外文翻译在中欧和东欧外商直接投资和生产力的聚集 行业水平的调查

1、中文3490字11毕业论文外文原文外文题目:FDI and Econo mic Growth Relati on shi p:An Emp irical Studyon Malaysia处:Intern ati onal Busin ess Research,April,2008者:Har Wai Mun and Teo Kai Lin and Yee Kar Man文:FDI and Economic Growth Relationsh ip: An Emp irical Study on MalaysiaHar Wai Mun Teo Kai Lin Yee Kar ManAbstract

2、Foreig n direct inv estme nt (FDI) has bee n an imp orta nt source of econo mic growth forMalaysia, bringing in cap ital inv estme nt, tech no logy and man ageme nt kno wledge n eeded for econo mic growth. Thus, this paper aims to study the relati on shi p betwee n FDI and econo mic growth in Malays

3、ia for the p eriod 1970-2005 using time series data. Ordi nary least square (OLS) regressi ons and the emp irical an alysis are con ducted by using annual data on FDI and economy growth in Malaysia over the 1970-2005 p eriods. The paper used annual data fromIMF International Financial Statistics tab

4、les, published by International Monetary Fund to find out the relati on shi p betwee n FDI and econo mic growth in Malaysia case. Results show that LGDP, LGNI and the LFDI series in Malaysia are I(1) series. There is sufficient evidenee to show that there are significant relationship between economi

5、c growth and foreig n direct inv estme nt in flows (FDI) in Malaysia. FDI has direct p ositive impact onRGD P, which FDI rate in crease by 1% will lead to the growth rate in crease by 0.046072%.Furthermore, FDI also has direct po sitive impact on RGNI because whe n FDI rate in crease by 1 %, this wi

6、ll lead the growth in crease by 0.044877%.s economyKeywords: Growth, FDI in flows, FDI and growth relati onship, Malaysia1. IntroductionThis paper defines foreign direct investment (FDI) as international capital flows in which a firm in one country creates or expands a subsidiary in another. It invo

7、lves not only a transfer of resource but also the acquisition of control. Since the 1990s, FDI has been a source of economic growth for Malaysia, believing that besides needed capital, FDI brings in several benefits. The most important benefit for a developing country like Malaysia is thatFDI could

8、create more employment. In addition, technology transfer is another benefit for the host countries. When the foreign factories are set up in their countries, they will expose to higher technology production and efficiency in management. Once in future, they able to produce goods and services as comp

9、etitive as foreigners do. Nevertheless, insufficient funds for investment are the main reason to seek FDI. Usually many less-developed countries lack of fund for investment. Foreign direct investment can help them to develop their country and improve their standard of living by creating more employm

10、ent. According to Mohd NazariIsmail (2001), he finds that foreign direct investment play a significant role in the Malaysian economy especially in the electronic industry. In addition to creating more jobs and generating export,the foreign multinationals have also contributed to the development of t

11、he technical capabilities of the locals. This is through the process of technology transfer.2. Trends and Patterns of FDI Flow in MalaysiaFigure 1 presents the trend of FDI inflow to Malaysia, during 1970 to 2004. For the past two decade, Malaysia was receiving a lot FDI. FDI stock in Malaysia start

12、s to grow up slowly by 1970s. FDI inflows had increased almost twenty-fold during 1970s to 1990s, from $94 million dollar in 1970s to $2.6 billion dollar by 1990s, although there was some fluctuation between the years. Even though the FDI was increased over the year, however, since the early of 1990

13、s, there have been several periods of slowdown. In 1993, FDI drop drastically dropped drastically due to a slowdown in investments from two main sources of investments for Malaysia - Japan and Taiwan. One of the main reasons for this slowdown is the rise in wage rates in Malaysia relative to other A

14、sian countries (such as China, Vietnam and Indonesia).The total FDI flows in Malaysia was peaked at 1996, when it achieve $7.3 billion dollar.The financial crisis of 1997 that affected most of the Southeast Asia also serves to reduceFDI into Malaysia. Si nee the early of 2000s, the FDI flows in Mala

15、ysia tend to incon siste ntand fluctuate ran domly, however it also achieve an average in flows of US$3billio n per year.e ooo7 OOOe ooo5 OOO4 OOO3 OOO2 OOO1 OOOoL lllllllllLlllACC cm YEARFigure： h FDJ Jiitlows u Malaysia, (i niitliGii dolLjirs 1970-2004Source: Un ited Nati ons Conference on Trade a

16、nd Devel opment (UNCTAD), various issues.In gen eral, Malaysia is the sec ond fastest grow ing economy in the South East Asia n regi on with an average Gross Nati onal P roduct (GNP) growth of eight -plus p erce nt per year in the last seven years. Since independence in 1957, Malaysia has moved from

17、 an agriculturally based economy to a more diversified and export orie nted one. The Malaysia n market is fairly openly oriented, with tariffs only averaging approximately fifteen percent and almost non-existent non-tariff barriers and foreign exchange controls. With a stable p olitical en vir onmen

18、 t, i ncreas ing per cap ita in come, and the poten tial for regi onal in tegration throughout the Associati on of South East Asia n Nati ons (ASEAN), Malaysia is an attractive prospect for FDI.The key success factor of the FDI con tributes to the econo mic growth in Malaysia becauseof the good envi

19、ronment. If the environment not suitable, it will not encourage foreig n inv estors come to inv est. Good favorable con diti ons make inv estors face fewer p roblems because all in vestors can run their bus in ess convenien tly in order to make more p rofit with life safety. Few vital clues for fore

20、ig n direct inv estme nt in clude p olitical stability, economic stability, lower wages, and easy accessibility to plentiful raw material, special rights, and person safety.Long term p olitical stability makes foreig n inv estors con fide nt with theirs bus in esses will succeed and remai n p rofita

21、ble.Besides, econo mic in stability like in flati on, foreig n exchange fluctuation and economic crisis also another important environment factor for investor to consider because can cause the business lose without knowing in advance.Furthermore, foreign investors try to search the country with lowe

22、r wages to reduce average cost of production and hence strongly persuade foreigners to invest in that country.A country with plenty of raw materials necessary for the production attracts investors more than a country without it and personal safety also vital to foreign investors because life is more

23、 valuable than money, nobody like to take risk as being killed or kidnapped in foreign country.3. Objective of StudyThe main objective in this paper, therefore aims to study the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Malaysia for the period 1970-2005 using time series data. The rest of the

24、paper is structured as follow: Section 2, there will have review on the empirical literature done on FDI and economic growth. Section 3 will be the data and methodology.Section 4 will be the result and interpretation and finally is Section 5 will be the findings from this study.4. Literature ReviewF

25、oreign direct investment (FDI) has played a leading role in many of the economies of the region. There is a widespread belief among policymakers that foreign direct investment (FDI) enhancesthe productivity of host countries and promotes development. There are several studies done on FDI and economi

26、c growth. Some of the studies testing the relationship between FDI and economic growth while some are find out the causality between two variables. Their findings are varies from different method use on their research such as some of the researchers found that FDI has a positive effect on economic g

27、rowth.For example is Balasubramanyam et al (1996) analyses how FDI affects economic growth in developing economies. Using cross-section data and OLS regressions he finds that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth in host countries using an export promoting strategy but not in countries using

28、an import substitution strategy.Olofsdotter (1998) provides a similar analysis. Using cross sectional data she finds that an increase in the stock of FDI is positively related to growth and that the effect is stronger for host countries with a higher level of institutional capability as measured by

29、the degree of property rights protection and bureaucratic efficiency in the host country. Besides that,Borensztein et.al (1998) examine the effect of foreign direct investment(FDI) on economic growth in a cross country regression framework, utilizing data on FDI flows from industrial countries to 69

30、 developing countries over the last two decades. Their outcome of this study is that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology, contributing relatively more to growth than domestic investment. However, the higher productivity of FDI holds only when the host country has a minimum thr

31、eshold stock of human capital. Thus, FDI contributes to economic growth only when a sufficient absorptive capability of the advanced technologies is available in the host economy. Another study based on developing economies is Borensztein et al (1998) that examines the role of FDI in the process of

32、technology diffusion and economic growth. The paper concludes that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth but that the magnitude of the effect depends on the amount of human capital available in the host country. In contrast to the preceding studies, De Mello (1999) only finds weak indications

33、 of a positive relationship between FDI and economic growth despite using both time series and panel data fixed effects estimations for a sample of 32 developed and developing countries.On the other hand, Zhang (2001) and Choe (2003) analyses the causality between FDI and economic growth. Zhang uses

34、 data for 11 developing countries in East Asia and LatinAmerica. Using cointegration and Granger causality tests,Zhang (2001) finds that in five caseseconomic growth is enhanced by FDI but that host country conditions such as trade regime and macroeconomic stability are important. According to the f

35、indings of Choe (2003), causality between economic growth and FDI runs in either direction but with a tendency towards growth causing FDI; there is little evidence that FDI causes host country growth.Rapid economic growth could result in an increase in FDI inflows.There is further study done by Chow

36、dhury and Mavrotas (2003) which examine the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using an innovative econometric methodology to study the direction of causality between the two variables. The study involves time series data covering the period from 1969 to 2000 for three developing

37、 countries, namely Chile, Malaysia and Thailand, all of them major recipients of FDI with different history of macroeconomic episodes, policy regimes and growth patterns. Their empirical findings clearly suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Chile and not vice versa while for both Ma

38、laysia and Thailand, there is a strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between the two variables. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of the result. In addition,Frimpong and Abayie (2006) examine the causal link betwee

39、n FDI and GDP growth forGhana for the pre and post structural adjustment program (SAP) periods and the direction of the causality between two variables.Annual time series data covering the period from 1970 to 2005 was used. The study finds no causality between FDI and growth for the total sample per

40、iod and the pre-SAP p eriod. FDI however caused GDP growth duri ng the po st-SA P p eriod.Finally, Bengoa and Sanchez-Robles (2003) investigate the relationship between FDI, economic freedom and economic growth using panel data for Latin America. Comparing fixed and random effects estimations they c

41、onclude that FDI has a significant positive effect on host country economic growth but similar to Borensztein et al (1998) the magnitude depends on host country conditions. Carkovic and Levine (2002) use a panel dataset covering 72 developed and developing countries in order to analyse the relations

42、hip betweenFDI inflows and economic growth. The study performs both a cross-sectional OLS analysis as well as a dynamic panel data analysis using GMM. The paper concludes that there is no robust link running from inward FDI to host country economic growth.译 文：在中欧和东欧，外商直接投资和生产力的聚集 - 行业水平的调查Martin Bij

43、sterbosch , Marcin Kolasa摘要本文利用工业水平的数据，阐述在中欧和东欧外商直接投资流入对生产力收敛效 果的实证研究。四个结论脱颖而出。首先，在国家和工业层面，对生产力具有较强的 收敛效果。其次，对生产力的发展，外商直接投资流入起着重要的作用。第三，外商直接投资对生产力的影响严重取决于受援国和产业的吸收能力。第四，不同性质的国 家，行业和时间方面的一些主要调查结果。关键词：生产力聚集，外商直接投资，吸收能力3. 理论思考虽然外商直接投资绝对不是发生国际技术扩散的唯一途径，但它被广泛认为是最 重要的。这是因为跨国公司在技术上是最先进的企业，将较大数额花费在研究与发展 上及使

44、用更好的管理做法。这意味着，外商直接投资可能涉及优越技术的转让，这可 以遍及整个经济，造成在国内企业生产率的提高（如 Findlay，1978 年或 Romer，1993年），使外商直接投资和发展中国家的经济增长之间的联系具有坚实的理论基础。依照Borensztein（ 1998年）等，这关系可以Barro和Sala-i-Martin （ 1997年）开发利用国际 技术扩散模型框架和由 Romer（ 1990年）或Grossman和Helpman （1991年）的开创 性贡献得出内生增长理论。根据这一设置，人均（即劳动生产率）增长通过积累人力资本和扩张在最终产品 生产中使用的资本货物的品种数量

45、而出现的。这些品种是由国内和对经济进行直接投 资的外国公司一并生产。资金品种数量的增加，需要提供固定的费用来适应更先进技 术的经济体系。此成本随外国企业在东道国经济的股份运行，反映在追赶的过程模拟 下降可能性，并与发达的国家呈负相关的技术差距。类似的想法也可以被纳入新古典增长模型。例如，王（ 1990 年）表明增加有效的 知识应用于生产可认为是外商直接投资的作用。 Nelson和Phelps （1966年）提出对技 术扩散的可能性的描述， 涉及人力资本仿制趋同中下降过程的重要作用。 Duczynsk（i 2003年）采用国际技术扩散的概念纳入资本流动的拉姆齐框架，并讨论了在经济转型方面对该模型

46、的影响。在这些理论思考的基础上，我们可以相对于发达经济体的相对生产力水平和人力 资本为主要解释变量，利用外商直接投资建立简单的生产率增长的追赶型经济模型， 该模型的精确规范可以采取不同的形式（见第 4节）。不过，虽然外商直接投资被普遍认为是经济重组和国际技术扩散的主要渠道，外商直接投资流入可能无法足以保证生产力的提高。在某种程度上这些流量转化为技术 进步和生产力增长取决于该部门和国家的吸收能力。反过来，基本的技术知识的水平取决于更先进的技能东道国或部门（如见世界银行， 2008年）。吸收能力的概念可以通过扩展简单的实证模型勾勒出上述包括解释变量主体间的 相互作用。例如，通过与外商直接投资的相对

47、生产力水平的互动，利用计量科学的技 术，我们可以检测到外国资本的流入对吸收能力的依赖及其获得的收益程度。特别是， 通过Glass和Saggi （1998年）的假说，我们可以测试到，较大的发展差距和国内企业 较为有限的能力意味着通过外商直接投资获得的低质量的技术转移受益于外商潜在的 溢出效应（这意味着长期互动的负面影响）。另一方面，Findlay（ 1978年）提出的另种积极替代假说，在相对落后的经济中，强调抓住大型技术变革的机遇和改变巨大压 力。吸收能力也可以考虑到同时与人力资本和相对生产力水平（作为潜在的技术转移的代理）和外商直接投资流入之间的互动。Nelson和PheIps （1966年）

48、提出的一个经典的参考作用是强调在技术扩散的人力资本，在他们相对的的成长技术前沿回归中，人力资本质量的措施与生产力差距的影响互动。Borensztein（ 1998年）和Balasubramanyan1999 年）确认外商直接投资和人力资本的质量之间的联系。必须指出的是，在文献中，人力资本和相对生产力不是唯一的吸收能力的代理。特别是地方企业吸收国外的知识的能力，可以依赖他们自身的创新工作（见Cohen和Levinthal ， 1989年）。同时，一系列广泛的其他特点，如竞争压力、金融市场的发展、 法规等，在外商直接投资的作用下，可以影响赶超进程的速度和规模的潜在溢出效应。4计量经济战略在一个潜在

49、的解释变量的定义下，一个适当的计量经济战略的选择是不简单的。一般来说，在经验增长文献中，最受欢迎的方法是分为两个组，我们将称之为截面和时间序列研究。利用大量文献得到，第一组包括主要是跨国家或（少量）跨产业的关联经济增长 和广泛的解释变量。在回归中使用的是在相对平均长的时间跨度变量，涵盖整个样本（如 Barro, 1991年；Mankiw , Romer和 Weil, 1992年）或非重叠的平均数形式（如Borensztein ， 1998 年。 Schadler， 2006 年）。对截面研究的主要优势是，他们的结果是不太可能出现驱动的周期性变动。此外， 通过利用截面信息， 他们可以更好的解决不

50、同国家或行业之间的表现差异的相关问题。然而在实践中，后者的优势可能会破坏遗漏变量问题和内生性，导致在利益系数的估 计中产生潜在的严重偏差。第二组的方法是时间序列研究，旨在测试利益内部关系而不是国家或行业之间。每年这种类型的研究主要是依靠观察，并使用面板数据的方法（例如，见Islam， 1995年; Griffith ， 2004年; Carkovic 和 Levine ， 2005 年）。该时间序列方法的最大优点是，它不存在可能影响纯截面回归的较偏见的资源。这是因为在面板固定效应包含的内容有助于控制各个考虑对象之间的异质性，使其没 有遗漏严重的偏差问题。此外，尽管在一个相当机械的方式，但是更先

51、进的面板数据 的技术，主要依赖于矩（ GMM ）的一般方法，以试图解决内生性问题。该时间序列方 法的主要弱点是，它不能利用截面数据的变化和通过使用相对较高的频率数据，它可能无法充分考虑中期和长期的关系。虽然似乎有一种倾向，在实证发展文献中常使用 时间序列的方法，但人们必须牢记，它是有缺陷的。因此，作为一个稳健性的问题，使用另一种方法检查是否获得结果可能是有用的， 至少也是十分相似的。任何时间序列和横截面的数据之间显著的差异将被谨慎的用作 解释结果。鉴于上述考虑，我们实证研究将依靠这两种方法，其中的细节摘要如下。在时间序列方法，我们采用 Arellano 和 Bond（1991 年）开发的系统的

52、 GMM 估计 框架，然后由Arellano和Bover （1995）和Blundell和Bond （1998年）进行扩展。更具体地说，在劳动生产率年均增长对解释变量设定的速度滞后时期，我们利用虚拟变 量建立回归方程。该系统 GMM 方法使用的原因， 是由于我们的规范可以被改写， 使中部和东部欧洲 成员国表示为它自身生产力水平的滞后和在欧元区生产力的滞后水平。如果在不同时 期，且样本数较小时，对存在的滞后因变量意味着使用估算面板数据模型的标准方法 产生偏见的结果，如固定效应估计（见 Nickell ， 1981 年）。其他滞后型解释变量，特别是外商直接投资，在不同国家和普遍行业间，预计虚拟变量之间的生产率增长和右边的周期性变动的可能变量，旨在避免同时性的偏见。截面数据的方法是在表面的两个方程中，把样本分裂成两个五年样本期间的技术 应用。所有在方程中的变量被表示为五年平均水平，除了在一年初期测得的相对生产力水平。必须指出的是，我们的样本是来自不同标准的跨行业研究，因为它既有国家 和行业层面，这使得它可以作为国家和行业的虚拟变量进行估计。当然，这并不等于可以完全控制在对象的不可观测异质性的具体影响（如全套国家行业的时间序列方 法）。但是，它是合理的预期，这一战略可能减少困扰截面估计的传统偏见。替代品实 证增长文献（质量机构，政府规模，宏观