bdiyccfifuel cost 160 50% 40% 4,000 3,500 150 140 30% 3,000 fuel cost rising 130

48、2,500 20% 10% 0% 2,000 1,500 1,000 120 110 100 -10% -20% 500 0 freight rates falling 90 80 exhibit 17: china retail is one of the few sectors around the region in which earnings estimates are still being raised china retail eps integer exhibit 18: same store sales growth has significantly slowed in

49、china department stores sssg vs. income tax receipts growth china retail eps 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 (yoy%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% gs china dept stores composite same-store-sales index (lhs) income tax receipts growth (rhs) (yoy%) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% source: bloomberg, ceic, compa

50、ny data, factset, i/b/e/s, msci, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 10 2012 年 2 月 5 日 stock screens for 4q earnings surprise our top-down earnings season stock screen, as we have used consistently in the past, focuses on the following criteria to screen for earnings surprise: consensu

51、s earnings sentiment: our analysis suggests that strong earnings revisions could signal earnings surprises, given that earnings visibility typically improves closer to the reporting date but analysts tend to revise numbers in a step-wise manner. thus, the sentiment of revisions prior to results can

52、signal a surprise in the same direction (refer to asia pacific: portfolio strategy: surprise me!, feb 14, 2007). historical surprise track record: in addition, we find companies that have surprised before are likely to do so again. this methodology is effective in identifying companies that tend to

53、give overly optimistic or conservative guidance. exhibits 19-20 show the list of stocks that may surprise in earnings based on the above methodologies. exhibit 19: candidates that may surprise on the upside 亚太 us$1bn= 0= 50% bloomberg namemarket listed cap 6m advt 1m (us$mn) (us$mn) revision track r

54、ecord est. reportin g date wil sp 1288 hk 998 hk 270 hk sohu uw wilmar international ltd. agricultural bank of china ltd. china citic bank corp. ltd. guangdong investment ltd. s inc. singapore china china china china 27,898 15,063 9,385 3,657 2,314 25.7 79.7 19.8 6.2 86.4 4% 10% 17% 0% 0% 80% na 50%

55、 70% 60% feb 22 mar 22 mar 21 end mar feb 6 source: factset, goldman sachs global ecs research. exhibit 20: candidate that may surprise on the downside us$1bn= 60% bloomberg namemarket listed cap 6m advt 1m (us$mn) (us$mn) revision track record est. reportin g date 009830 kp 011200 kp sar sp 297 hk

56、028670 kp 2609 tt hanwha chemical corp. hyundai merchant marine co. ltd. sakari resources ltd. sinofert holdings ltd. stx pan ocean co. ltd. yang ming marine transport corp. korea korea singapore china korea taiwan 3,736 3,733 2,104 1,920 1,343 1,321 79.3 4.4 10.6 2.5 9.1 5.5 (10%) (14%) 0% (13%) (8

57、%) (7%) 82% 64% 60% 67% 67% 73% end feb feb 6 feb 24 mar 26 feb 21 end mar source: factset, goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 11 2012 年 2 月 5 日 reporting season: early results and granularity the 4q earnings season in asia has started on a soft note. so far 114 companies on the mxapj

58、 index (19% of index cap) have reported, mostly in korea and india. actual earnings are tracking 98% of i/b/e/s consensus estimates (exhibit 21). more than half of msci korea has announced results, and most of them are tech or globally exposed companies. the majority of the numbers moderately missed

59、 estimates. korea autos, after several quarters of strong earnings, disappointed as well, due to lower-than-expected margins at select business segments. companies in india have met expectations. the significant inr depreciation in the 4q has been a boost to the bottom line for companies that earn revenues in foreign currency. in the coming weeks, focus will shift to australia, then to hong kong/china in march. as usual the 4q reporting season will overlap with that for 1q12, and it continues into april. in the appendix we show the earnings calendar by market and sector for february and ma