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房地产 E网 CONFIDENTIAL BU Strategic Plan Template Book Training materials 8 June 2001 This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation； it is not a complete record of the discussion. Jim Ayala PHO Melissa Gil PHO Regina Manzano PHO Suresh Mustapha PHO Steve Shaw HKO Shelly Yeh PHO Choon-Gin Tan SIO 房地产 E网 1 STRATEGY PLANNING INSTRUCTIONS The objective of these templates is to provide completeness and consistency of BU strategic plan submissions. These templates are not intended to replace or constrain BU strategic thinking and should be adapted to reflect a particular BUs sectoral context as required Each section begins with a summary that is based on a synthesis of questions and analyses that follow. The suggested approach would be to first complete the relevant back-up analyses and then work towards the overall synthesis 房地产 E网 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive summary II. Environmental and internal assessment A. Industry dynamics and its implications B. Competitive assessment C. Internal assessment III. Strategic definition and implications A. Strategy articulation B. Strategic initiatives C. Financial projection D. Risks/contingencies and strategic alternatives IV. Exhibits 房地产 E网 3 BU STRATEGIC PLAN DEVELOPMENT Industry dynamics and implications Environmental and internal assessment Competitive assessment Internal assessment What are the major changes in industry dynamics and resulting opportunities and risks? What are your competitive strengths and weaknesses? How does your current business emphasis fit with industry opportunity and competitive landscape? Strategy articulation Strategic definition and implications Strategic initiatives Financial projections What strategy will your BU pursue over the next 3 years? What will be the impact of major strategic initiatives? What are the expected financial returns of your strategy? + + + + Risk/contingen-cies & strategic alternatives What strategic alternatives have you considered? + 房地产 E网 4 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Instructions: The Executive Summary provides a synthesis of the Environmental and Internal Assessments and the resultant BU Strategic Plans 房地产 E网 5 II. ENVIRONMENTAL AND INTERNAL ASSESSMENT 房地产 E网 6 IIA. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS SUMMARY A. What are the major changes in industry dynamics and the resulting opportunities and risks? A.2 How is industry structure changing (demand, supply, and industry chain economics)? What are the resulting opportunities and risks? A.3 What is the expected competitor conduct? What are the resulting opportunities and risks? A.4 What are the present and future external factors that could present new opportunities and risks? A.1 What industry are you competing in? What are the various segments in the industry? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 7 IIA. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS BACK-UP 1 A.1 What industry are you competing in? What are the various segments in the industry? Industry definition Industry segmentation Definition Sizing Instructions: Exhibit 1 could provide a useful framework for answering this question Industry definition: Industry segmentation: 房地产 E网 8 IIA. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS BACK-UP 2 A.2 How is industry structure changing with respect to demand, supply, and industry chain economics? What are the resulting opportunities and risks? Economics of demand By segment Substitutes, ability to differentiate Volatility, cyclicality Economics of supply Producer concentration and diversity Import competition Capacity utilization Entry/exit barriers Cost structure (fixed and variable) Industry chain economics Customer and supplier bargaining power Instructions: Exhibit 2,3 or 4 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 9 IIA. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS BACK-UP 3 A.3 What is the expected competitor conduct? What are the resulting opportunities and risks? Major industry competitor moves Marketing initiatives Industry capacity changes M&As, divestitures Vertical integration/disaggregation Alliances and partnerships Cost control and efficiency improvements Instructions: Exhibit 2,3 or 4 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 10 IIA. INDUSTRY DYNAMICS AND IMPLICATIONS BACK-UP 4 A.4 What are the present and future external factors that could present new opportunities and risks? Impact and likelihood of major industry discontinuities Changes in regulation/government policy Technological breakthroughs Instructions: Exhibit 2,3 or 4 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 11 IIB. COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY B. What are your competitive strengths and weaknesses? B.1 What are the capabilities required to succeed in this industry? B.2 How do you compare against these necessary capabilities? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 12 IIB. COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT BACK-UP 1 B.1 What are the capabilities required to succeed in this industry? Privileged assets that create competitive advantage, e.g. physical assets, location/”space”, distribution/sales network, intangible assets (intellectual capital, network, brands, talents) Distinctive skills/competencies that create competitive advantage, e.g.innovation, talent development Instructions: Exhibit 5 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 13 IIB. COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENT BACK-UP 2 B.2 How do you compare against these necessary capabilities? Strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs. necessary capabilities Benchmark performance against the industrys relevant key performance indicators (KPIs)*, with margin and market share as the required minimum Strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs. necessary capabilities: Benchmark performance against the relevant industrys KPIs: Instructions: Exhibits 6 and 7 could provide a useful framework for answering this question Instructions: Exhibit 8 could provide a useful framework for answering this question * KPIs are a handful of levers that drive the value of the industry/business 房地产 E网 14 IIC. INTERNAL ASSESSMENT SUMMARY C. How does your current business emphasis fit with the industry opportunities and the competitive landscape? C.1 Which segments of the business are providing the highest returns? C.2 What have been the performance trends along major BU KPIs? C.3 Which intangible assets* could be near-term potential sources of value? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings * Please refer to Exhibit 12 for further description 房地产 E网 15 IIC. INTERNAL ASSESSMENT BACK-UP 1 C.1 Which segments of the business are providing the highest returns?* Relevant BU segments (based on customer, product, geography, channel) Operating contribution estimates for each segment Instructions: Exhibit 9 could provide a useful framework for answering this question * Based on latest available, 1-2 year historical financial statements 房地产 E网 16 IIC. INTERNAL ASSESSMENT BACK-UP 2 C.2 What have been performance trends along major BU KPIs? KPI performance trends over the last 3-5 years, e.g. return on capital employed (ROCE), operating income, margins, capital employed Assessment of underlying trend drivers Expected evolution Instructions: Exhibits 10 and 11 could provide a useful framework for answering this question ROCE = Operating income x (1- tax rate) All interest bearing debt (short and long) + minority interest + stockholders equity 房地产 E网 17 IIC. INTERNAL ASSESSMENT BACK-UP 3 C.3 Which intangible assets could be near-term potential sources of value? Identification of in-house intellectual property, talent, networks, brand/image Conversion into sources of value Instructions: Exhibit 12 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 18 III. STRATEGIC DEFINITION AND IMPLICATIONS 房地产 E网 19 IIIA. STRATEGY ARTICULATION SUMMARY A. What strategy will your BU pursue over the next 3 years? A.1 Where to compete? A.2 What is your customer value proposition for the different segments you are going to serve? A.3 What is your business model? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings A.4 How does your chosen strategy exploit industry opportunities and address industry/competitive threats? Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 20 IIIA. STRATEGY ARTICULATION BACK-UP 1 A.1 Where to compete? Where are you going to compete along these dimensions and why: Target market Distribution channels Product (breadth and depth) Geographic scope Instructions: Exhibit 13 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 21 IIIA. STRATEGY ARTICULATION BACK-UP 2 A.2 What is your customer value proposition for the different segments you are going to serve? Target customer definition Benefits that you will offer the customers Product pricing Position against competition vis-vis the benefits provided and the price charged Who is your target customer? What are the explicit benefits you provide to your customers? What perceived value do you provide to the customer better than competition? How much value do your customers attach to the benefits you provide? 房地产 E网 22 IIIA. STRATEGY ARTICULATION BACK-UP 3 A.3 What is your business model? Delivery and communication of customer value proposition (value delivery system) Competitive advantage in delivering these benefits to the customer How will the value proposition be provided and communicated? Which of your BUs existing strengths can be leveraged? What skills/capabilities do you need to build? Instructions: Exhibit 15 could provide a useful framework for answering this question 房地产 E网 23 IIIA. STRATEGY ARTICULATION BACK-UP 4 A.4 How does your chosen strategy exploit the industry opportunities and address the industry/competitive threats? Industry attractiveness and implication review Alignment of strategy and environmental realities Instructions: A review of the section on Industry Dynamics and Implications, together with the frameworks used (Exhibit 2,3 or 4) is useful for answering this question 房地产 E网 24 IIIB. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES SUMMARY B. What will be the impact of major strategic initiatives? B3. How much value will be created from each strategic initiative? B4. What resources will each strategic initiative require? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings B1. What major strategic initiatives are required to successfully implement your selected business model? B2. What are the sources of value created from each strategic initiative? Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 25 IIIB. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES BACK-UP 1 B.1 What major strategic initiatives are required to successfully imple-ment your selected business model? Possible strategic initiatives list 房地产 E网 26 IIIB. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES BACK-UP 2 B.2 What are the sources of value created from each strategic initiative? Sources of value from each strategic initiative (e.g., EBIT, capital employed) Category of initiatives Volume increase EBIT impact via Price increase Cost reduction Other Invest-ment Capital employed impact via Divest-ment Capital efficiency* Other * E.g. improved working capital employment, increased asset utilization, changes to asset ownership Specific actionable initiatives 房地产 E网 27 IIIB. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES BACK-UP 3 Operating income ongoing impact 2001-2004 PhP millions Capital employed ongoing impact 2001-2004 PhP billions Present operating income Volume increase Price increase Cost reduction benefit Additional costs Total ongoing operating income Present capital employed Improved capital efficiency Divestments Investments (capex and acquisitions) Total ongoing capital employed B.3 How much value will be created from each strategic initiative? one-time EBIT impact = one-time costs = Financial impact from each strategic initiative Expected financial outlay for each initiative + + + = + = 房地产 E网 28 IIIB. STRATEGIC INITIATIVES BACK-UP 4 B.4 What resources will each strategic initiative require? Resources required to make strategy work Availability of resources in the organization Plan for filling resource gaps Categories of initiatives Specific actionable initiatives People/skills Resource requirements Funding Ex-Com involvement 房地产 E网 29 IIIC. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS SUMMARY C. What are the expected financial returns of your strategy? C.3 What is your expected cash generation ability over the medium term? C.4 What is your expected capital productivity? C.2 What is your projected net income in the next few years? C.1 What are the key assumptions? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 30 IIIC. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BACK-UP 1 C.1 What are the key assumptions? Profit and loss (e.g. revenues, costs, margin) Balance sheet Corporate center directives Corporate center assumptions BASE CASE Business unit assumptions Revenues Market size Market share Price Costs Input costs Production costs Other costs ( e.g. SG&A) Margins Gross margin Operating margin Capital Planned investments/ divestments Changes in working capital 2002 KEY FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 2003 2004 Growth rate Corporate center assumptions 2002 2003 2004 Key economic indicators GDP growth Consumer price index Exchange rate ( PhP / USD ) 91-day T-bill rate Corporate tax rate Instructions: These are the minimum required assumptions. Feel free to add other assumptions relevant to your BU 房地产 E网 31 IIIC. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BACK-UP 2 C.2 What is your projected net income in the next few years? Income statement forecast BASE CASE Historical Sales Cost of goods sold Gross profit Operating expenses Operating profit Other expenses Taxes Net profit 1999 FORECASTED INCOME STATEMENT 2000 In PhP million Forecast 2001* 2002 2003 2004 CAGR 1999-2004 Growth analysis Sales (%) Gross profit (%) Operating profit (%) Net profit (%) Margin analysis Gross margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) * * Key assumptions not listed earlier should be detailed at the bottom of the chart. The impact of planned initiatives on the revenues and costs should be established clearly with additional attachments if required Best estimates on possible actual results Instructions: These are the minimum required income statement accounts and analyses. Feel free to add other accounts and analyses relevant to your BU 房地产 E网 32 IIIC. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BACK-UP 3 C.3 What is your expected cash generation ability over the medium term? Cash flow forecast Instructions: These are the minimum required cash flow statement accounts. Feel free to add other accounts relevant to your BU BASE CASE Operating profit Depreciation and amortization Other non-cash operating expenses Net operating cash flow Increase/(decrease) in working capital Other operating cash flow Total operating cash flow FORECASTED CASH FLOW STATEMENT Historical 1999 2000 Forecast 2001* 2002 2003 2004 CAGR 1999-2004 Capital expenditure Other investing cash flow items Total investing cash flow Increase/(decrease) in debt Dividends Other financing cash flow Total financing cash flow In PhP million Key assumptions not listed earlier should be detailed at the bottom of the chart. The impact of planned initiatives on the fixed and working capital investments should be established clearly with additional attachments if required Best estimates on possible actual results * * 房地产 E网 33 IIIC. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BACK-UP 4 C.4 What is your expected capital productivity? Balance sheet forecast ROCE computation ROCE = Operating income x (1- tax rate) All interest bearing debt (short and long) + minority interest + stockholders equity Instructions: These are the minimum required balance sheet accounts and analyses. Feel free to add other accounts and analyses relevant to your BU BASE CASE Cash Accounts receivables Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total assets FORECASTED BALANCE SHEET Historical 1999 2000 Forecast 2001* 2002 2003 2004 CAGR 1999-2004 Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Short-term loans Long-term loans Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Total stockholders equity In PhP million Capital employed ROCE Total liab. & stockholders equity Ratio analysis Working capital turnover Debt-equity ratio Best estimates on possible actual results * 房地产 E网 34 IIID. RISKS/CONTINGENCIES & STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES SUMMARY D. What strategic alternatives have you considered? D.1 What are the associated risks to your chosen strategy? D.2 Re-examining industry opportunities and industry/competitive threats, what alternatives exist to your chosen strategy? Instructions: The answer to this overarching question requires a recapitulation of the sections main findings D.3 Beyond the 3-year time frame, what breakthrough strategic options may be possible? Instructions: These subsections contain a 1-2 sentence summary of the relevant findings 房地产 E网 35 IIID. RISKS/CONTINGENCIES & STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES BACK-UP 1 D.1 What are the associated risks to your chosen strategy? Identification of significant potential risks and plans to mitigate Sensitivity/scenario financial analysis Potential risks Business risk Regulatory risk Technology risk Integrity risk Macroeconomic risk Impact Likelihood Contingency Other 房地产 E网 36 IIID. RISKS/CONTINGENCIES & STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES BACK-UP 2 D.2 Re-examining industry opportunities and industry/competitive threats, what alternatives exist to your chosen strategy? Where to compete? Value proposition Business model Alignment with external realities Where to compete?: Alternative value proposition: Alternative business model: Alignment with external realities: Instructions: Based on a review of the section on Environmental and Internal Assessment, Strategy Articulation, and the frameworks used (Exhibit 2-4, 13-15), determine other potential strategic alternatives 房地产 E网 37 IIID. RISKS/CONTINGENCIES & STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES BACK-UP 3 D.3 Beyond the 3-year time frame, what breakthrough strategic options may be possible? “ Out-of-the-box” ideas Instructions: Think radical! Think out-of-the-box! 房地产 E网 38 IV. EXHIBITS Instructions: Please include all relevant supporting documentation in this section 房地产 E网 39 SEGMENT ANALYSIS Exhibit 1 ILLUSTRATIVE Industry boundaries Segments Industry segments Relatively distinct sub-groupings within the industry Market is relatively similar within the segment but different across segments Different industry dynamics may vary in importance in different segments 房地产 E网 40 Producers Industry S Technology breakthroughs Changes in government policy/regulations Domestic International Economics of demand Availability of substitutes Differentiability of products Rate of growth Volatility/cyclicality Economics of supply Concentration of producers Import competition Diversity of producers Fixed/variable cost structure Capacity utilization Entry/exit barriers Industry chain economics Bargaining power of input suppliers Bargaining power of customers Marketing Pricing Volume Advertising/promotion New products/R&D Distribution Capacity change Expansion/contraction Entry/exit Acquisition/merger/ divestiture Vertical integration Forward/backward integration Vertical joint ventures Long-term contracts Internal efficiency Cost control Logistics Process R&D Organization effectiveness Finance Profitability Value creation Technological progress Employment objectives External shocks Feedback tructure C onduct P erformance STRUCTURE-CONDUCT-PERFORMANCE (SCP) MODEL Exhibit 2 房地产 E网 41 Exhibit 3 1. Determinants of supplier power Differentiation of inputs Switching costs of suppliers and firms in the industry Presence of substitute inputs Supplier concentration Importance of volume to supplier Cost relative to total purchases in the industry Impact of inputs on cost or differentiation Threat of forward integration relative to threat of backward integration by firms in the industry 2. Determinants of barriers to entry Economies of scale Proprietary product differences Brand identity Switching costs Capital requirements Access to distribution Absolute cost advantages Proprietary learning curve Access to necessary inputs Proprietary, low-cost product design Government policy Expected retaliation 5. Rivalry determinants Industry growth Fixed (or storage) cost/value added Intermittent overcapacity Product differences Brand identity Switching costs Concentration and balance Informational complexity Diversity of competitors Corporate stakes Exit barriers 3. Determinants of buying power Bargaining leverage Buyer concentration vs. firm concentration Buyer volume Buyer switching costs relative to firm switching costs Buyer information Ability to backward integrate Substitute products Pull-through 4. Determinants of substitution threat Relative price performance of substitutes Switching costs Buyer propensity to substitute 2. New entrants 3. Buyers 4. Substitutes Intensity of rivalry 1. Suppliers Price sensitivity Price/total purchases Product differences Brand Identity Impact on quality perception Buyer profits Decision makers incentives 5. Industry competitors FORCES AT WORK FRAMEWORK 房地产 E网 42 Opportunities/Threats How are demand and supply expected to evolve? How do you expect the industry chain economics to evolve? What are the potential major industry discontinuities? What competitor actions do you expect? YOUR BU SWOT ANALYSIS Exhibit 4 CONVERT OPPORTUNITIES BUILD ON STRENGTHS NEUTRALIZE THREATS ADDRESS WEAK-NESSES Strengths/ Weaknesses What are your BUs assets/competencies that solidify your competitive position? What are your BUs assets/competencies that weaken your competitive position? Can be used as a thought starter for competitive analysis and internal assessment Surfaces potential opportunities/threats arising from factors external to the BU 房地产 E网 43 Physical asset Location/space Distribution/sales network Brand/reputation Patent Relationship with license allocator BHPs low-cost mines Telecomm/media company with rights radio spectrum Avons representatives Coca-Cola Pharmaceutical company with a wonder drug” Favored nation status with a key minister in liberalizing economy Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Cost/efficiency management Talent development 3M with new products McDonalds with QSC&V J&J with branded consumer health products Emerson Electrics Best Cost Producer program P&G brand management program Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order to succeed in the industry Example CAPABILITY PLATFORM: ASSESSMENT OF SOURCES OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (1/2) Exhibit 5 房地产 E网 44 CAPABILITY PLATFORM: ASSESSMENT OF SOURCES OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE (2/2) ILLUSTRATIVE Step 1: Ensure that these are the capabilities required to succeed in the industry. Use this list as a thought starter, add and delete as you see appropriate BU Overall Segments A B C Step 2: Assess your overall position relative to the capabilities required to succeed in the industry. Also, determine if these capabilities are relevant to the segments you serve Physical asset Location/space Distribution/sales network Brand/reputation Patent Relationship with license allocator Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Cost/efficiency management Talent development Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order to succeed in the industry Exhibit 6 Extremely relevant Somewhat relevant Irrelevant 房地产 E网 45 COMPETITOR CAPABILITY COMPARISON BU Overall Competitors A B C Step 3: Compare the strengths and weaknesses of your competitive position vs. the necessary skills Physical asset Location/space Distribution/sales network Brand/reputation Patent Relationship with license allocator Innovation Cross-functional coordination Market positioning Cost/efficiency management Talent development Privileged assets Distinctive competencies Necessary capabilities in order to succeed in the industry Exhibit 7 ILLUSTRATIVE 房地产 E网 46 BENC