A股市场策略周报：震荡中等待新的积极因素-2013-01-28.ppt

a,a,a,2013,1,28,300,0.9%,1.1%,0.8%,3.7%3.1%,pmi, s1010510120004 s1010510120038 2013 s1010512050004 s1010511090003 s1010512060002,1. a,20121210 .2012-12-10,2.,a,2013 . 2012-12-12,2012,3. a,20121217 . 2012-12-17,4.,a,201211224 . 2012-12-24,5.,a,2013,1,. 2012-12-31,6. a,20130107,. 2013-01-07,7. a 8. a,20130114 . 2013-01-14 20130121,. . 2013-01-21,1,3,4,5,6,8,9,12,13,14,16,18,20,21,22,23,24,a . 1 2 . 5 . 7 . 9 9 15,1/21-1/25,. 1,2 a,1/21-1/25, 1,. 1,1/21-1/25 1/21-1/25,. 1 2,1/21-1/25, 2,7 10 2012 11 2008,2012,pmi,. 2 . 2 . 3 3 . 4 6 6 7,15 17 19,10 12,4,cds 7 8 . 8 . 8 . 8 8 . 8 9 9 9,25,30,31,2,3,4,a 9,26 27,1/21-1/25 1/21-1/25,10 10,28,1/21-1/25,.10,29,1/21-1/25,.10,11 .11,32 33 34,2012 2012,300,.12 12 .12,35 36 1,500 h,300,13 13 2013 . 5,10 .13 .15,0121,0122,0123,0124,0125,0.5,-1.3%,1y,a,1,a,3.3%,3.7%,300 3.1%,0.9%,1.1%,1,0.8%,1,1/21-1/25,2,a,1/21-1/25,2380 2360,0.0% -0.5%,2340 2320,-1.0% -1.5%,-0.92%,-1.11%,-0.80%,2300 2280 2260,-2.0% -2.5% -3.0%,2240,-3.5%,-3.12%,wind,-4.0%,300 wind,-3.66%,3,4,1/21-1/25,6,5.3,2.5% 2.0%,1.8%,2.1%,2.0%,4 2 0,2.9,2.1,1.5 0.0,0.7,0.70.6,1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5%,1.1%,1.0%,0.1%,-0.1%,1.0% 0.3%,-2 -4 -6,-4.5,-3.5,-1.0 -4.0,-1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5%,-2.1%,-1.1%,-8,-7.2,3y,5y,7y,10y,15y,20y,wind,wind,nybot,1,10/01,10/04,10/07,10/10,11/01,11/04,11/07,11/10,12/01,12/04,12/07,12/10,13/01,a,5,wind,1/21-1/25,6,wind,1/21-1/25,0,1,27,2012,55578,5.3%,12,8952,17.3%,2012,5,5.2%,10.1%,12,5.66%,6.07%,2013,2013,7,pmi,%,8,%,54 53,2012/11 2013/01,2012/12,60,pmi,pmi,52 51 50,55 50,49 48,wind,45,wind,yy/mm,pmi,1,1,pmi,51.9,22,2,1,1,2,03/q1,03/q4,04/q3,05/q2,06/q1,06/q4,07/q3,08/q2,09/q1,09/q4,10/q3,11/q2,12/q1,12/q4,a,9 60% 45% 30% 15% 0%,10 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000,2012,%,25 20 15 10 5 0 5,15%,yy/qq,0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 11 12,10,ceic,2,wind,2012,2013 2 3,a,11,2008,2012,45o 20,2013,2013,4,a,1,2013,78%,2013,1,411 5530 2000,280,9.5%,4000,530,2.5 1 60% 3 2013,5,19,1,23,285,144,16.4,5,19,5,2013-1-4,2013-1-6,2013-1-8,2013-1-10,2013-1-12,2013-1-14,2013-1-16,2013-1-18,2013-1-20,2013-1-22,2013-1-24,a,4,15,10,2014,1,22,2%,2014,24,1,19,36,2008,1,5000,33,37.5 1,12,90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0,ceic,13 10.2% 10.0% 9.8% 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 9.0%,ceic,%,3,1,3,27,1% 2% 2014 6,200801,200808,200903,200910,201005,201012,201107,201202,201209,2013-1-2,2013-1-4,2013-1-6,2013-1-8,2013-1-10,2013-1-12,2013-1-14,2013-1-16,2013-1-18,2013-1-20,2013-1-22,2013-1-24,a,14,15,10,cds,bps,90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00,: ceic,24,310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230,bloomberg 2 2012,1,600,25.01%,26.02%,1,15,3.0%,2.4%,23,3.5%,4.1% 1-2,10,2004,0.1,12,2006 2000,23,(slo) 7,201207,201208,201209,201210,201211,201212,201301,201201,201202,201203,201204,201205,201206,1,0,8000,6000,2900,1900,a,16 10 % 9,17 8000,4,8 7 6 5 4 3 2,:1 :7 :14,6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 -4000,mm-dd 01-04 03-04 05-04 07-04 09-04 11-04 01-04 wind 18,-6000 19,11- 11- 11- 11- 12- 12- 12- 12- 13- 01 04 07 10 01 04 07 10 01 wind 12,6,6 %,10,7,3.3 % 3.1,5 4 3 2 1 0,2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5,2002-01,2005-01,2008-01,2011-01,-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10,20,wind,21,wind,10000,(,) 6900,300,(,) 2500,5900 4900 3900 4000 2000 0 900 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013,200 100 0 100,2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900,wind,200,wind,1800,8,1/4,1/11,1/18,1/25,2/1,2/8,2/15,2/22,3/1,3/8,3/15,3/22,1201,1202,1203,1204,1205,1206,1207,1208,1209,1210,1211,1212,04-06,04-20,05-04,05-18,06-01,06-15,06-29,07-13,07-27,08-10,08-24,09-07,09-21,10-12,10-26,11-09,11-23,12-07,12-21,01-04,01-18,1301,11-01,11-03,11-05,11-07,11-09,11-11,12-01,12-03,12-05,12-07,12-09,12-11,13-01,:,a,22,23,100,epfr_china,1500,0,1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500,mm-dd,-500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 -3500,50 0,-50,24 1000 800 600 400 200 0,wind wind,29,25 40 20 0 20 40 60,wind wind,4%,9,2% 0.83%,-5.63%,-5.86%,-6.46%,a,26 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%,1/21-1/25,27 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5%,0.64%,1/21-1/25 -0.69%,-4% -6% -8%,-2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5%,-2.21%,-2.44%,-2.74%,-2.72% -2.98%,wind,-4.0% pm2.5,-3.50% wind,28 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0%,1/21-1/25,29 3% 2.27%2.22%2.02% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5%,0.59%,1/21-1/25,-5.0% -6.0%,wind 2012,-6% -7%,wind,-5.43%,-6.20% slo 1,2,2,3,2013,2012e pe,2013e pe,2012e pb,2013e pb,a,h,h,2013e pb,( ( ( (,) ) ) ),6.5 6.1 6.3 7.6,6.1 5.6 6.2 6.7,1.21 1.16 1.21 1.26,1.05 1.03 1.05 1.10,6% 5% 4%,1.15 1.14 1.15,10,201101,201103,201105,201107,201109,201111,201201,201203,201205,201207,201209,201211,:,:,:,1,2,a,30,15,31,2013,250 200 150 100,1.03 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.01 1.00,120 115 110 105 100 95,50 0,15,1.00 0.99 0.99,90 85,1/10 1/12 1/14 1/16 1/18 1/20 1/22 1/24,wind,wind,2012,12,103.7,107.6,97.8,100,19,10,2012,10,2012,12,3 2 1,1,30% 2012,20-30,/,1,1.2%,11.5,1.4% 3.4%,2 2.2% 2013 -1.2%,2005 2008,2011,1-2,8%-10% 2012,4.9% 12,7.3% 2012 11,a 2012,32 33,2012 wind 2012 wind,300,2007 300,34 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0,300,wind,2007,ttmpe,12,-,a 500 500,ah,h,ah,96.17,96.76,h,35 10%,500,300 500,300,36,h,a/h,8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%,1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0,gics,wind,bloomberg bloomberg,wind,5 2013 2013 3 2013 2013 2013 2013 13,a,2013,2012,1800,2013,2,2013 2013 2013 (2013-2015) 2013 5% 2013,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013,7 2,/,2013,2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013,3 1 2 1 2,3.15 2012,28%,2,2013,android,2013,wind 14,2,a,a,a,pmi,pmi,3 a,a 10%,a,4,a,2013,1,2013,2,1,pmi,2013/1/28-2013/2/1 1 wind 15,-,“,”,analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. “ ”,/,(,),(1),(2) / / 2013 1,300,20%,6,300,5%,20%,2,6 300,6 30