_20201019_010851论文igu2009docswgcfinal00593

1、Economic and Administrative Leverages for Extension of compressed natural gas vehicle motor-fuel application 25-year experience of UkraineIgor Orlov, Victor Kotlin (AC Ukrtransgas, Ukraine)E-mail: IOKeywords: compressed natural gas, CNG conversion of vehicles, CNG-filling station

2、s, CNG-fuelled motor vehicles.IntroductionIn the beginning of 90-ies in the USA there were 2-3 research compressor plants for natural gas compression (CNG) for it to be used as the motor-fuel. In 15 years, the USA occupies the first place in the world in number of the CNG filling stations (CNGFS) an

3、d the sixth place in the number of the natural gas vehicles (NGVs). In the beginning of 2009 the USA occupies fifth and fourteenth places respectively.Within this period Ukraine increased the number of its CNGFS from 69 to 200-210 (89 of them being owned by AC“Ukrtransgas”). The number of the CNG ca

4、rs in Ukraine declined from 40-45 thousand vehicles available in 1991 to less than 10 thousand vehicles in 1998, growing to 100-110 thousand vehicles by the end of 2008 (Fig.1).300025002000150010005000200820041999Fig. 1 Changes in CNG stations numbers in different countries during the period of 1997

5、-2009 years.At the same time such countries as Pakistan, Brazil and China have made a much more significant jump both in increase of number of the CNG stations and NGVs within recent years. What is the reason of such dissimilarity? What administrative or economic leverages actuate extension of CNG u

6、se as motor-fuel and where is the line which the state should not cross?ContentThe Ukrainian market for CNG used to fuel motor vehicles experienced several starts. First experience of filling vehicles with CNG dates back to the time before the World War II, when in November of 1937 year the first CN

7、G filling station was constructed working on associated petroleum gas from Priazovskoye oilfield. That CNGFS had a capacity of 180 m3 a year and provided with CNG as a motor fuelCanada SwitzerlandEgypt Korea Sweden Volibia VenezuelaFrance Australia Austria Armenia UkraineRussian FederationThailand B

8、angladeshIndiaJapan ColombiaIran ItalyGermanyUSAChina Brazil Argentina19992001200320042005200620082009Pakistan22200423500500200019232600909%212%118%100%400%96%135%Argentina504896112712241334145217711801178%126%109%109%109%122%102%Brazil391316307601153113816241688336%481%121%152%99%143%104%China10702

9、703003554005611260700%386%111%118%113%140%225%USA1102125013001300130013001100816113%104%100%100%100%85%74%Germany55185322445548662781804336%174%138%123%121%118%103%Italy307355463471500568609700116%130%102%106%114%107%115%Iran12333030402637200%150%100%1000%100%1340%158%Colombia2228565690100377401127%

10、200%100%161%111%377%106%Japan62140226271270-327327226%161%120%100%100%India6771661921922003253251283%216%116%100%104%163%100%Bangladesh-5255074122229296500%200%148%165%188%129%Thailand115232780202253100%500%460%117%296%253%125%Russian Federation187207218207213134222226111%105%95%103%63%166%102%Ukrai

11、ne96100130140145164224224104%130%108%104%113%137%100%approximately 76 specially equipped vehicles of ZIS-5 type.The period of rapid growth in the number of CNG-fuelled vehicles was observed in 1950-ies. At that time several thousand converted vehicles were in operation in the USSR. The period of rap

12、id expansion was replaced by the decline. Large oil resources were prospected at that time and oil-refining industry began to satisfy all demands of motor transport.The crisis of 1970-ies stressed again the issue that natural gas can be used as a motor fuel. Then it became evident that oil supplies

13、are not large enough and it is necessary to search for alternatives. In addition, large supplies of natural gas were prospected at that time. Starting from 1980-ies the next stage in CNGFS development began.In Ukraine the construction of specialized stations was started in year 1984 when four CNGFS

14、were built. The next year nine more stations were constructed. In total, 48 stations were constructed by the end of 1990 year. Maximum sales of CNG reached 310 million m3, and an average CNGFS load reached 52,1% of design objectives. Then, the estimated number of CNG-fuelled vehicles in Ukraine was

15、around 50-60 thousand units.Such rapid expansion in the number of vehicles equipped with gas cylinder equipment (GCE) and, correspondingly, growth of CNG consumption as a motor fuel was based purely on committed efforts of national government. Decisions about volumes of CNGFS construction, correspon

16、ding CNG conversion of freight and bus fleet, cylinder and equipment manufacturing were taken at the level of governmental Ministries. For example, a production line for all-metal cylinders having capacity of 100 thousand units per year was launched in Mariupol metallurgic plant.Fig.2 Annex #6 to re

17、solution of Council of Ministers of the USSR from year 1986 concerning volumes of substitution of a liquid fuel with CNG for the period of 1986-1990 years.In 1991-1998 years CNG consumption in Ukraine decreased to the level of 113.3 million m3 per year.The load of CNGFS owned by AC Ukrtransgas decre

18、ased to 17.0% of design objectives and the size of CNG-fuelled fleet decreased to the level of 10-15 thousand units.665.0 670.0675.0 675.0 665.0 665.0 675.0 675.0 675.0 682.5 682.5 682.5 682.5 682.53898989mln m387878989650.08185878685868584610.0 630.077590.0 595.0737069600550.0- designed network cap

19、acity, million m361515.0- CNGFS number54500465.047450.165.9%397.3 373.1 58.1%55.3%400250.025310.052.1%279.0279.8300.0270.5300247.947.3%45.9% 42.9%44.4%249.8233.845.1%36.0%37.3%189.036.7%140.014192.0173.620028.9%26.1%142.7- ffaaccttuuaal lgagsassasleasl,ems,ilmlioinllimo3n m340.04104.822.5%126.521.1%

20、 117.8 17.6%- percentage of station loading17.5%- percentage of station loading56.410022.6%113.317.0%11.01.12.7% 7.8%01984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993years1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002200320042005 20062007 2008Fig.3 Gas sale dynamicsConstruction of first private CNGFS

21、 began at that time. In general, CNGFS were constructed in close vicinity to existing filling stations and were supposed to service exclusively private motor vehicles. Those CNGFS were of garage type designed to service from 45 to 90 vehicles per day. They were equipped with 1-2 gas-filling columns

22、(GFC) and filling ramp for slow filling. CNG price reached the level of 70-80% of low- octane A-76 petrol price. All CNG-fuelled vehicles used at that time were earlier-converted ones and new cases of CNG conversion were practically absent.Beginning from year 1999 the consumption of CNG as a motor f

23、uel started to grow. CNG price decreased from 80% of a liquid fuel price, then to 60% and further to 40-50%. Starting from that period volumes of CNG consumption began to grow rapidly. Annual growth was equal to 50 -70 million m3. Conversion of vehicles was performed by private firms which started t

24、o appear as mushrooms after the rain. Derzavtotrans Institute, Proekt Research Institute and Research Institute of traffic safety were responsible for general supervision over conversion process. These Institutes issued certificates allowing to convert vehicles to use CNG.The use of CNG as a motor f

25、uel increased then rather contrary than owing to the state support. Progress plant in Berdichev together with Dnepropetrovsk Pipe Institute organized the manufacturing of all- metal CNG cylinders having 219 mm in diameter. The use of alloy steel allowed to get metal intensity of cylinders at the lev

26、el of 0.9 kg/m3 which was significantly lower the usual values (1.12 and 1.9, correspondingly). Cylinders of different length but similar in diameter were manufactured, the latter feature being the only drawback. Manufacturing of cylinders having 320 and 450 mm in diameter was not mastered in Ukrain

27、e and at the beginning of 2000-ies their production was completely stopped due to the absence of pipes from which they were made. The price of a pipe of Russian manufacture did not allow to make the price of cylinders competitive, at the same time such pipes were not produced in Ukraine. The increas

28、e in diameter was stipulated by easier installation of such cylinders within vehicles.Demand for GCE was so high that all second-hand cylinders were used in several years and their price rose near the price of new ones. Progress plant in Berdichev stopped manufacturing cylinders and that fact contri

29、buted to the entry of cylinders of Russian and Polish manufacture to the Ukrainian market. At present, no manufacturing of CNG cylinders takes place in Ukraine, however, there are plans to start in several plants including Fakel plant in Fastiv. Producing cylinders from a plate would allow to vary t

30、hem easily both in diameter and length, but this approach makes them somewhat more expensive in comparison to those manufactured from a pipe.During the period of rapid expansion in CNG use, from 1999 to 2005 year CNG was the main alternative to liquid motor fuels. Market instability and variations i

31、n sale excise tax practically prevented the use of liquefied oil gas (propane-butane) as a motor fuel.373.554.7%389.057.0%450.566.0%90%Load increase Gas/A-76 petrol Load80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008-30%Fig.4 Changes in factual load of CNGFS owned

32、by AC Ukrtransgas and CNG/A-76 petrol price ratio.The analysis of profitability of vehicle operation (calculated for a freight vehicle having a mileage of 200 km/day, fuel consumption of 35 l/100 km and 37 m3/100 km, conversion cost equal to 10 thousand gryvnias and capital return period of one year

33、) shows that in severe conditions that urge to return a capital within one year the attractiveness of investment into CNG conversion became evident in year 2000 when the average profitability of CNG-fuelled vehicles reached 23-25%. This was reflected in the pronounced rise of CNGFS load during 2000-

34、2001 years.%10050050gas -76, %30354045505560Fig.5 Profitability levels of operation of a freight vehicle fuelled by CNG.In addition, petrol price is also very important. For example, its price of 500 gryvnias/ton observed in 1997 year (year average) does not permit to credit CNG conversion because o

35、n these conditions credit would be repaid during 5-7 years.In 2005 year when CNG price was equal to 1002 gryvnias/1000 m3 (or 1.02 gryvnia/m3) with respect to the price of A-76 petrol - 2254 gryvnias/ton (or 2.0-2.2 grivnias/l) CNG conversion of vehicles was very attractive and bore practically no r

36、isk. According to calculations, in case of more than 2-fold price difference between A-76 petrol and CNG a vehicle owner receiving 9-month-long credit to install GCE was able to save money starting from the very first day, even taking payment of interest and credit repayment into account.In the peri

37、od of credit repayment it is possible to save about 26-44% (when a mileage is equal to 200187822542005A-76 pgrivetrol price, nias/ton119513211261396270002004802500199920022001200319981997km/day). In 9 months, i.e. after credit repayment, saving will be in the range of 56-64%. Credit interest rate eq

38、uals to 17% per year being a typical value for consumer landing sector in year 2005. In this case, there is no need in deposit money and a vehicle owner can avoid investing his own money and is able to save money from fuel costs immediately. With the aim to keep a deposit during credit period instal

39、led equipment is being insured that is matching with a standard bank practice.When using such a scheme a vehicle owner possessing, for example, a freight Gazel minivan goes to zero (i.e. does not spend additionally on CNG and installed equipment during payback period), at mean daily mileage of 81 km

40、, while at mean daily mileage of 200 km he saves 0.17-0.18 thousand dollars per month in comparison with petrol in the period of credit return (38% of petrol costs), and 0.25-0.30 thousand dollars per month (64% of petrol costs) after credit repayment.Crediting GCE installation allows to solve one m

41、ore recently evaluated problem dealing with the disappearance of second-hand, relatively cheap CNG cylinders from the market. Manufacturers propose new cylinders at a price which is in 2-3 times higher than the price of second-hand cylinders. If to use new cylinders then general costs of CNG convers

42、ion rise 44-78%.Meanwhile calculations show that even if new cylinders are used the saving equals 17-36% of petrol costs during credit period, while the prolongation of this period up to one year permits to save practically at a previous level. Thus, the prolongation of credit period from 9 to 12 mo

43、nths allows, in a great measure, to solve the problem dealing with new cylinders.After rapid expansion in the use of CNG as a motor fuel the decline followed starting from the fourth quarter of 2006 year when sales experienced 20% drop. The main reason for this was significant decrease in the price

44、of a propane-butane mixture. Its price decreased to 1.4-1.5 gryvnia per liter, while CNG selling price was equal to 1.6-1.8 gryvnia per 1 m3. CNG conversion of vehicles did no practically take place. In addition, the trend was observed to switch already converted vehicles from CNG to a propane-butan

45、e mixture.CNG/-76CNG/LPG140,0%LPG/a-76 90,0%80,0%130,0%LPG/a-76120,0%110,0%70,0%60,0%100,0%90,0%50,0%CNG/-7640,0%80,0%70,0%30,0%20,0%60,0%50,0%CNG/LPG10,0%0,0%40,0%20052006200720082009Fig.6 Changes in the price of motor fuels relative to each other.In addition, starting from year 2006 the negative t

46、endency was observed - the decrease in rate of expansion for CNG use which was related to the newly practice acquired in many large cities of Ukraine to refresh fleets of general use vehicles (first of all, minivans) and communal transport fleets with diesel- equipped vehicles. During 2007 year test

47、s of CNG-fuelled Bogdan minivan continued and private company performed gas-diesel conversion of 10-15 vehicles in Kharkov. Serial production of CNG-fuelled Bogdan- type minivans or large CityLAZ or MAZ buses currently takes no place.This situation contradicts the Energy strategy of Ukraine taken fo

48、r the period until 2030 year and Branch-wise program of energy saving and implementation of alternative motor fuels in transport on 2006- 2010 years (order of the Ministry of transport of Ukraine from 09.02.2006 #114) which recognize the expansion of CNG use to fuel motor vehicles as a long-term pri

49、ority.The reason is a passive policy of the state in supporting alternative motor fuels. More than 11 different programs and concepts dealing with this issue were initiated during the period of Independence of Ukraine but lack of financing and governmental support remains topical.In contrast to Ukra

50、ine, USA actively supported equipment manufacturers, CNGFS owners and owners of CNG-fuelled vehicles: three federal laws regulate tax and credit benefits, subsidies to purchase vehicles, CGE and equipment for CNGFS. Similar benefits and subsidies are specified in legislative acts of several states.I

51、n Ukraine, in addition to state-owned CNGFS private stations began to appear starting from 2000 year. At the beginning of 2009 year there were 200-210 CNGFS in total, 91 of them being state-owned. Thefleet of CNG-fuelled vehicles increased up to 100-110 thousand units.The significant growth in the n

52、umber of CNG-fuelled vehicles, petrol price and decrease in CNG/petrol price ratio stimulated significant rise in demand for CNGFS. During 2000-2009 years up to 130 private stations have been constructed and approximately 30-40 private stations are being designed and constructed. In majority of case

53、s these CNGFS have capacity of 45, 60 and 75 filling acts per day. The rest of CNGFS have capacity of 250-500 filling acts per day.Private stations are, in general, placed in close vicinity to existing CNGFS owned by AC Ukrtransgas because of current fleet of vehicles fuelled by CNG. The development

54、 of new territories goes slowly because of low profitability of CNGFS having capacity of 75 filling acts per day (CNGFS-75). Even at 100% load only selling price exceeding the level of 1500 gryvnias for 1000 m3 may guarantee profitability and, respectively, secure the timely repayment of a credit. That is why those filling stations are mainly bought by motor transport enterpris